BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: “Amid an abysmally high disapproval rating for Congress, two Democratic lieutenant governors are trying to bring an outside-the-Beltway perspective to the Senate.” Lt. Govs. Juliana Stratton (D-IL) and Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) are both pitching themselves as progressive D.C. outsiders as they both face congressional opponents in their Democratic primaries.
STATE-LEVEL MIND. Stratton told Hotline she’s highlighting her work alongside Gov. JB Pritzker (D), leaning into voters’ dissatisfaction with Washington. Flanagan isn’t running with Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) support, but told Hotline she sees her proximity to the state and her distance from D.C. as beneficial to her Senate bid.
RELOCATION. “The Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association has made a concerted effort this cycle to help its members pursue different offices in open primaries. … The group has sponsored several internal surveys for both primaries and donated $10,000 to each campaign last year.” (Hotline reporting)
A PROMOTION? Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), an NRSC vice chair, is making a play to become NRSC chair for the 2028 cycle. Moreno is locking early support from several of his GOP colleagues, especially as no other Republican appears eager to run for the post. (Semafor)
VOTING: “Activists who say they are in coordination with the White House are circulating a 17-page draft executive order that claims China interfered in the 2020 election as a basis to declare a national emergency that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting.” Peter Ticktin, a lawyer advocating for the executive order, argued the national emergency would empower President Trump “to ban mail ballots and voting machines as the vectors of foreign interference.” Ticktin declined to specify the coordination he has had with White House officials, “citing safety concerns,” and “the White House declined to elaborate on Trump’s plans.” (Washington Post)
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries projected confidence Democrats will take the majority at the House Democrats’ annual retreat this week, but three factors could complicate that path: money, the Voting Rights Act, and “messy primaries.” Democrats acknowledge they may be outspent, as the NRCC outraised the DCCC last year and Trump’s super PAC has more than $300 million on hand. (Punchbowl News)
SPEAKING OF PRIMARIES. The DCCC “ is coming under fire from an … adversary: Outsider Democratic congressional candidates.” The committee recently released its first list of quality candidates, irking others running in those primaries. “A group of 17 Democratic primary candidates running against the ‘Red to Blue’ endorsees put out a joint statement on Tuesday slamming the DCCC.” In the letter, they wrote, “You cannot argue that democracy is on the ballot in November while narrowing democracy in the primaries from now through August.” (Axios)
POLLING ROUNDUP: Fresh polling from the Texas Senate primaries shows a muddled race less than a week before voters head to the polls.
NC SEN. A Harper Polling survey (Feb. 22-23; 600 LVs; +/-4%) of the GOP primary conducted for Carolina Journal found former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley at 38%, 2024 NC-08 candidate Don Brown (R) got 8%, and 2024 state Superintendent of Public Instruction nominee Michele Morrow (R) got 2%. Four other candidates collectively got 3% and 50% were undecided. (Carolina Journal)
SD SEN. A Public Policy Polling survey (Feb. 17-18; 685 RVs) conducted for 2022 nominee Brian Bengs (I) found Sen. Mike Rounds (R) ahead of him, 47%-35%, with 19% undecided in a hypothetical matchup. The poll found Rounds ahead of former state trooper Julian Beaudion (D), 49%-32%, with 19% undecided. (Hotline reporting)
TX SEN. A Blueprint Polling survey (Feb. 23-24; 472 LVs; +/-4.51%) of the Democratic primary found state Rep. James Talarico (D) ahead of Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-30), 52%-40%, with 6% undecided. A GOP primary poll (Feb. 23-24; 529 LVs; +/-5.26%) found state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) at 42%, Sen. John Cornyn (R) at 30%, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-38) at 14%. 13% undecided.
RUNOFFS. Paxton led Cornyn, 49%-36%, in a runoff scenario with 16% undecided. Paxton led Hunt, 53%-29%, with 18% undecided. Cornyn led Hunt, 42%-37%, with 21% undecided.
TX GOV. A Democratic gubernatorial primary poll (Feb. 23-24; 472 LVs; +/-4.51%) found state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) at 61%, rancher Bobby Cole (D) at 3%, former Rep. Chris Bell (D) at 4%, and six other candidates collectively at 5%. 21% were undecided. (release)
FL GOV. A James Madison Institute Poll (Feb. 13-16; 1,200 RVs; +/- 2.77%) found Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19) leading former Rep. David Jolly (D), 41%-36%. The independent candidate got 6% and 17% were undecided.
GOP PRIMARY. Donalds led the Republican field with 33%, followed by Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (R) with 15%, former state House Speaker Paul Renner (R) with 9%, and former DOGE adviser James Fishback (R) with 3%. 40% were undecided.
