Spotlight: One Week Outlook

With a week to go until Election Day, most major election forecasters are singing from the same hymn sheet when it comes to the House. Democrats remain strongly favored, and the only remaining point of contention is how big their majority will be when the dust settles.

But the handicappers diverge when it comes to gauging the Senate.

Among the major forecasters, there’s a nearly 20-point gap between the most bullish prediction, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, and the more bearish prediction from DDHQ.

House Outlook

Silver Bulletin: Democrats have a 95% chance of taking the House.

The Economist: Democrats have a 19 in 20 chance of taking the House.

VoteHub: Democrats have an 88% chance of taking the House.

DDHQ: Democrats have a 79% chance of winning the House.

Senate Outlook

Silver Bulletin: Democrats have a 76% chance of flipping the Senate.

VoteHub: Democrats have a 60% chance of flipping the Senate with the most likely outcome a 52-48 split.

The Economist: Democrats have a 3 in 5 chance of taking the Senate.

DDHQ: Democrats have a 57% chance of flipping the Senate.

The prediction markets are right in the middle. Kalshi puts Democratic control of the House at 91% and Senate at 65%. Polymarket has similar odds.

The wide range in the Senate is a testament to Democrats’ pushing deep into Republican territory. States that haven’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932 are now on the board, and the unprecedented opportunity for a blue tsunami or a blue splash in the Senate explains the wide possibility of outcomes.

— Kirk A. Bado

kbado@nationaljournal.com

Top News

REPUBLICANS: Can I Get A…

President Trump is hitting the stump in Texas with Johnny Football.

FIRST IN HOTLINE: Dirt Off Your Shoulder

A Democratic poll found Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) leading Gov. Joe Lombardo (R).

NEW YORK 03: Empire State of Mind

The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC launched a $980,000 ad campaign to back Rep. Tom Suozzi (D).

KANSAS GOVERNOR: 99 Problems

A pro-AI PAC invested $1.5 million in support of state Senate President Ty Masterson (R).

Think you can outplay the politics pros?

Three quick games that test how well you really know the people, races and policies shaping the day’s politics

Hotline's National News

Curated by Erika Filter and Ryan Saenz

REPUBLICANS: Trump Invites Football Stars on the Trail in TX

President Trump will campaign with football stars Johnny Manziel, Colt McCoy, and Danny Amendola in campaign appearances in Lubbock and Corpus Christi, Texas. “The appearances bring some of Texas' biggest football names onto the campaign trail in a state where the sport commands an enormous following,” and they continue Trump’s pattern of incorporating football onto the campaign trail.

• PAST PLAYS. Trump attended the Texas-Tennessee game last month, “former NFL coach Jon Gruden joined Trump at an Ohio rally” earlier this month, and former NFL star Todd Gurley “accompanied the president on a stop in Georgia.” Republicans have poured millions into advertising during football games. (Axios)
• RELIANT ON WHALES. “The number of federal donors giving through WinRed, the major GOP online fundraising platform, is down, with roughly 1.5 million donors so far this cycle compared to 2.2 million at this time in 2022.” Republicans’ digital fundraising “is still centered around Trump and the official party committees.”
• HOT ON THE LEFT. Donations on ActBlue, the Democratic counterpart, have increased by about one-third since 2022.
• HERE FOR THE HEADLINER. “Of the nearly 1.5 million donors who have given on WinRed this cycle, 324,000 of them—a bit over 22%—have given only to Trump’s groups through the platform but not any other candidate or committee.” (Politico)

VOTING: Appeals Court Declines to Block CA from Counting 20,000 Flagged Ballots

In a 2-1 decision, an appeals court “declined to rule on whether California elections officials can count roughly 20,000 ballots that the Justice Department alleges likely belong to noncitizen voters.”

• NEXT SHOWDOWN. The panel broadly ruled that it was too early for an appeals court to weigh in, and Trump administration and California officials will relitigate the issue today before a federal district judge.

• MOOT POINT. “Two of the three judges also wrote separate concurrences making it clear they wouldn’t support setting aside ballots at this late date. They questioned the accuracy of the federal government’s list of alleged noncitizen voters and argued that to set aside votes risks disenfranchising citizens.” (AP)

• GO NORTH. “In a letter to Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs, the Justice Department” asked Washington state to set aside ballots from 405 “people it alleges registered to vote without U.S. citizenship.”

