What's News
TX SEN: The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC is making an initial investment on behalf of state Rep. James Talarico (D), running statewide ads on digital and streaming platforms. The ad campaign is launched through Texas Forever, a SMP affiliate created last week. The group’s first ad slams Paxton over his office’s handling of a child sex abuse case against Adam Hoffman, reaching a deal that allowed him to serve less than a month in prison. (New York Times)
FIRST IN HOTLINE: A DCCC Analytics poll (Sept. 21-23; 495 LVs; +/-4.4%) of WI-01 found Rep. Bryan Steil (R) and emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman (D) tied at 48%, with 5% undecided. President Trump won the district by a little more than 4 points in 2024, but the poll found him underwater with a 39% approval rating and 55% disapproval rating. (release)
- FLASHBACK. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moved the race to Lean Republican last week, saying the partisan lean of the district makes it competitive, even as Steil is expected to once again outperform Trump’s numbers.
IN THE STATES: The DGA is helping fund over $5.5 million in Spanish-language ads in Arizona and Nevada. The DGA is backing Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), whose race has shifted to safer Democratic territory, and Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford (D), who is challenging Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) in a toss-up race. Latino voters shifted heavily towards Trump in 2024, helping him secure both southwestern swing states. But Democrats saw the voting bloc shift back towards them in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests last year, and the DGA invested heavily in Spanish-language ads in New Jersey. (Hotline reporting)
VOTING: A federal judge blocked the Trump administration’s authority “to withhold some federal counterterrorism funding from states that don’t meet its election administration demands.” One FEMA “antiterrorism grant announcement included a list of election-related requirements,” like verifying voters’ citizenship, and said “20% of grants for states and urban areas would be withheld until they comply.” (AP)
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: The DCCC is expanding its playing field with its latest round of ad buys, an $11 million campaign across 35 districts. “Some of the ads will air in districts” Trump won handily in 2024, like KY-06, NC-11, and VA-01. (Semafor)
- WHIPPED INTO SHAPE. House Minority Whip Katherine Clark has planned a 24-district tour of battleground races next month, which “will incorporate all of the female frontline Democratic lawmakers and “red to blue” candidates looking to flip seats.” (Semafor)
- NEW DEM, OLD TRICKS. “The centrist New Democrat Coalition is expanding its endorsements into firmly Republican territory” as its political arm endorses Democrats in NC-03, NE-01, NV-02, NY-21, OH-10, SC-01, and WI-01. (Politico)
GEORGIA: Democrats expected healthcare executive Rick Jackson (R) to flood the airwaves, but “they didn’t expect” former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) “to go practically dark on the airwaves for the better part of September—a key stretch of the campaign—in the critical battleground state.” Since the June 9 runoff, the Jackson campaign “has spent nearly $60 million itself, but Bottoms has relied on outside help, with her campaign having spent just over $314,000 on ads.” From now until Election Day, “Jackson’s campaign has reserved about $32.7 million, while Democrats have booked $287,000 during that stretch.” (NBC News)
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GA SEN. Georgia Peanut Commission Chair Donald Chase, a Republican voter, endorsed Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) over Rep. Mike Collins (R-10). Chase cited the senator’s push to preserve federal UNICEF funding for a program that gave peanut-based food to children abroad, even if Trump’s cuts ultimately weren’t reversed. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
OH SEN: Some of the Buckeye State’s “most devoted conservatives don’t know who” Sen. Jon Husted (R) is, making some voters believe that former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is still in office. Husted’s “campaign has leaned into the misconception, spending millions of dollars on ads that refer to his opponent as ‘Senator Sherrod Brown.’” (New York Times)
AK SEN: The Last Frontier PAC, a group backing Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R), launched a $600,000 broadcast buy that refers to a New York Times report on former Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D) alleged abusive behavior toward her staff. The 30-second ad, which is in black and white, ends with the message: “If that’s how Mary Peltola treats her closest aides, imagine what she’d do to you.” (Axios)
2028 WATCH: Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) has grown close to Vice President JD Vance “and is seen as a top prospect to become a potential 2028 running mate.” (Axios)
NY-21: Dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) hired a Ukrainian national to conduct administrative work for his campaign, potentially violating election laws prohibiting the practice. (Schenectady Daily Gazette)
FL-25: Former Rep. Peter Deutsch (D), a South Florida congressman from 1993 to 2005, crossed party lines to endorse former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer (R) in his bid against Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D). Deutsch argued a Democratic majority would produce the “most anti-Israel [House speaker] in the history of the United States.” (Florida Politics)
REPUBLICANS: Former special counsel Jack Smith will tell lawmakers that he “will not be silenced by continued threats of prosecution” and that he stands by the criminal investigations he brought against Trump, according to a copy of his prepared remarks before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Republican senators will likely press Smith “about his team’s access to the phone records of GOP lawmakers as prosecutors investigated Trump’s efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to” former President Biden. (AP)
WHITE HOUSE: Director of Election Security and Integrity Kurt Olsen and at least six other prosecutors have departed the Justice Department’s “grand conspiracy” investigation in southern Florida, a wide-ranging case against officials who investigated Russian interference in the 2016 election and prosecuted Trump. Their exits reportedly follow increased pressure to secure indictments before the midterm elections. (Daily Mail)
POLLING ROUNDUP: Two polls in Florida and Ohio project a rosier-than-expected picture for Democrats in the Senate and gubernatorial contests.
- FL SEN. A Change Research survey (Sept. 25-27; 1,063 LVs; +/-2.8%) conducted for Freedom Project USA found Sen. Ashley Moody (R) at 48% and state Rep. Angie Nixon (D) at 47%. 5% were undecided.
- FL GOV. Former Rep. David Jolly (D) and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19) were statistically tied, 48%-46%. 5% were unsure. (release)
- OH SEN. A Marist University poll (Sept. 24-27; 1,298 RVs; +/-3.8%) found Brown ahead of Husted, 51%-43%. 1% backed another candidate and 4% were undecided.
- OH GOV. Former state Health Department Director Amy Acton (D) led 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R), 50%-44%. Other candidates got 3% and another 3% were undecided. (release)
- OH-09. A DCCC Analytics poll (Sept. 22-23; 481 LVs; +/-4.5%) found Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) and 2024 nominee Derek Merrin (R) tied, 48%-48%, with 4% undecided.. (release)
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