Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. There are 8 days until Election Day and we’re tracking:

• WHY the Department of Justice moved to preemptively question the results in Alaska
• WHO is leading in the four Pennsylvania swing districts
• WHICH Trump property sees the most GOP money 

Let's get after it.

NJ Games: Bill or Bull

Real bill or total bull?

Congress has written some wild bills. We wrote a few too. Can you tell whose is whose?

What's News

HOUSE AD ROUNDUP: The DCCC launched a nearly six-figure coordinated ad buy with Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder (D) in his bid against former Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher (R) in TN-05. The ad, shared first with Hotline, features Tennesseans praising Molder’s work and criticizing Hatcher for missing meetings while in office. President Trump carried the newly redrawn district by 23 points and this buy represents the DCCC’s deepest incursion yet into Trump territory. (release)

• OTHER BUYS. The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC launched a $2.2 million TV buy in MN-01, where teacher Jake Johnson (D) faces Rep. Brad Finstad (R), and a $380,000 TV buy in IN-05, where state Sen. J.D. Ford (D) faces Rep. Victoria Spartz (R). Trump won all three districts by double digits.

AK SEN: The Department of Justice, spurred by Trump, preemptively filed a lawsuit last week to block certification of the Alaska Senate race if Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R) loses to former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) next month, alleging that former U.S. Forest Service employee Dan J. Sullivan (R) could confuse voters. The lawsuit urges the court to delay certification if “all votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan” had “been cast instead for Senator Sullivan.”

• NIGHT AND DAY. A campaign spokesperson for the senator said he’ll “let the DOJ complaint run its course.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) offered a different tone, arguing in a social media post that “Alaskans don’t need any help voting for their preferred candidates, and the State of Alaska has already handled this by clearly distinguishing the candidates on this year’s ballot. The Department of Justice should never have filed this lawsuit.” (CNN)
• STRIKE IT. A motion filed on behalf of Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC over the weekend urged U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason to dismiss the Trump administration’s lawsuit, arguing it’s “an unprecedented pre-emptive strike on democratic elections.” (NBC News)
• ON PAUSE. Peltola’s campaign said the Democratic nominee sustained minor injuries following a car crash on Saturday night, delaying some of her upcoming campaign events. Peltola sought medical attention after a vehicle transporting the former congresswoman and her family to an Alaska Federation of Natives banquet was struck by another vehicle. (KTUU)

OHIO: 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s (R) “decision this week to air a deeply personal attack ad against” former state Health Department Director Amy Acton (D) “confirmed that the” gubernatorial race “is slipping away from him,” prompting the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter to shift the race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter)

• OH-07. Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter (D) “is positioning himself as a family man who has paid his dues helping his blue-collar community of Brook Park as a city council member for the past nine years.” His opponent, Rep. Max Miller (R), faces allegations of physical abuse against his ex-wife and daughter, which he’s denied. (Mother Jones)

MICHIGAN: A $1.8 million ad buy from the Michigan Republican Party to back Rep. John James (R-10) is sparking “a swift legal complaint from state Democrats,” who say Republicans are trying to skirt around contribution limits. The RGA-created fund, Michigan Victory 2026, received $2 million from GOP megadonors Dan DeVos and Douglas DeVos. The state party then received $2 million from Michigan Victory 2026 and promptly spent $1.8 million on ads after the RGA cut its existing ad reservations. “The James campaign is pushing an untested legal theory, leaning on a recent US Supreme Court ruling that allows political parties—at the federal level—to spend unlimited amounts to support their candidates.” (Bridge Michigan)

• ONE LAST TIME. James’ campaign listed the $1.8 million ad-buy as an in-kind contribution on the last campaign finance report before the election. Between Aug. 25-Oct. 18, he hauled in $4.2 million, just shy of Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s (D) $4.3 million. James led with $1.2 million in the bank compared to Benson’s $681,000. (MLive)