• PAST ACTIVITY. The DOJ “said it had identified 1,500 votes cast by” the 405 people in past elections. (AP)

• THE LONG GAME. President Trump and his allies are sowing doubt in the midterm election’s legitimacy, priming his base to question the results should Republicans lose. On social media, nearly 600 high-profile accounts, podcasts, or other online media “have published more than 7,000 statements questioning the election’s integrity so far this year.”

• ON THE RISE. The Washington Post’s analysis of the over 7,000 statements found they spread “overstated claims that noncitizens are on voter rolls and that mail-in ballots enable widespread fraud,” claims that are twice as prevalent this election cycle as they were in 2024. (Washington Post)

WHITE HOUSE: DOJ Criminally Charges James Comey for Alleged 2016 Leak

“The Justice Department criminally charged” former FBI Director James Comey “over allegedly leaking a sensitive national security document” to the New York Times in October 2016, the third instance of prosecutors making accusations against Comey.

• PLANS MEASURED IN CENTURIES. The Justice Department said “the document that the two charges are outlined in … is not enforceable and that they have yet to file their official charges against Comey. The move is instead an attempt to push back the 10-year deadline on bringing charges under the Espionage Act against the former FBI director, which expired earlier this month.” (CNN)

Hotline's Senate News

Curated by Nicholas Anastácio

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Dems’ Fleeting Chance

Democrats are targeting several GOP-held seats in difficult terrain, but “it is far from certain that Democrats can pull off a single upset in any of the red states typically considered out of reach for them.” If Democrats fail to deliver wins in some of these GOP strongholds, “it could be a long time before they have another chance.” (New York Times)

POLLING ROUNDUP: Competitive Matchup Remains in Maine

A Marist University poll in Maine (Oct. 22-25; 1,449 RVs; +/-4.1%) found former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) at 53%, Sen. Susan Collins (R) at 44%, and 2% undecided. Among likely voters, Jackson got 49%, Collins got 47%, and 3% were undecided. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The disparity between the registered voter sample and the likely voter sample shouldn’t be disregarded when assessing this poll. An early October poll showed Jackson at 51% and Collins at 47% among registered voters—a notable leftward shift in the span of three weeks.

• MICHIGAN. A Glengariff Group poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 LVs; +/-4%) conducted for Detroit News and WDIV found 2018 GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) ahead of 2024 nominee Mike Rogers (R), 51.4%-45.1%. 3.6% were undecided. (Detroit News)

• SOME MORE. An Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University/YouGov poll (Oct. 2-9; 836 LVs; +/-4.4%) found El-Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 45.5%. 6.5% were undecided. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. El-Sayed’s improvement since the August Democratic primary can’t be ignored, even if he remains in a tough race against Rogers. A Glengariff Group poll released in early September found Rogers at 45.8% and El-Sayed at 44.4%.

• SOUTH CAROLINA. A Targoz Market Research poll (Oct. 16-25; 895 LVs; +/-3.21%) conducted for the South Carolina Policy Council found Sen. Darline Graham (R) at 47%, 2022 SC-01 nominee Annie Andrews (D) at 46%, and two third-party candidates at 3%. 4% were undecided. (WHNS)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Most polls of this race are internal surveys or hail from partisan pollsters. This is the first poll from outside that realm, offering a look into Graham’s weakness as a first-time general election candidate.

• TEXAS. A N+ Univision/YouGov poll (Oct. 13-21; 1,000 RVs; +/-3.8%) found state Rep. James Talarico (D) ahead of state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), 50%-45%. 5% were undecided. (Univision)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Talarico’s polling edge remains one week before Election Day. The race is competitive enough that Paxton could still secure a win, but it’s a position Republicans wanted to avoid for nearly two years.

ALASKA: DOJ Lawsuit Ruling Could Be Made Before Election Day

U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason “fast-tracked the Department of Justice’s lawsuit seeking to block prompt certification” of the Alaska Senate race if Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R) loses reelection. On Monday night, Gleason granted a motion by former Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D) campaign and the DSCC to expedite consideration of the case, setting “the stage for her to potentially rule … before Election Day.”

