Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. Today we’re tracking:

• WHO Democrats tapped to give their State of the Union rebuttal
• WHY a judge blocked Virginia Democrats’ gerrymander
• WHICH UFO files President Trump pledged to release

Let’s get after it.

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What's News

REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP: In Virginia, a Tazewell Circuit Court judge “effectively blocked Democrats’ planned April voter referendum to redraw the state’s congressional maps” Thursday. The lawsuit, brought by the RNC, NRCC, and two members of Congress, argued “ballot referendum’s timing and phrasing are illegal.” The temporary restraining order is in effect until March 18, with early voting set to start March 6. Democrats said they will appeal the ruling. 

• SOUNDS FAMILIAR. This is the second ruling by a Tazewell Circuit Court judge ruling the referendum invalid because of procedural errors. Democrats also appealed the ruling to the Virginia Supreme Court, which allowed the referendum to proceed while it considers the case. (AP)
• ANOTHER ONE. Reps. Rob Wittman (R-01) and John McGuire (R-05) filed a new lawsuit in Richmond Circuit Court arguing that the ballot language “is not neutral and violates state law requiring ballot questions to be accurate and impartial.” The Tazewell court also ruled Thursday the ballot language was misleading and partial. The ballot question asks voters to “restore fairness” to elections by granting the General Assembly temporary authority to draw the congressional map. (Virginia Mercury)
• NEW YORK. A mid-level state appeals court unanimously “sided with Democrats’” claim that Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ (R-11) Staten Island seat violated the state constitution. “The ruling likely settles the matter for good in New York’s judicial system,” since judges ruled unanimously and they are unlikely to get an appeal in New York’s high court. Republicans, however, previously appealed the ruling to the Supreme Court, where it awaits fate. The case calls upon the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission to convene and retool the district, likely giving Democrats another pickup opportunity. (Politico New York)

2028 WATCH: During a discussion at the Center for American Progress, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) called ICE an “out of control law enforcement organization.” He said every ICE officer should be retrained. He later stressed the importance of border security, saying, “Border security is national security.” (Hotline reporting)

• NO BATTLE TOO SMALL. Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) will speak at the Idaho Democratic Party’s Frank & Bethine Church Gala on March 7. (release)

POLLING ROUNDUP: In Georgia, a Quantus Insights poll (Feb. 17-18; 1,337 LVs; +/-3.2%) of the GOP primary for governor found health care executive Rick Jackson (R) leading with 32.6%, followed by Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) with 16.9%, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) with 8.2%, and state Attorney General Chris Carr (R) with 4.6%. Less than 1% said they’d vote for a different candidate, and 37.4% were undecided. 

• GA SEN. A poll of the Senate GOP primary found Rep. Mike Collins (R-10) at 36%, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-01) at 11%, and former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley (R) at 9%. 45% were undecided. (release)

• AZ GOV. A poll from the Center for Excellence in Polling (Jan. 22-24; 519 LVs; +/-4.3%) found Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) leading Rep. Andy Biggs (R-05), 50%-41%, with 5% unsure. She also led Rep. David Schweikert (R-01), 51%-38%, with 6% unsure. In the GOP primary, Biggs leads with 28%, followed by Schweikert with 12%. 2022 candidate Karrin Taylor Robson (R) got 19%, but dropped out before the poll was released. 33% were unsure. (release)

• IA SEN. An NRSC poll (Feb. 16-18; 1,923 LVs; +/-2.53%) of the Democratic primary found state Sen. Zach Wahls (D) ahead of state Rep. Josh Turek (D), 30%-23%, with 32% undecided. 5% backed another candidate. (Politico)

• MA SEN. A Cygnal survey (Jan. 22-25; 800 LVs; +/-3.5%) sponsored by 2024 nominee John Deaton (R) found Sen. Ed Markey (D) ahead of him, 54%-30%, with 16% undecided. (Politico)

• MI GOV. An internal poll (Feb. 9-16; 800 LVs; +/-3.5%) for Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) conducted by Impact Research found her statistically tied with Rep. John James (R-10), 39%-36%. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I) got 20% and 5% were undecided. (release)

• AK-AL. A Public Policy Poll (Feb. 11-12; 600 LVs; +/-4%) conducted for fisherman Bill Hill (I) tested two hypothetical head-to-head matchups against Rep. Nick Begich (R). In a Hill-Begich race, Begich led Hill within the margin of error, 41%-37%, with 22% undecided. Begich led pastor Matt Schultz (D), 46%-39%, with 15% undecided. (release)

WHITE HOUSE: At his speech in Rome, Georgia, President Trump “was supposed to focus on the economy and jobs but spent much of the time on wild tangents: railing against the Supreme Court, making false claims of voter fraud and calling himself a ‘schmuck’ for donating his presidential salary.” Trump said: “What word have you not heard over the last two weeks? Affordability. Because I’ve won. I’ve won affordability.” (New York Times)

DEMOCRATS: Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) will deliver the rebuttal to the State of the Union address on Tuesday. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) will deliver the Spanish-language rebuttal. (AP) Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (D) and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D) will deliver their own informal rebuttals at the “State of the Swamp” at the National Press Club. (Politico)

