Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. There are 14 days until Election Day and we’re tracking:

• HOW much money the RNC transferred to GOP committees
• WHERE the DCCC is launching coordinated ad buys
• WHAT President Trump is promising Alaska voters 

Let's get after it.

Think you can outplay the politics pros?

Three quick games that test how well you really know the people, races and policies shaping the day’s politics

What's News

REPUBLICANS: The RNC “transferred more than $44 million between mid-August and mid-October” in a roughly even split to the NRSC and the NRCC. Many of those transfers will be disclosed in a Tuesday night filing. “At least $6 million more is set to be sent to those two committees by Election Day, the committee said.” The RNC said it raised $18.5 million in September and entered October with $76 million cash on hand. (New York Times)

FIRST IN HOTLINE: State Sen. Sean McCann (D) launched a six-figure ad buy highlighting promises to ban members of Congress from trading stock, block tax breaks for the wealthy, and force drug companies to lower prescription drug prices. He said his opponent, Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI 04), won’t take the same actions.

• THE RACE. Internal polling has shown McCann within the margin of error, and both parties have spent more than $7 million on the race. (release)

OH-10: The DCCC is launching an ad buy against Rep. Mike Turner (R) with multiple six-figure campaigns, starting with an ad of a woman saying Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker (D) would stand up for her constituents. (Politico)

OK GOV: The DGA is pumping $500,000 into Oklahoma's gubernatorial race, a state President Trump won by 34 points. An internal poll from state Rep. Cyndi Munson (D) shows businessman Mike Mazzei (R) leading her within the margin of error, 49%-45%. But the poll conducted by WorkBench (Oct. 8-13; 600 LVs) also shows 50% of those who supported state Attorney General Gentner Drummond (R) in the nasty, two-and-a-half month runoff “plan to support Munson. The DGA excitement over that figure comes despite a small 72-person sample size for that subgroup. Even with a large margin of error, the poll suggests potential crossover appeal between the two.” (Politico)

IA GOV: Businessman Zach Lahn (R) outraised state auditor Rob Sand (D) thanks to a hefty investment from the RGA’s PAC. Lahn hauled in $16.9 million since mid-July, $11.8 million of which came from the RGA. Sand raised $16.3 million, including $5.5 million from the DGA and $1.3 million from his family. Sand leads with cash on hand in the final stretch, boasting a $5.4 million war chest. Lahn has $400,000 on hand and $2.5 million in outstanding loans. (release/Radio Iowa/Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Republicans recruited a fresh group of Latino nominees to compete in Texas’ redrawn congressional districts, but the imprecise maps “threaten to backfire, imperiling the promising political careers” of nominees like former federal prosecutor Eric Flores (R) in TX-34. (Washington Post)

• WHERE’S LEADERSHIP? Speaker Mike Johnson will visit MT-01 today to campaign with conservative radio host Aaron Flint (R) and former U.S. Attorney for Montana Kurt Alme (R), the Senate nominee. (NBC Montana)

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Democratic donor Steve Pajcic, who’s funded $7 million into New Deal for All PAC to boost Democratic Senate candidates in Florida, Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina, said “his family could double that and expand into more long-shot states.” Pajcic said he’s using AI to calculate the “optimum allocation” of ad money without consulting Democratic Party leaders. (Axios)

VOTING: Justice Department officials said they had charged 28 green card holders in California “with violating federal voting laws,” which Justice Department spokesperson Trey McCotter said supported the administration’s claims that 20,000 noncitizens are on California’s voter rolls. McCotter said all 28 of the people arrested were on the list of 20,000 the DOJ provided California officials with last week. (New York Times)

NV-02: 2024 NV-04 candidate David Flippo (R) received a $7,000 donation from Nevada resident Marilynn Mack, twice the legal limit. Instead of refunding half the donation, Flippo’s campaign reattributed half of the donation to Joyce Mack, her mother and a well-known philanthropist who died two years ago. When asked about the discrepancy, the campaign again adjusted the finance report, moving the other half of the donation to cover debt from the primary.