• TIMELINE. Gleason ordered the DOJ to respond to motions to intervene by Peltola’s campaign, the DSCC, the League of Women Voters, and Common Cause by Tuesday afternoon. If she grants the motions to intervene on Wednesday afternoon, “Gleason said the DOJ should be prepared to respond to the motion to dismiss the case by Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC by” Thursday afternoon.
• ELECTION OFFICIALS RESPOND. “Shortly after Gleason issued her order, Alaska election officials filed a motion asking the judge to dismiss the lawsuit ‘immediately, with prejudice, because the complaint has no legal basis.’ The filing was the first by state officials in the case.” (CNBC)
• BACK TO NOTHING. Former U.S. Forest Service employee Dan J. Sullivan “switched from a Republican to an undeclared party affiliation when he requested an absentee ballot for the August primary election.” Dan J. Sullivan is listed on the general election ballot as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” without a party label. (Alaska Beacon)

MAINE: Troy Jackson’s Seven-Figure Closing Pitch

Former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) launched a seven-figure ad blitz in his final pitch of the campaign. Titled “Heart,” the 30-second spot argues that “Mainers will decide the direction of this whole country,” insinuating that a vote for Sen. Susan Collins (R) is supporting the best interests of President Trump and billionaires. (MS NOW)

• THREE-TO-TWO. Collins-aligned ad spending is outpacing Jackson-aligned ad buys, $9.3 million to $6.8 million, heading into Election Day according to AdImpact. (Hotline reporting)

NORTH CAROLINA: Michael Whatley Back on Air

Former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley returned to the air over the weekend after temporarily pausing his TV ads for roughly two weeks. One 30-second ad argues “the far left would be in charge” if voters elected former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) next week. Cooper’s campaign is launching its own seven-figure ad buy, one “that’s larger than the amount of money Whatley’s campaign has on hand.” (Washington Sun)

SOUTH CAROLINA: Former Governors Endorse Annie Andrews

Former Govs. David Beasley (R) and Jim Hodges (D) issued a joint endorsement for 2022 SC-01 nominee Annie Andrews (D) as she challenges Sen. Darline Graham (R). Beasley notably lost reelection to Hodges in 1998. (release)

• WRECK IT RALPH. Republicans are voicing their dissatisfaction around Rep. Ralph Norman’s (R-05) reluctance to campaign with the senator. President Trump “is expected to hold a rally in Norman’s district Thursday.” (Politico)

Hotline's House News

Curated by Zach Blackburn

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: House GOP Will Select Leaders Two Weeks from Today

House Republicans set their leadership elections for Nov. 10. If Republicans lose their majority, as many expect, Speaker Mike Johnson could face a challenge for minority leader, perhaps from Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH 04). (Politico)

• ULTERIOR. Democratic wins in redistricted races could prove vital for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for two reasons: “to prove that Trump’s mid-decade congressional redistricting has backfired, and to create a Democratic majority that’s easier to govern.”
• UNPOPULAR. “Jeffries may face a fractious progressive base ready to challenge his leadership even before he claims the House’s top gavel. But purple-district candidates” don’t see him as a polarizing figure like Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA 11), the former speaker, once was. (Semafor)
• PUSHING IT. “House Democrats are pushing into redder and redder territory. History shows those last-minute moves don’t usually pan out, even in favorable cycles.” Since 2018, Democrats haven’t flipped any seats added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue priority “list in the September or October before Election Day, according to a Politico analysis.”
• THE RATIONALE. “The DCCC tends to add the biggest reaches later as it moves through the cycle, both to make sure its best opportunities are funded first and have enough attention and to try to create a sense of momentum and map expansion for donors and the media.” (Politico)
• WHERE’S LEADERSHIP? Johnson will visit Rep. Mike Lawler (R) in NY-17 today. (Punchbowl News) Jeffries met with Houston-area Reps. Christian Menefee (D-TX 18) and Sylvia Garcia (D-TX 29) to discuss immigration policy. (Houston Public Media)