• SENATE BARBS. Trump repeatedly called 2018 GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) a “jihadist” during his Sunday rally in Port Huron, comparing a vote for 2024 nominee Mike Rogers (R) to the United Airlines Flight 93 passengers fighting off terrorists on 9/11. The president argued El-Sayed “would be the only senator that will have to go through a metal detector before he’s allowed to go into the Senate.” (Washington Post)

VOTING: “Two of the three judges on the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals appeared skeptical of” the Justice Department’s lawsuit demanding “California election officials set aside thousands of mail ballots from people the federal government suspects may not be citizens.” A district judge had scheduled a hearing for Tuesday, “but the federal government appealed to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, seeking an expedited decision.” Circuit Judge Mark Bennett “questioned whether the appellate court even has jurisdiction to hear the case even before a ruling by the lower court.” (AP)

WHITE HOUSE: While Trump “has publicly discussed issuing pardons for top aides and issued pardons for billionaires and major donors,” White House attorneys are now considering “whether to issue mass pardons to junior staffers” who have carried out the president’s agenda. “A pardon for all junior administration personnel is viewed as unlikely … but the president could issue blanket pardons for all employees involved in particular policy areas, such as deportations, war or trade.” (Washington Sun)

2028 WATCH: In the eight years since she was elected, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY 14) “has tempered her combative style, cozied up to establishment Democrats and distanced herself from some extreme positions pushed by other Democratic socialists—such as abolishing prisons and the police.” Her strategy aims to widen her appeal to a broader Democratic base but “risks alienating progressive and far-left voters she needs in any bid for higher office.” (Wall Street Journal)

REPUBLICANS: Most of the donors aligned with the Make America Healthy Again movement who donated to support HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential bid are missing this cycle. “Allied MAHA super PACs and nonprofits have spent far less than the $100 million promised, dropping only about $4 million in support of candidates since January 2025.” (Wall Street Journal)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: “Senior Democrats are tempering their expectations about how big of a House majority they might win, as both parties see a tightening battlefield” in a recent round of internal polling. Polls show tightening races in the Midwest and Colorado. “Republicans’ deluge of money also seems to be helping shore up some imperiled Florida seats even as they face serious problems in North Carolina and Texas.” (Politico)

• JEFFRIES. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries cast doubt on whether an impeaching Trump would be worthwhile if Democrats take the House, but he signaled an impeachment vote of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth would be in the cards. Still, Jeffries refuses to “get out ahead” in discussing his potential speakership. (CNN)

SC SEN: Warren Norman, the son of Rep. Ralph Norman (R-05), said in a Friday FITSNews op-ed that he’s “leaning” toward voting for 2022 SC-01 nominee Annie Andrews (D) over Sen. Darline Graham (R). The congressman, who was defeated by Graham in the August GOP special primary runoff, said he’d back the incumbent in November “but indicated that his family would not vote for her.” (The Hill)

• ‘DATA CENTER DARLINE.’ Building the Future, a super PAC aligned with the data center industry, has invested $1.5 million to boost Graham’s reelection. Andrews has called for a two-year moratorium on data centers and nicknamed the senator “Data Center Darline.” (New York Times)

ME SEN: Sen. Susan Collins (R) said she convinced the White House to lift some of its tariffs on Canadian agricultural products roughly a week before Election Day. Collins, who faces a tough reelection against former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), “has been vocal about how the U.S.’s trade war with Canada could affect residents of Maine and other states that border the country’s northern neighbor.” (Washington Sun)

IOWA: Businessman Zach Lahn (R) “voted in Iowa years ago but voted in Kansas in 2018, 2020 and 2022. He re-registered in Iowa in October 2024—just in time to qualify to run for office in 2026.” But previously unreported voting records in 2024 “show he requested that his ballot be mailed to him—in Kansas.” Lahn explained that his “official mail has gone to my assistant for years.” (New York Times)

• IA-03. A Republican woman featured in a campaign ad accusing state Rep. Sarah Trone Garriott (D) of being dangerous for children herself pleaded guilty of endangering children. Dallas Center Councilwoman Shellie Flockhart (R) pleaded guilty to charges “after authorities said she drove drunk with two of her children in the car in 2017.” (Washington Post)

POLLING ROUNDUP: The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena polled the four Pennsylvania swing House districts that could determine control of the House. Democrats were at worst tied. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) led state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) by 18 points in all four districts.