• LOVE LOST. Flippo is in a surprisingly close bid to hold the seat for Republicans. Outgoing Rep. Mark Amodei (R) called his potential GOP successor a “fraud.” (Wall Street Journal)

FL SEN: Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is hosting a virtual fundraiser for state Rep. Angie Nixon (D) on Tuesday afternoon, boosting the democratic socialist’s candidacy against Sen. Ashley Moody (R) in next month’s special election. “The fundraiser marks a major step up in Schumer’s involvement in the Florida Senate race,” especially after he donated to Nixon’s campaign and met with her in D.C. (Punchbowl News)

OH SEN: Enough Promises Ohio, a super PAC boosting Party for Socialism and Liberation nominee Greg Levy as a spoiler to former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), more than tripled investment in the race to nearly $1.6 million. A Levy spokesperson said that Levy and the campaign “completely condemn this attempt to manipulate voters.” (Politico)

AK SEN: Trump is promising billions in “investments in a long-desired pipeline, millions for rural broadband and data center development” in Alaska in the hopes of propelling Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R) against former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) next month. The president has promised billion-dollar investments from South Korea and Taiwan that could help fund the Alaska LNG pipeline, even as “the South Korean and Taiwanese governments put out statements that were far less definitive about those promised investments.” (Politico)

POLLING ROUNDUP: New Ohio polling found Democrats with a large lead.

• GA GOV. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll (Oct. 7-15; 1,000 LVs; +/-3.1%) conducted by the UGA School of Public and Internal Affairs Survey Research Center found healthcare executive Rick Jackson (R) and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D), 46%-45%. 8% were undecided. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

• OH SEN. A Marist University poll (Oct. 15-18; 1,176 RVs; +/-3.9%) found Brown ahead of Sen. Jon Husted (R), 51%-42%. 3% backed someone else and 4% were undecided.

• OH GOV. Former state Health Department Director Amy Acton (D) led 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R), 51%-43%. (release)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado brings on DCCC communications director Courtney Rice to check in on the race for the House.

Hair of the Dog

“Experts tested whales’ teeth for nuclear fallout—and accidentally found the oldest killer whale on record” (BBC Wildlife)

Our Call

With early voting underway in many states, beware of drawing partisan conclusions from turnout data. Early voting data can sometimes signal a party’s motivation level, but there’s often little correlation between early voting and the final margins thanks to shifting voter behavior. Comparing early turnout to 2018 doesn’t account for the COVID pandemic, which upended voter behavior across the country. And comparing early turnout to 2022 data doesn’t account for similar fluidity, including some bubbling Democratic distrust in mail-in voting this cycle. There remains just one foolproof poll: Election Day. — Zach Blackburn

Fresh Brewed Buzz

“Ignore the Rumors That Susie Wiles Is About to Be Canned. Trump’s Fiercely Loyal—and Astoundingly Resilient—Chief of Staff Isn’t Going Anywhere” (Chris Whipple, Vanity Fair)

“Jon Stewart is staying with 'The Daily Show' through the next presidential election.” (New York Times)

“Judge Says There’s ‘No Universe’ Where Tree Removal Isn’t Linked to Trump’s Golf Course Plans” (Washington Sun)

“The Trump administration has not approved the transfer of interceptor missiles to Ukraine that are needed to protect the country from Russian missile and drone attacks.” (Washington Post)

“Everyone Thinks They’re Going to Win” (Gabe Fleisher, Wake Up To Politics)

Rooster's Crow

The House and Senate are out.

President Trump will participate in policy meetings at 10 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. At 1:30 p.m., Trump and Vice President JD Vance will make an announcement. The president will participate in signing time at 4:30 p.m., then will depart the White House for Greenville, North Carolina. At 7 p.m., he will deliver remarks, then will return to the White House.

Swizzle Challenge

Kansas Gov. Charles Robinson (R) was the first governor to be impeached by a state legislature.

Warren Goldsmith won yesterday’s challenge. Here’s our challenge: Who was the first Hispanic female governor?

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“We’re just trying to be foundationally authentic about who I am,” he told Anna about fatherhood. “When people say, ‘Oh, well, look at him, like he dances to Taylor Swift, how could he?’ It’s like, yeah, because I have two daughters, and the number of times we’ve turned on Taylor Swift and danced in the living room — that’s real.” — 2018 MI GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) on fatherhood and masculinity (Washington Post)

...Chaser

“But my Mama told me/ It's alright / You were dancing through the lightning strikes / Sleepless in the onyx night / But now the sky is opalite” — Superstar Taylor Swift (“Opalite”)

Kirk A. Bado, Hotline Editor

Managing Editor: Hannah Thacker

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