SD SEN: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s “tenuous standing with the Trump White House is creating concern in her home state of South Dakota that she might leave the Cabinet to challenge” Sen. Mike Rounds (R) in the GOP primary. Rounds’ allies are preparing for that scenario, but a Noem adviser said she has no plans to leave DHS as pollsters reportedly test a Noem-Rounds matchup in the state. (The Atlantic)

IL SEN: Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) released her first TV ad of the campaign, boasting her support to abolish ICE and “hold Trump accountable for the crimes he’s committed” alongside Gov. JB Pritzker (D). The ad features several individuals, including Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D), saying “Fuck Trump, vote Juliana” to the camera, generating half a dozen bleeps on broadcast. Stratton’s campaign has booked $211,000 in ad reservations from Friday through March 2. (NBC News)

• SEPARATION. During a Thursday debate between Stratton and Reps. Robin Kelly (D-02) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-08), Kelly was the only candidate to describe Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide. She said: “It may not have started that way, but genocide was the result.” (Chicago Sun-Times)

• BOOK IT. Sen. Cory Booker (D) endorsed Kelly in the Democratic primary. (release)

REPUBLICANS: The “MAHA Moms,” health-conscious activist women who supported HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign then embraced Trump, were “stunned and infuriated” by Trump’s executive order increasing “domestic production of glyphosate—a widely used weedkiller and possible carcinogen that has been the target of thousands of lawsuits.” The conflict threatens to sever the ties between the MAHA and MAGA camps. (New York Times)

STATE OF THE STATES: The DLCC is launching a $250,000 investment today ahead of a May special election in Michigan’s Senate District 35. The seat has been vacant for over a year after Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-08) was sworn in. Democrats hold a 19-18 majority in the state Senate. If Republicans flip this seat, the chamber will be tied, requiring Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D) to cast the tie-breaking vote. (The Hill)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

Editor-in-Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook discuss Democrats' Senate battleground strategy and Republicans' panic over potentially losing the majority.

Hair of the Dog

“A Lonely Baby Monkey Wins Hearts, and Even a Few Friends” (New York Times)

Our Call

State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos’ (R) retirement after 13 years as a political powerhouse marks an end of an era for Wisconsin Republicans, who were already facing an uphill battle to keep their State Assembly majority. The state Supreme Court overturned Republican-gerrymandered maps in 2022, and in 2024, the GOP’s state assembly majority had been slashed in half. Heading into the 2026 cycle with the GOP’s 54-45 majority within striking distance and midterm headwinds less favorable to Republicans, Democrats were already bullish about their chances of flipping the chamber. Now with a leader like Vos exiting the political stage, state Democrats will undoubtedly like their new odds. — Abby Turner

The progressive lane in Illinois’ Senate Democratic primary still isn’t clear. At several debates and forums, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has sought to distance herself from her congressional opponents—Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi—by taking bolder policy stances like abolishing ICE and raising the federal minimum wage to $25 an hour. Yet progressives stalwarts and “Fight Club” senators are split between Kelly and Stratton, benefitting Krishnamoorthi and his omnipresence on Illinois’ airwaves. The race could be characterized as a Krishnamoorthi-Stratton matchup, but the onus is on the lieutenant governor to grow her support over the next few weeks. — Nicholas Anastácio

Fresh Brewed Buzz

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) will headline the Gridiron Club Dinner on March 21. (Politico)

“D.C. protesters say they were attacked by guards of Azerbaijani president” (Washington Post)

“President Trump is directing his administration to begin releasing government documents related to aliens and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), he announced Thursday evening. Trump's comments on Truth Social came hours after he accused former President Obama of disclosing classified information for saying aliens are ‘real’ in a podcast last week.” (Axios)

“How The Times Made Judgment Calls on Covering the Arrest” (New York Times)

“A banner featuring a photo of” Trump “and the words ‘Make America Safe Again’ was hung from the Justice Department’s headquarters in Washington on Thursday in one of the most public signs of the president’s influence over a department that once brought criminal charges against him.” (NBC News)

“Vietnam Veterans Sue Trump Over D.C. Arch Project They Say Would Block Cemetery Views” (NOTUS)

“The husband of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer has been barred from the department’s headquarters after at least two female staff members told officials that he had sexually assaulted them.” (New York Times)

Rooster's Crow

The House is in at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. The Senate is out.

President Trump will have a working breakfast with governors at 9:30 a.m. At 10:30 a.m., he will have a private meeting. 

Swizzle Challenge

The Republican Party's first presidential candidate was California Sen. John Frémont.

Aaron Schulow won yesterday’s challenge. Here’s his challenge: Who was the first African American to be elected to the House and when?

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“Trump Says He Will Release Files on Aliens and U.F.O.s” (New York Times)

...Chaser

“Why the big secret? People are smart. They can handle it.” — Edwards

“A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow.” — Kay (Men in Black)

Kirk A. Bado, Wake-Up Call! Editor

Associate Editor: Hannah Thacker

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