CALIFORNIA: Gomez Vulnerable to Progressive Challenger, Poll Finds

A University of Southern California poll (Oct. 16-24; 423 LVs; +/-4.8%) found Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-34) tied with activist Angela Gonzales-Torres (D) at 34%. After pushing undecided voters, Gonzales-Torres leads 51%-45%. (Politico)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Gomez faces sexual misconduct allegations, which he denies, and he must overcome anti-incumbent sentiments that have plagued other Democrats in intra-party races. Progressive groups have put big money behind Gonzales-Torres, and the race has served as another proxy battle between tech-adjacent groups with differing views on AI regulation. The results in CA-34 won’t affect the size of a Democratic majority, but it would affect the type of Democratic majority it is.
• CA-07. Rep. Doris Matsui (D-07) is yet another mainstream Democrat fending off a progressive challenger in California, and she’s launching a seven-figure ad campaign. The 82-year-old launched a pair of ads, including one attacking her opponent, 41-year-old Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang (D), for appearing on left-wing streamer Hasan Piker’s stream.
• THE ROOM WHERE IT HAPPENS. In CA-22, Visalia Unified School District Trustee Randy Villegas (D) is launching a six-figure coordinated ad with the DCCC featuring his working-class roots. He’s also holding a virtual fundraiser with playwright Lin-Manuel Miranda and his father, Luis A. Miranda Jr. (Politico)
• VERTIGO. San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie (D) has stayed out of the race to succeed Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-11), but both candidates running to follow her are working to make voters forget that. San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan (D) sent mailers with photos of her and Lurie, as well as a description of their working relationship. And a PAC supporting state Sen. Scott Wiener (D) sent a mailer featuring Wiener and the mayor, describing them as “partners for public safety.” (San Francisco Chronicle)

FLORIDA 14: Republican Faces Scrutiny for Representing Gaetz Ally in Court

Former state Rep. Mike Beltran (R) “filed a defamation lawsuit against a woman who had been trafficked as a teen—part of his legal work for” Chris Dorworth, an associate of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) “who is being accused alongside the former congressman of participating in an alleged sex trafficking scheme.”

• RESPONSE. A Beltran spokesperson “criticized The 19th for reporting on Beltran’s work representing Dorworth and said Beltran was carrying out his ‘constitutionally mandated duty.’”
• RACE. Beltran is seeking to unseat Rep. Kathy Castor (D) in a seat redrawn to favor Republicans. (The 19th)

MICHIGAN 04: Conservative-backed ‘Progressive’ Group Spends on Green Party Nom

A conservative-backed group called the Progressive Champions PAC has spent more than $123,000 on behalf of Green Party nominee Shafina Barnett, seeking to siphon support from state Sen. Sean McCann (D) in his bid against Rep. Mike Huizenga (R). (MIRS News)

NEW JERSEY 02: Jersey Democrats Hold Substantial Lead

A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (Oct. 16-22; 807 LVs; +/-3.4%) found New Jersey Democrats leading the generic ballot test 55%-32%, finding similar Democratic leads on issues like affordability and the Trump administration. (New Jersey Globe)

• FOR CONTEXT. Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) won the governor’s race by 14 points last year, even with high GOP turnout.
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Many consider Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-07) all but lost, but a 23-point lead in the state would mean danger for Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-02). The long tail of GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli’s 14-point loss in the governor’s race last year has left party donors disengaged and voters dismayed. Now, early turnout numbers are slumping for Republicans and rising for Democrats, even compared to last year’s blowout. This could cost Van Drew his seat. Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock (D) remains a longshot, especially given Van Drew’s ability to outpace the Republican ticket, winning 58% of the vote in 2024. But there’s a chance that Sherrill devastated the Jersey GOP so badly last year that Van Drew is at risk.

NEW YORK: HMP Puts Money Into NY-03

The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC placed its first broadcast buy in NY-03, a $980,000 ad campaign to back Rep. Tom Suozzi (D). Republicans have spent millions in the district, but Democrats, confident in Suozzi’s chances, hadn’t responded in kind until now. GOP groups have pulled out of the district, though. (Politico)

• PUT THE FRIES IN THE BAG. Rep. Mike Lawler (R) donned a McDonald’s apron and worked the drive-thru, telling voters he’d given them “extra SALT,” playing on his support for state and local tax deductions. (Judge Street Journal)

