Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. Today we’re tracking:

• HOW the Trump administration suffered two big losses last night
• WHY Gallup will no longer poll presidential approval
• WHO is considering a challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

Let’s get after it.

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What's News

WHITE HOUSE: The House “rejected an attempt to block votes that would end the national emergency underpinning” President Trump’s “tariffs, opening the controversial policy up for challenges for the first time in nearly a year.” Since last March, the chamber had preventively muzzled challenges to the administration’s tariffs, but the prohibition on votes expired last month, and three Republicans crossed party lines to reject a renewal of the rule change. (Washington Post)  

• FREE TO GO. “A grand jury refused to sign off on criminal charges for several Democratic lawmakers,” including Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), for their November video calling on military and intelligence officials to refuse illegal orders. “It is very rare for a grand jury to decline an indictment sought by prosecutors, because it only hears the government’s version of events and doesn’t require unanimity.” (Wall Street Journal)

CAMPAIGN FINANCE: Democrats are expressing concern over Republicans’ cash advantage, which amounts to nearly double what Democrats have across all leading arms of the national parties and the super PACs associated with the House and Senate arms, accounting for debts. Awaiting a Supreme Court decision in NRSC v. FEC, which would remove limits on how much party committees can spend in coordination with candidates, senior Trump officials inside and outside the RNC “have been planning for months to take maximum advantage of potential new rules … by limiting expenses and hoarding cash to buy cheaper TV ads later.” (New York Times) 

POLLING ROUNDUP: Gallup will no longer measure presidential approval ratings, as it has done since 1938. Gallup spokesperson Justin McCarthy said: “The context around these measures has changed. They are now widely produced, aggregated and interpreted, and no longer represent an area where Gallup can make its most distinctive contribution.” Gallup will continue running its “Social Series” polls, “which track a variety of social and political attitudes; quarterly surveys focused on the workplace; and the Gallup World Poll, conducted in roughly 140 countries.” (Washington Post)

• GEORGIA. In the Georgia governor’s race, a co/efficient poll (Feb. 8-9; 1,123 LVs; +/-3.18%) found new race entrant health care executive Rick Jackson (R) leading with 24%, followed by Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) with 16%, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) with 9%, and state Attorney General Chris Carr (R) with 3%. Other candidates got 6% and 42% were undecided. (release)
• MINNESOTA. An Emerson College poll (Feb. 6-8; 1,000 LVs; +/-3%) showed Democrats ahead in Minnesota’s Senate and governor races.
• MN SEN. A poll of the Senate race found Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) and Rep. Angie Craig (D-02) ahead of former sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R) in head-to-head races. Flanagan led Tafoya, 47%-41%, with 12% undecided. Craig led Tafoya, 47%-40%, with 13% undecided. 
• MN GOV. A poll of the governor’s race found Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) ahead of state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R) and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell (R) in general election matchups. Klobuchar led Demuth, 51%-38%, with 11% undecided. Klobuchar led Lindell, 53%-31%, with 16% undecided. (release)
• TX-18. A Lake Research Partners poll (Feb. 2-8; 430 LVs; +/-4.7%) conducted internally for Rep. Christian Menefee (D) found Menefee leading Rep. Al Green (D-09), 49%-29%. 10% were undecided. Menefee ran in the special election to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D), while Green was drawn into the district after Texas Republicans removed a Democratic seat in the Houston area. (release) 

SC SEN: 2020 presidential candidate Mark Sanford (R) is considering a bid against Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), “pushed by many of the same forces that backed” former Lt. Gov. André Bauer’s (R) short-lived Senate bid last year. A former governor and congressman, Sanford “would bring statewide name identification and a war chest with more than $1 million to a campaign against Graham.” He could also bring some baggage and face pushback from Trump, who supports Graham. (FITSNews)

ME SEN: The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC reserved $24 million in TV ad spending against Sen. Susan Collins (R) for the general election, with more to come on digital spending according to a spokesperson. (Hotline reporting) The GOP-aligned SLF has invested $36.8 million in ad spending for Collins between early August and Election Day. (release)