DEM PRIMARY. Jolly led Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings (D) in the Democratic primary, 31%-23%. 44% were undecided. (release)
ME SEN: At least three unions backing oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) have urged Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the DSCC to stop supporting Gov. Janet Mills (D) in the Democratic primary, arguing her record on labor is weaker. United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain spoke with Schumer this month about the race, warning him about Democratic leaders’ “failure to adequately listen to working-class voters.” (NBC News)
TX SEN:Atlantic reporter Elaine Godfrey said armed guards escorted her from a Lubbock rally held by Crockett on Monday, leaving her “on the edge of a Texas-county road.” Godfrey said one guard was told by Crockett’s team that the reporter is “a top-notch hater and will spin. She needs to leave.” (The Atlantic) Crockett said there is “no evidence” that a journalist was kicked out of her campaign event. The congresswoman alleged that Godfrey has been sued for defamation and lost, a claim Godfrey denies. (CBS News)
MAGA RIFT. Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, who supports Paxton, is slamming two of Trump’s top campaign aides, Trump adviser Chris LaCivita and Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, for backing Cornyn in the GOP race. Fabrizio is working for Cornyn’s campaign and LaCivita is a senior adviser for the pro-Cornyn Texans for a Conservative Majority. (Politico)
REPUBLICANS: In his visit to Plover, Wisconsin, Vice President JD Vance reminded the audience several times of the moment during the State of the Union address when Democrats refused to stand when Trump asked them to stand if they believed the first duty of the government is to protect the lives of citizens over immigrants. (New York Times)
2028 WATCH: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) “will be the special guest at a Michigan Democratic Party dinner in Detroit on April 18.” (Detroit News)
THE AI BATTLEFIELD. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) “is appealing to a growing number of people who have concerns that AI’s rapid build-up, fueled in part by taxpayer dollars, could displace jobs, increase energy costs and hurt the environment.” His positions stand in direct contrast to Trump’s, Vance’s and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s “embrace of the AI industry.” (NBC News)
NEW MEXICO: EMILYs List is endorsing Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) for lieutenant governor, according to a release first shared with Hotline. Lt. Gov. Howie Morales (D) is term-limited. Oliver faces state Sen. Harold Pope Jr. (D) in the June 2 primary. (Hotline reporting)
CA GOV: 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer (D) gave his campaign $28.5 million this month, “bringing his personal stake in the race to $66.7 million” according to new campaign filings. He’s on track to break 2010 GOV candidate Meg Whitman’s (D) campaign spending record of $144 million. (New York Post)
NH GOV: Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern (D) announced he will not run for governor. The announcement comes a week after he urged “fellow Democrats to ‘look to the future’ following” 2024 candidate Cinde Warmington’s(D) campaign launch, stirring speculation he may run. Warmington and 2024 GOV candidate Jon Kiper (D) are the lone Democrats running to challenge Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R). (WMUR)
REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP: The Utah campaign to repeal the anti-gerrymandering law Proposition 4 hit its statewide goal Thursday, crossing the nearly 141,000 signatures needed. It has currently cleared the threshold in 20 of 26 required state Senate districts as well. “The campaign currently sits at 90% or more of the verified signatures needed in six additional Senate districts. Unless there's an unexpected stall, full ballot qualification is imminent.” (Utah Political Watch)
FLORIDA. “Conversations with nine political consultants in Florida, mostly Republicans, show keen interest but little agreement on what will, or should, happen” with the congressional map as the state prepares for a special redistricting session in April. The largest looming issue might be timing, as the Republican leaders pushed the original candidate filing to June to accommodate the special session. A potential legal challenge could potentially scramble that, though, and leave candidates to file in April. (Florida Politics)
VIRGINIA. Virginia for Fair Elections, the outside group supporting the ballot referendum in the commonwealth, released a six-figure digital, streaming, and Spanish-language radio ad aimed at targeting Black and Latino voters. The spot explains why Virginia is redrawing its map. (Politico)
CALIFORNIA: Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-03) filed paperwork to run in CA-05, which would set up a potential clash with Rep. Tom McClintock (R-05), according to a local registrar’s office. (release) As the filing began to make rounds on social media, Kiley responded saying he pulled papers in CA-05 and CA-06 and that a final decision will come Monday. (X)
WHITE HOUSE: Trump’s State of the Union address drew 32.6 million viewers, down from the roughly 36 million who watched his joint address to Congress last year. (AP)
Paging the Hotline
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National Journal Radio Bonus Episode: Redistricting Rodeo
Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado talks to senior political correspondent James A. Downs and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter House editor Erin Covey on the unprecedented wave of mid-cycle redistricting.
The White House has not officially confirmed plans to enact the draft executive order that would declare a national emergency on voting but if it chooses to adopt the order, it would face unprecedented levels of resistance. Under the Constitution, states have the power to control election processes, not the federal government, as Hotline reported. The attempt to declare a national emergency over elections—taking some power from the states—has never been tested in court, but the Supreme Court recently displayed its willingness to split with the president. The clock is ticking until the 2026 midterms, and there’s no guarantee a court battle over the executive order would be resolved by November. The intention behind the executive order—and what it could mean for 2028 and beyond—sparks more concern than the likelihood of it being in effect in entirety in November. — Erika Filter
“The Power 4 conference commissioners are expected to join dozens of sports celebrities and dignitaries on March 6 at the White House in a roundtable discussion with President Donald Trump about the future of college athletics.” (ESPN)
“The Trump administration has worked hard to ensure that this year’s celebration of the nation’s 250th anniversary celebrates President Trump as well. Perhaps nothing reflects its concerted efforts better than a plan for a one-dollar coin depicting the president in profile, despite a national tradition of avoiding symbolism that even faintly evokes a monarchy.” (New York Times)
Rooster's Crow
The House and Senate are out.
President Trump will travel to Corpus Christi, Texas today. At 4:05 p.m., he will receive an energy briefing, and at 4:35 p.m., he will deliver remarks on energy. The president will participate in a TV interview before departing Corpus Christi for Palm Beach, Florida, for the weekend.
Swizzle Challenge
Then-Sen. Benjamin Harrison (R-IN) introduced a bill to establish the Grand Canyon National Park.
No one won yesterday’s challenge. Here’s our challenge: Which representative killed the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia?
“MY STYLE of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward. I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after.” — President Trump (The Art of the Deal”)
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