Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. Today we’re tracking:

• WHY the New Mexico GOP didn’t field candidates in three critical statewide races
• WHAT President Trump said about Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY 04)
• WHICH swing state is safe for Democrats—for at least this cycle

Let’s get after it.

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What's News

NEW MEXICO: The state Republican party “failed to qualify candidates for roughly a third of the top statewide offices this year, including for U.S. Senate, state auditor, and state treasurer” this cycle, but party officials and political observers say the problems plaguing the state party run far deeper than one election cycle. 

• MANAGING DECLINE. Ideological and regional political divides, crushing defeats, and gerrymandering “have greatly contributed to an air of helplessness that’s hindering both candidate recruitment and voter enthusiasm.” Observers and operatives agree that rebuilding the state party runs through Albuquerque, and should be done through fielding candidates for local races. With voter registration numbers trending in their favor, whether Republicans can seize on the next favorable political environment may depend on if they can unify the party and form a strong candidate base to recruit from. (Hotline reporting)

KY-04: President Trump “resorted to name-calling Wednesday” as he visited Kentucky to boost former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein (R) in his challenge to Rep. Thomas Massie (R). Trump called Massie “the worst person” and said there’s “something wrong with him.” The president criticized Massie for voting against the GOP tax bill passed last year. Gallrein took the stage to say Massie “stands with the ladies of The View.” He then led a “U-S-A” chant. (Roll Call) 

OK SEN: Rep. Kevin Hern (R-01) officially launched his Senate bid on Wednesday, becoming the first elected official to join the race after Trump nominated Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) as his next DHS secretary. In his campaign launch video, Hern boasts his MAGA bona fides and criticizes “RINO Republicans” while 2024 presidential candidates Chris Christie (R) and Nikki Haley (R) and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) are on screen. (The Oklahoman)

• MEETING TIME. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is set to meet with Trump at the White House today. The governor is likely considering oil and gas tycoon Harold Hamm (R) or Stitt senior adviser Dustin Hilliary (R) for Mullin’s seat.
• LONG-TERM PLAY. If Stitt chooses to run for the seat, a Hamm appointment could be beneficial to him and help mend a tense relationship with Trump. The 80-year-old Hamm is a donor to Trump’s ballroom project and was considered Trump’s “energy whisperer” during his first term. (West Wing Playbook)

POLLING ROUNDUP: House races in Florida and Maryland get a temperature check, while new polling drops in the Texas Senate race and the fight for TX-23. 

• FL-20. A Listener Group/Political Matrix News poll (Feb. 24-28; 400 LVs; +/-3.5%) of the Democratic primary found activist Elijah Manley (D) at 35%, Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) at 31%, 2021 candidate Dale Holness (D) at 13%, two other candidates at 1% each, and 19% undecided. A poll without the congresswoman found Manley at 47%, Holness at 34%, two other candidates collectively at 3%, and 16% undecided. (release)

• MA-08. A Workbench Strategy poll (Feb. 17-19; 400 LVs; +/-4.89%) conducted for attorney Patrick Roath (D) found Rep. Steven Lynch (D) leading Roath, 62%-36%. (release)

• TX SEN. A Public Policy Polling survey (March 5-6; 565 LVs; +/-4.1%) conducted for the Texas Justice Fund, a Democratic-aligned 501(c)(4) group, found state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) narrowly ahead of Sen. John Cornyn (R), 45%-42%, in the runoff. 13% were undecided. (release)

• TX-23. A Public Policy Polling survey (March 10-11; 521 RVs) conducted for Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC found a close contest between 2024 candidate Brandon Herrera (R) and attorney Katy Padilla Stout (D). Herrera came in at 42%, with Stout close behind at 40%. 18% were unsure. (Texas Tribune)

PA GOV: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted the Pennsylvania governor’s race from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat, the first time it has rated the seat solid for Democrats since 2006. “Despite landing their preferred recruit against” Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), and preventing 2022 nominee Doug Mastriano (R) from running, “Republicans look no closer to ousting the moderate incumbent than they were a year ago. Shapiro has an approval rating consistently around 60%, a gargantuan cash-on-hand advantage and a decisive polling lead over” state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R), “making it almost impossible to see him coming up short in his quest for a second term.” (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter)

MA SEN: Rep. Seth Moulton (D-06) is attempting to convince a wave of voters who aren’t registered Democrats to become Massachusetts Democratic Party convention delegates to boost his odds of making the September ballot. “Candidates must clear the relatively low bar of getting support from at least” 15% “of the thousands of delegates at the May convention to qualify for the primary ballot.” Sen. Ed Markey’s (D) sway with the party’s progressive wing could make it harder for Moulton to reach the 15% threshold. (Boston Globe)

WHITE HOUSE: Trump “touted lowering prescription drug prices in Ohio,” attempting “to project economic and political strength even as war in Iran has scrambled financial markets and hurt his poll numbers.” In Cincinnati, he said U.S. involvement in Iran was “an excursion that will keep us out of a war.” (AP)

REPUBLICANS: “A group of longtime Trump allies, immigration restrictionist groups and hawkish policy experts have formed the Mass Deportation Coalition to lobby the Trump administration to refocus its efforts on deporting all eligible migrants. The group has commissioned new polling from” McLaughlin & Associates, which Trump has used in all his presidential campaigns, to show a majority of Americans still approve of mass deportations. The coalition “plans to share that data with White House officials, agency heads and every member of Congress.” (Politico)