AL SEN: Defend American Jobs, an affiliate of the crypto-aligned Fairshake PAC, is committing to spend $5 million for Rep. Barry Moore (R-01) as he faces several opponents in the GOP primary to succeed retiring Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R). The independent expenditures for Moore, who serves on the House Agriculture Committee “where crypto legislation was on the agenda last year,” intend to highlight the congressman’s endorsement from Trump. (CoinDesk)

SENATE ENDORSEMENT ROUNDUP: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM), a “Fight Club” senator, endorsed Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX 30) in the open Democratic primary in Texas. Other progressive senators haven’t weighed into the race yet. (Semafor)

• ILLINOIS. Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-17) endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) over Reps. Robin Kelly (D-02) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-08) in the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D). (X)

• MISSISSIPPI. The Congressional Black Caucus PAC endorsed District Attorney Scott Colom (D) against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R). (release)

NE SEN: 2024 candidate Dan Osborn (I) canceled a Tuesday D.C. fundraiser that would’ve been co-hosted by Dana Chasin, a former adviser to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential bid who was mentioned in the recently released Epstein files “as allegedly transporting young girls for the late convicted sex offender.” Chasin previously donated $3,300 to Osborn’s 2024 Senate bid.

• SEPARATION. An Osborn spokesperson said: “Anyone who hurts kids or engaged in other illegal activity needs to be arrested and prosecuted.” The spokesperson added that Chasin’s contribution has been donated “to a nonprofit organization in Nebraska whose mission is to end child abuse and trafficking.” (Politico)

STATE OF THE STATES: “The National Governors Association said it will no longer hold a formal meeting with Trump when governors are scheduled to convene in Washington later this month, after the White House planned to invite only Republican governors.” Eighteen Democratic governors also announced they would boycott the dinner at the White House after Trump left Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) off of the guest list. (AP/Washington Post)

VOTING: The Republican-backed SAVE America Act, which would require people to prove citizenship and present photo ID in order to vote in federal elections, would make “it harder for many eligible voters to cast ballots and for states to run their elections.” Voting-access advocates say married women who changed their names “and naturalized citizens, who may not have a birth certificate or passport that matches their driver’s license,” would be most affected. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) came out against the legislation, saying it infringes on states’ authority to run their own elections. (NOTUS)

• TENUOUS. An FBI affidavit unsealed “Tuesday shows that a criminal investigation into 2020 election results in Fulton County,” Georgia, was set off by Director of Election Security and Integrity Kurt Olsen “and relied heavily on claims about ballots that have been widely debunked.” As Trump’s then-campaign lawyer, Olsen worked closely with Trump to overturn the 2020 election and the two spoke multiple times on Jan. 6, 2021. The affidavit refers to conspiracy theories about elections in Georgia, “including arguments about fraudulent and duplicate absent ballots, election-machine tabulator tapes and missing ballot images.” (New York Times)

• ON THE RECORD. Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons and CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott said during a hearing before the House Homeland Security Committee that they had no plans to guard precincts ahead of the midterm elections. (Hotline reporting)

DEMOCRATS: At a House Homeland Security Committee hearing grilling ICE and CBP leaders, some Democrats laid into the leaders for their agencies’ “disregard of the law.” Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI 13) reiterated his proposal to “abolish ICE” and said the agencies had “lost the trust of the American people.” Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY 10) called ICE’s actions “un-American and outright fascist.” (Hotline reporting)

VIRGINIA: Former federal prosecutor J.P. Cooney (D) launched a campaign for a district that does not exist yet as a gerrymandering referendum awaits in April. Cooney, the former “top deputy to” former special counsel Jack Smith, “the special prosecutor twice indicted” Trump, was fired in January 2025 as the president removed all prosecutors affiliated with Smith. 

• WHERE. Cooney will run in a new VA-07, which, if approved, will run from the Washington suburbs to the West Virginia border to the Richmond exurbs. Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-07) will have a renumbered district, and both are expected to favor Democrats. (New York Times)

NY-17: Army veteran Cait Conley (D) wants to paint one of her primary opponents, Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson (D), as a “far left political operative” based on a strategy memo the Judge Street Journal obtained from the Conley campaign. According to the Judge Street Journal, the Conley campaign passed along the memo on behalf of The Bench, an outside group backing younger candidates. The campaign said in an email the document was on background without attribution, but terms were never agreed upon before the nemo was sent. Conley’s campaign wants to portray Davidson’s work for EMILYs List and a handful of senators as a negative against Rep. Mike Lawler (R), also a political operative by trade. 

