Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. Today we’re tracking:

• HOW many times President Trump can say the war is over until it’s actually over
• WHO is spending big in the Virginia redistricting referendum
• WHY grassroots Republicans might turn on Senate Majority Leader John Thune

Let’s get after it.

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What's News

WHITE HOUSE: As the war with Iran intensifies, President Trump “has prioritized efforts to calm the financial markets—trying to keep oil prices from exploding upward, stocks from cratering and interest rates from surging. When the markets have flashed danger, Trump has been quick with a social media post or a remark to claim the war he launched last month could soon end.” He has mentioned ending the war in Iran 12 times since March 2, just days after the war began, but the strategy “appears to be wearing thin as the president’s various pronouncements have done little to change the reality that a large chunk of the world’s energy supplies is stranded by the conflict.” (AP/Axios)

MI-07: “FEC records show that” the NRCC and the MI-07 Republican committee “paid Butzel Long for legal services in the fall of 2024.” The revelation comes after a report that Rep. Tom Barrett’s (R) campaign paid Butzel Long for services after his wife, Ashley, began working there. The campaign also paid consulting firm Aristotle after Ashley began work for the firm. A Barrett spokesman said the compensation is unrelated to her employment. (Detroit News)

• HOWEVER. Even if the payments were independent of Ashley’s employment, that hasn’t stopped the campaign from capitalizing on the controversy. The campaign has started soliciting donations from the report. In a fundraising email obtained by Hotline, Barrett said “Ashley is tough … but she doesn’t deserve to be the focus of national Democrats. … Their attacks are the lowest of lows.” (Hotline reporting)  

GA GOV: The State Ethics Commission found probable cause that mysterious dark money group Georgians for Integrity “should have registered as an independent political committee and disclosed its spending on thousands of ads targeting” Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R), spending at least $19 million. The commission “also accused the group of failing to register and report lobbying activities.” The investigation will now move toward an administrative trial on the alleged violations. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

MN SEN: Democrats’ ICE revolt “has given” Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) “momentum among the delegates who will decide” the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party's endorsement in May. Yet several Democrats believe a Flanagan endorsement wouldn’t completely doom Rep. Angie Craig’s (D-02) chances in the August primary, even as she vocally regrets her vote for the Laken Riley Act. (Axios Twin Cities)

CA GOV: An attorney for Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-14) sent a cease-and-desist letter to FBI Director Kash Patel demanding “that the bureau refrain from releasing decade-old investigative files involving the congressman’s purported ties to a suspected Chinese intelligence operative.” His attorney argued “there was no justification for releasing the files, especially since the congressman had assisted the FBI in its investigation.” (Washington Post) 

• ON PAUSE. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) paused his investigation into unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud after seizing more than 650,000 special election ballots. “Bianco said the probe was ‘on hold’ because of ‘politically motivated lawsuits and court filings’” in a reversal for Bianco, who has defended and broadened the investigation’s scope. State Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) has filed a series of legal challenges to block Bianco’s investigation. (Los Angeles Times)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: American Action Network, the nonprofit arm of the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, launched a $10 million ad buy ahead of Tax Day. The ads will air on broadcast, streaming, and digital across 37 districts, and they accuse Democrats of voting for the “largest tax hike in American history.” Watch an ad airing in a Democratic district and a Republican district here and here. They air today through April 15. (release)

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN: As House Republicans return to their districts amid the longest government shutdown on record continues at DHS, they “insist they’ve done their part in getting bills passed, and that the” Senate “is where legislative productivity has stalled.” (NOTUS) At the same time, House GOP leadership “is privately sniping at” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and “hardline GOP senators are calling on him to bring the chamber back into session immediately.” As tensions over the shutdown grow, some Republican senators are embracing Trump’s calls to undo the filibuster. (Punchbowl News)

VOTING: “Once-fringe theories” surrounding the 2020 election “have gained new traction inside the White House, drawing in top officials at the Justice Department, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and intelligence agencies.” Last week, Attorney General Pam Bondi “quietly authorized” U.S. Attorney Dan Bishop “to pursue election-related probes across the country. … Bishop, a former congressman who voted against certifying” former President Biden’s “2020 win, will also examine voter-roll data the Justice Department has been collecting from states in an effort to determine whether noncitizens have illegally registered or cast ballots.” (Wall Street Journal)

2028 WATCH: In a talk at Saint Anselm College’s Institute of Politics in New Hampshire, former White House adviser Rahm Emanuel (D) presented his “six for ‘26” plan ahead of the midterms, saying Democrats “should call for raising the minimum wage, a ratepayer bill of rights, health care cost controls, ethics reform, bans on anyone under 16 using social media and federal officials being able to engage in prediction betting.” (New Hampshire Union Leader)

• MAN WITH A PLAN. He is separately proposing taking “20% of the $38.3 billion the Trump administration plans to spend on ICE detention centers and” diverting “it to community colleges.” Emanuel will tout the new plan in an appearance on The View and four college stops in South Carolina. (Axios)

REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP: House Majority Forward, the sister organization of Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC, has put a total of $20 million toward supporting Virginia Democrat’s mid-cycle redistricting plan, a “staggering amount” that highlights the importance of the election for the Democratic Party. The state’s “vote yes” campaign, Virginians for Fair Elections, reported $38.3 million in total contributions. (Punchbowl News)