NV GOV: Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), one of the Republican’s most vulnerable governors, is up with his first TV ad of his reelection bid. In the spot, titled “Together,” Lombardo says “when we work together instead of yelling with each other, we get things done,” touting plans for the state’s first children's hospital and reducing crime rates. (release)

VOTING: Democrats say at town halls, their constituents express concerns over how Trump may interfere in the midterm elections. (NOTUS)

2028 WATCH: Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ.), Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) are slated to speak at the DNC’s National Finance Committee retreat this weekend, an opportunity for some of the party’s biggest donors to rub elbows with the politicians. (Politico)

REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP: Arizona could become the next state to see redistricting reform, as the Legislature considers a bill that would alter the state’s independent redistricting commission to “ensure that a single tiebreaking vote can't give one party control.” The legislative referendum would expand the commission from five members to nine members and require at least six “yea” votes to pass a map. Currently, there are two Democrats, two Republicans, and one independent chair on the commission. The chair makes the tiebreaking vote. If the Arizona House approves the measure, voters would decide on it in November. (Axios Phoenix)

• VIRGINIA. Former Del. A.C. Cordoza (R), who chairs two PACs opposing the redistricting referendum, defended the messaging tactics in mailers which featured images from the Jim Crow era. Cordoza, who is Black, said the mailers are meant to target Black voters, whom he believes will be disenfranchised under the proposed gerrymandered map. He told “people in Richmond who are upset about this mailer” to “grow up.” (Virginia Mercury)

DEMOCRATS: Van Hollen and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) have proposed new tax cuts that “have sparked the first real debate about what Democrats should stand for when they next face voters, beyond saying ‘affordability’ and prioritizing health care.” Their critics “argue that the party’s mission depends on doing good things with public funds—not pitching taxes as a pox that people need ‘relief’ from.” (Semafor)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado talks to senior political correspondent James A. Downs and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter House editor Erin Covey on the unprecedented wave of mid-cycle redistricting.

Hair of the Dog

"Seattle Mariners launch ‘incredible’ food vessel ferry boat as excited fans say ‘I’ll take three’" (The Sun)

Our Call

President Trump has shown a greater interest in defeating Rep. Thomas Massie than in other primaries over the past few years. His allies have already spent millions against him, and the president held a rally in Massie’s district last night just to trash him. Last cycle, Trump made knocking out former Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) his pet project, but he was not as forceful as he was with Massie. Aside from endorsing now-Rep. John McGuire (R-VA 05) and participating in a tele-rally, Trump wasn’t as hands-on compared to today. McGuire narrowly defeated Good by fewer than 300 votes. Massie is a different animal than Good: The Kentuckian is in his seventh term compared to Good's second; Massie has carved out a well-known brand for himself in a state that gives credence to libertarian-minded politicians; and Trump has called for his defeat before, though without a concerted effort behind it. Despite the president pulling out all the stops to try to defeat a thorn in his side, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein may find out just how hard it is to unseat an incumbent. — James A. Downs

The Trump administration and Republicans have gutted government institutions and cut health care spending, marketing their changes as rooting out wasteful spending and a tax cut that improves voters’ bottom lines. Democrats currently face an uphill battle in defending the eat-your-vegetables institutions Republicans have slashed. Up to now, policy-dense proposals expanding social services have been Democrats’ bread and butter, but as critics knock Democrats for being too elite, some Democrats are proposing their own snappy cuts while continuing to criticize the majority party’s slashes to health care. Tax-cutting proposals from Sens. Chris Van Hollen and Cory Booker show how the populist shift has come for both parties. — Erika Filter

Fresh Brewed Buzz

“U.S. at Fault in Strike on School in Iran, Preliminary Inquiry Says” (New York Times)

President Trump’s “new pick to lead the Department of Homeland Security,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), “employed a supervisor at his family plumbing business who illegally stored weapons and ammunition in an office safe in 2009, according to federal court records.” (Washington Post)

“Hackers join U.S. and Israel's fight with Iran” (Axios)

“The Pentagon has not permitted photographers to cover Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s last two briefings on the war in Iran, and hasn’t explained the change in longstanding policy.” (AP)

“Police officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, have asked a federal judge to allow their lawsuit over the long-delayed installation of a plaque honoring their service to continue, days after The Washington Post revealed it was quietly hung at the end of a hallway in the middle of the night.” (Washington Post)

“Oklahoma lawsuit alleges secret scheme by State Farm to cheat homeowners” (NBC News)

“The FBI has warned police departments in California that Iran aspires to retaliate for American attacks by launching offensive drones against the West Coast.” While the FBI, local law enforcement, and the governor’s office are monitoring the threat, there is no current intelligence indicating specific plans. (KGO)

Rooster's Crow

The House is in at 9:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. The Senate is in at 9:30 a.m.

President Trump will receive his intelligence briefing at 10 a.m. He will participate in a policy meetings at 1:30 p.m. and at 3:15 p.m. At 4 p.m., he and first lady Melania Trump will participate in a Women’s History Month event.  

Swizzle Challenge

Air Force Secretary James H. Douglas Jr. created the United States Air Force Academy.

No one won yesterday’s challenge. Here’s our challenge: Which first lady prayed for her husband to lose the presidential election?

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“Bipartisan? Up here? There’s no bipartisan up here.” — Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) on the partisan split on intelligence briefings (NOTUS)

...Chaser

“Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.” — Poet Dante Alighieri (Inferno)

Kirk A. Bado, Wake-Up Call! Editor

Associate Editor: Hannah Thacker

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