• BIGGER PICTURE. “The memo provides a candid glimpse into the mechanics of a candidate whose stump speech leans more ambiguous outrage than affirmative vision of politics. Conley usually opts instead for a folksy rant about Lawler’s misdeeds. … The strategy has allowed her to avoid staking out full positions on thornier issues.” (Judge Street Journal)

REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP: As the state’s Supreme Court takes up a challenge to Virginia Democrat’s mid-decade congressional redistricting effort, legislators pushed the map forward with both the House of Delegates and state Senate passing identical versions of the bill on party-line votes. Each body now must pass the other’s bill, before sending it onto the governor’s desk for final approval, and Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D)is expected to sign the legislation in the next few days. The new map is expected to give Democrats a 10-1 partisan advantage within the delegation. (Washington Post)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

Editor-in-Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook discuss Democrats' Senate battleground strategy and Republicans' panic over potentially losing the majority.

Hair of the Dog

“Immediately After Medaling, Olympian Publicly Confesses to Cheating on His Girlfriend” (NBC News)

Our Call

President Lyndon Johnson’s “Daisy” ad showed a young girl counting to 10 before she’s interrupted by an ominous announcer, who counts down from 10 leading to a nuclear explosion. The spot, arguably the most famous political ad in American history, was used to suggest Barry Goldwater would begin a nuclear war. The ad, seen by 50 million on primetime TV in 1964, produced a strong emotional response within the public and among politicos, with many concerned it crossed a line. The controversial ad is mild by today's standards, as the rise of social media has enabled the president to make offensive, viral posts that are often met with a shrug. That Trump's most recent video, portraying the Obama family as apes, was among his first to solicit major criticism from within his own party is a barometer for what's now considered fair in love, war, and campaigning—showing how our presidential standards have shifted over the years. — James A. Downs

Fresh Brewed Buzz

“All flights to and from El Paso International Airport in Texas have been halted for ‘special security reasons,’ the Federal Aviation Administration said early Wednesday.” (NBC News)

“One Generation Runs the Country. The Next Cashed In on Crypto.” (Wall Street Journal)

Here are all the local D.C. organizations that tried to save the Washington Post. (The Verge)

“Trump admin removes Pride flag from Stonewall National Monument” (CNN)

“Vice President JD Vance’s office deleted a social media post on Tuesday that broke with administration policy in acknowledging the Armenian genocide after Mr. Vance and his wife, Usha Vance, visited a memorial to the estimated 1.5 million Armenians killed by Ottoman Turks over a century ago.” (New York Times)

“EPA's reversal of the formal 2009 scientific finding that greenhouse gases threaten humans will be issued Thursday. … Rescinding the ‘endangerment finding’ is the Trump administration's most direct effort yet to rip out climate regulations root and branch—and make it harder for a successor to impose new ones.” (Axios)

“The Movie That Inspired Gregory Bovino to Join Border Patrol” (New Yorker)

Rooster's Crow

The House is in at 11 a.m. The Senate is in at 2 p.m.

President Trump will visit with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at 11 a.m. At 4 p.m., he will participate in the Champion of Coal event. The president will meet with Special Envoy to the United Kingdom Mark Burnett at 5:30 p.m. 

Swizzle Challenge

Ron Brown was the first Black chairman of the DNC.

Tom Davis won yesterday’s challenge. Here’s our challenge: Prior to then-Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) losing his seat to Majority Leader John Thune, who was the last senator to defeat a Senate Majority Leader?  

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“Well, initially, my reaction to all this was, ‘I don’t care. I don’t know what the big deal is.’ But now I see what the big deal is, and it was worth investigating. … And the members of Congress that have been pushing this were not wrong.” — Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) after reading the Epstein files (The Hill)

...Chaser

“Wow. I didn't know that. You're telling me now for the first time.” — President Trump after learning of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s death (C-SPAN)

Kirk A. Bado, Wake-Up Call! Editor

Associate Editor: Hannah Thacker

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