Hotline's States News

Curated by Abby Turner

POLLING ROUNDUP: Aaron Ford Leads Lombardo in Democratic Internal

A Hart Research poll (Oct. 20-25; 950 LVs; +/-3.5%) conducted for A More Affordable Nevada, the DGA-backed group, found state Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) leading Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), 49%-45%. (Hotline reporting)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. This is the first publicly released poll that shows Ford leading outside the margin of error. Lombardo may not be able to outrun the worsening national environment for Republicans. The poll found his favorability underwater by 10-points after starting off in the summer with a positive net favorability.
• ALASKA. An Alaska Survey Research poll (Oct. 23-25; 1,068 LVs; +/-3.5%) found former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) leading on an initial ballot with 50.7%, followed conservative activist Bernadette Wilson (R) with 30.6%, former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson (R) with 12.1%, and former state Attorney General Treg Taylor (R) with 6.6%.
• HEAD-TO-HEAD. Since Kreiss-Tomkins cracked 50% within the margin of error, in a simulated final RCV round, Kreiss-Tomkins led Wilson, 53.4%-46.6%. (release)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. It’s very unlikely that Kreiss-Tomkins wins outright on the initial ballot. But if he does, expect some finger pointing between Alaska Republicans who couldn’t get on the same page about a ranked-choice voting strategy.
• MAINE. A Marist poll (Oct. 22-25; 1,449 RVs; +/-4.1%) found former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (D) with 51%, lawyer Bobby Charles (R) with 40%, and state Sen. Rick Bennett (I) with 7%. 2% were undecided. (release)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Marist’s poll of likely voters had Charles and Pingree each with 44% and Bennett with 6%. That poll is an outlier. Pingree has held a healthy lead over the Republican nominee, and is widely expected to win on Election Day.
• MICHIGAN. An Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University/YouGov poll (Oct. 2-9; 836 LVs; +/-4.4%) found Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) leading Rep. John James (R-10), 51.5%-39.7%, with 8.8% undecided. (release)
• PURE MICHIGAN. A Detroit News/WDIV poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 LVs; +/-4%) conducted by Glengariff Group showed Benson leading James, 51.4%-44.5%. (Detroit News)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The Michigan GOP is trying out one last Hail Mary with an ad buy that could violate state law, as the Michigan Democratic Party alleges. But even that can’t save James at this point.
• TEXAS. A N+ Univision/YouGov poll (Oct. 13-21; 1,000 RVs; +/-3.8%) found Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) statistically tied, 48%-46%. (Univision)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. In the poll of Latino voters (980 RVs; +/-3.7%), Hinojosa leads Abbott, 52%-43%. That’s not an overwhelming amount of Latino support for Hinojosa. 2022 GOV nominee Beto O’Rourke (D) hit a high water mark of 68% Latino support in the 2018 Senate race, and it still wasn’t enough.
• VERMONT. A State Navigate poll (Oct. 23-25; 1,752 LVs; +/-2.3%) found Gov. Phil Scott (R) narrowly leading economist Amanda Janoo (D), 49%-46%, with 3% undecided. (release)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Scott will likely win reelection, but he sure won’t enjoy the 52-point margin he had in 2024.

AD ROUNDUP: Somos PAC Launches Six-Figure Spanish-Language Buy in TX

Somos PAC launched a six-figure Spanish-language digital ad campaign to support Texas Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D). One spot, titled “No Te Dejes,” highlights Hinojosa’s upbringing in the Rio Grande Valley. Hinojosa launched her campaign last year using “No Te Dejes,” which can translate to knowing yourself and fighting for it. (release)

• FLORIDA. Former Rep. David Jolly (D) unveiled a seven-figure closing ad buy, asking voters “Who do you trust?” The spot opens up with Jolly sitting at a table with his family, rebuking that he supports “a hurricane tax or socialism, and I never will.” Jolly then says Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19) gives President Trump an A-rating on the economy and “calls Trump his daddy.” (release)
• GEORGIA. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms’ (D) latest ad features a rape survivor reacting to healthcare executive Rick Jackson’s (R) stance that “survivors like me should have to prove they were raped in order to get abortion care.” Tamara Stevens, featured in the ad titled “Wrong,” says “that is cruelty, plain and simple. As a woman, a mom, and a rape survivor, the thought of Rick Jackson as governor is terrifying.” (release)
• TEXAS. Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) campaign released an ad featuring Kristina Byington, a self-described life-long Democrat, whose cousin was murdered. She says the district attorney dropped the murder charges, but Abbott “wants to create a statewide prosecutor so that families like ours have someone to call when justice is denied.” (release)
• WISCONSIN. Rep. Tom Tiffany’s (R-07) is up with another ad warning voters that Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) will raise prices, including implementing tolls roads. At a recent debate, Crowley said he was open to exploring road tolling to establish a revenue source for infrastructure funding. (release)