• PA-01. The poll (Oct. 16-22; 400 LVs; +/-5.7) found County Commissioner Bob Harvie (D) at 48%, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) at 46%, and 6% undecided.

• PA-07. The poll (Oct. 16-22; 401 LVs; +/-5.7) found firefighter Bob Brooks (D) at 49%, Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) at 44%, and 6% undecided.

• PA-08. The poll (Oct. 16-22; 402 LVs; +/-5.8%) found Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) at 51%, Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R) at 46%, and 3% undecided.

• PA-10. The poll (Oct. 16-22; 401 LVs; +/-5.7) found Rep. Scott Perry (R) and 2024 nominee Janelle Stelson (D) tied at 48%. (New York Times)

• KS GOV. A Global Strategy Group poll (Oct. 18-21; 600 LVs; +/-4%) conducted for state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D) found her and state Senate President Ty Masterson (R) each with 47%. (release)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado brings on DCCC communications director Courtney Rice to check in on the race for the House.

Hair of the Dog

“Oh my gourd. The elephants at Denver Zoo are at it again” (Colorado Public Radio)

Our Call

The Trump administration so far has questioned election processes states that are likely to report their election results late. The Justice Department has alleged rampant noncitizen voting in California, which can take days if not weeks to process mail-in ballots on and after Election Day. The DOJ has issued a preliminary challenge to the results in Alaska, which uses ranked-choice voting and can also take weeks to tabulate. These early sowings of doubt will likely have time to fester as officials take the time to deliver accurate results. Officials and voting-rights groups are tasked with pre-bunking many of these doubts and false claims, but Trump’s message after the California primaries baselessly accusing Democrats of cheating and questioning delayed results appears to have been only the beginning. — Erika Filter

Fresh Brewed Buzz

"The US conflict with Iran is likely to escalate again after the midterm elections, despite voters and Republicans in Washington increasingly wanting to see the war brought to a swift end." (Semafor)

“Venezuela’s opposition leader Machado returns after months in exile, as doubts over democracy deepen” (AP)

Fox News hosts Sean Hannity and Ainsley Earhardt “wed Saturday with a slew of Fox News personalities and government officials in attendance; President Trump was at a pre-wedding ceremony at Mar-a-Lago the night before but did not attend the nuptials.” (Hollywood Reporter)

“Your Cheat Sheet to the 2026 General Elections” (Bolts)

“A Post analysis found that Republican campaigns and political groups have spent nearly $3 million at Trump businesses since he returned to office, with spending shifting to Palm Beach, Florida.” (Washington Post)

“New Kimberly Guilfoyle Financial Report Illuminates Debts” (Washington Sun)

Rooster's Crow

The House is in at 12:30 p.m. for a pro forma session. The Senate is in at 5:30 p.m. for a pro forma session.

President Trump will participate in policy meetings at 11 a.m., 11:45 a.m., and 12:30 p.m. At 1:30 p.m., the president will meet with Ambassador to France and Monaco Charles Kushner. Then, Trump will depart the White House for Corinth, Mississippi. He will deliver remarks at 7 p.m., then will return to the White House. 

Swizzle Challenge

West Virginia Gov. Cecil Underwood (R) is both the youngest person to be elected governor and the oldest to be elected and serve.

No one won Friday’s challenge. Here’s our challenge: Which colony did not attend the First Continental Congress?

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“I looked at his ass, and I've never done that with a man before. By the way, I looked at one hell of a beautiful ass before: Nicki Minaj. That's hard to miss.” — President Trump at a Michigan rally on his would-be press secretary (C-SPAN)

...Chaser

“I like big butts and I cannot lie / You other brothers can't deny / That when a girl walks in with an itty bitty waist / And a round thing in your face, you get sprung” — Sir Mix-a-Lot (“Baby Got Back”)

Kirk A. Bado, Hotline Editor

Managing Editor: Hannah Thacker

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