• NEW AD. Virginians for Fair Elections went up on the air with a new ad supporting the redistricting referendum. The spot, titled “Tough,” features a handful of veterans who are “choosing to fight back” against GOP redistricting by voting “yes” in the special election. (release)

• MEANWHILE. House Speaker Mike Johnson will attend a fundraiser on April 11, ten days before election day, in Great Falls, Virginia to oppose Democrats’ efforts. (National Today) Former Rep. Eric Cantor (R) and former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) will be in attendance, per the invite. (New York TImes) 

IA SEN: Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) endorsed state Rep. Josh Turek (D) in the primary. Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) have also endorsed Turek. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) endorsed state Sen. Zach Wahls (D). (Politico)

POLLING ROUNDUP: New polls in Alabama, North Carolina, and Michigan give updates on Senate and gubernatorial races.

• AL SEN. A survey from The Alabama Poll (March 24-26; 600 LVs; +/-4%) of the GOP primary found Rep. Barry Moore (R-01) at 23%, state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) at 21%, former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson (R) at 19%, and wholesale fuel executive Rodney Walker (R) at 3%. 35% were undecided. (release)
• NC SEN. A Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions poll (March 8-9; 800 RVs; +/-3.46%) conducted for the Democratic-aligned Healthier United found former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) ahead of former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, 50%-32%. Perennial candidate Shannon Bray (L) got 4% and 14% were undecided. (release)

• MI GOV. An 1892 Polling survey (March 25-26; 600 LVs; +/-4%) commissioned by 2020 presidential candidate Perry Johnson’s (R) campaign found a plurality of GOP primary voters, 42%, are undecided. Rep. John James (R-10) had 26%, Johnson had 21%, former state Attorney General Mike Cox (R) had 4%, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R) had 4%. Two other candidates each had 1%. Johnson has said if he reaches 20% in polls, he expects to stay in the race and receive Trump’s endorsement. (release)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado, Senate correspondent Nicholas Anastácio, and National Journal columnist Natalie Jackson unpack the changes in the polling industry.

Hair of the Dog

“Barbie's dream fest? More like a nightmare warehouse, event attendees say” (NBC News)

Our Call

The government-shutdown blame game between House and Senate Republicans leaves out one key scapegoat: Democrats. Republicans’ inter-chamber argument over the shutdown revolves around how much they should give into Democrats’ demands. The clash over strategy between Senate GOP leadership and hardline House Republicans takes heat away from Democrats, who can continue to hammer on their call to reform ICE. As Republicans discuss increasingly drastic methods to end the shutdown, such as eschewing the filibuster, moderate Republicans like Senate Majority Leader John Thune lose ground without Democrats lifting a finger. — Erika Filter

California’s gubernatorial race is already previewing tactics Republicans may use to stem their losses in what is shaping up to be a difficult cycle. The Trump administration ordered the FBI to unearth a decade-old investigation into Rep. Eric Swalwell, signaling a willingness to weaponize stale allegations to attack the credibility of a Democratic frontrunner. In January, the Department of Justice launched an investigation into Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) for allegedly obstructing federal law enforcement officers, a move that Walz said weaponized the justice system and threatened political opponents. With little federal power over elections, Trump’s Justice Department is instead discrediting opponents—a playbook they could use in other states to influence the midterms in their favor. — Abby Turner

Fresh Brewed Buzz

“Army reviewing after helicopters hovered alongside Kid Rock’s swimming pool as he saluted” (AP)

“After the White House complained about an unflattering photo of” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, it was scrubbed from AFP and Getty’s systems.” (Status)

President Trump shared a rendering of his proposed presidential library. The renderings show a skyscraper dominating the Miami skyline adorned with Trump’s name, and inside visitors “are pictured riding a golden escalator, much like the one Trump glided down when he announced his first presidential campaign. And inside a massive auditorium, a towering golden statue of the president with his first raised is seen on stage.” (CNN)

“How the Internet Became the ‘Cookbook’ of the Drug Trade” (New York Times)

“The Israeli military suspended a battalion of reservist soldiers on Monday, days after it detained a CNN crew in the West Bank village of Tayasir.” (Washington Post)

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is filming a YouTube series with the producers of The Real World: Boston as his family “hit the road across America, with cameras capturing stops at theme parks, national landmarks, and small-town destinations.” (TMZ)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) “signed a controversial bill to rename Palm Beach International Airport after” Trump. (WPTV)

Rooster's Crow

The House and the Senate are out.

President Trump will participate in policy meetings at 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. At 7:30 p.m., he and first lady Melania Trump will attend the opening night of Chicago at the Kennedy Center. 

Swizzle Challenge

Three men served as president in 1841 and again in 1881.

Tom Davis won yesterday’s challenge. Here’s his question: Which state has gone the longest time without electing a Democratic governor? 

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“I’m not his staffer. I’m not involved in this in any professional sense. … There’s no expectation that we are going to see eye to eye on everything.” — Second lady Usha Vance on her relationship with her husband’s politics (NBC News)

...Chaser

“Whatever you're selling, I ain't buying yo. Well, my name is Skylar White yo. My husband is Walter White yo. He told me everything.” — Skyler White (Breaking Bad)

Kirk A. Bado, Hotline Editor

Associate Editor: Hannah Thacker

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