GEORGIA: DGA Drops Another $5M for Keisha Lance Bottoms

The DGA is investing another $5 million to back former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms’ (D) bid against self-funding healthcare executive Rick Jackson (R). DGA Chair Andy Beshear made the announcement at a canvass launch Monday in Atlanta with Bottoms and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). The group has invested a total of $16 million in the Toss Up race. (WANF)

KANSAS: Pro-AI PAC Spends $1.5M to Back Ty Masterson

Building the Future, “an offshoot of the pro-AI super PAC Leading the Future,” spent more than $1.5 million to boost state Senate President Ty Masterson (R). The group said it would back candidates who support guardrails “‘while ensuring American leadership in AI and creating good-paying jobs for American workers.’” State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D), who has proposed a data center moratorium, “called Masterson a ‘stooge for Big Tech’ who wants ‘to put a data center on every corner and in every cornfield.’” (NBC News)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Masterson has vowed to balance data center construction with sensible regulation, but a $1.5 million boost from a pro-AI PAC could complicate that message. Masterson has supported data center development with local controls and protections, a stark contrast to Holscher’s call for a moratorium. As Hotline previously reported, Holscher defeated establishment pick state Sen. Ethan Corson (D) in part because he didn’t back a moratorium, and the same stance could bite Masterson. Now the outside spending adds fuel to Holscher’s fire, who has tapped into data center discontent as a main platform in her populist campaign. She can position this final week of the race as a referendum on AI and corporate interests trying to sway this must-win seat for Republicans.

MICHIGAN: Democratic Party Tells TV Stations to Poll GOP Ads

The Michigan Democratic Party “sent letters to TV stations around the state urging them to pull” ads supporting Rep. John James (R-10) from the state GOP. The Democratic party “allege that MIGOP skirted Michigan Campaign Finance Act limits when it made a $1.8 million in-kind contribution to James’ campaign for advertising production and placement.” Michigan state parties can’t contribute more than $750,000 to gubernatorial campaigns. (MLive)

NEW YORK: Hochul Eyes a Third Term

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) “intends to seek a full third term as governor in 2030” should she win reelection next week. Her predecessor, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), “resigned before completing his third term.” (Jonathan Martin, Politico)

PENNSYLVANIA: Stacy Garrity Gets 11th-Hour Bump from Skills Gaming Industry

State Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) “raised more money in the past five weeks than she did during the rest of her campaign for governor, much of it tied to the skill games industry.” Of the $5.4 million she raised between Sept. 15-Oct. 19, $4.5 million was linked to skill games, which the state Supreme Court ruled “are legally slot machines and can only operate in casinos and some truck stops.”

• STILL NOT ENOUGH. Garrity received “$2 million from the Pennsylvania Amusement and Music Machine Association, which represents ‘the operators and businesses that power coin-operated entertainment across the state.’” She received another two million from a Pittsburgh-based skill games designer. Despite the late cash dump, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) outraised her during the period with $8.4 million. (Spotlight PA)

TEXAS: Abbott Raises $26M in Latest Month

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) raised $26 million between Sept. 25-Oct. 24. He spent $35.4 million and has $8.6 million on hand. State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) hauled in $17.5 million, spent $19.1 million, and has $990,000 in the bank.

• THE WORLD SEEMED TO BURN. Abbott has spent $176.7 million since the start of the year as he faces his toughest reelection bid. (Texas Ethics Commission/Texas Ethics Commission)
• WAIT FOR IT. Before Abbott changed his tune on data centers, his top staff last year “held a closed-door meeting with representatives of the state’s largest tech and transmission companies.” In a meeting with representatives of Google, OpenAI, Meta, Amazon Web Services, and Nvidia, “the message from Abbott’s office was clear: We want data centers to come to Texas, and we want to work with the industry to remove roadblocks to make that happen.”
• CHAT, EXPAND THE GRID. After the meeting, “the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the state Public Utility Commission worked to write new rules and develop the new process to bring large power users—almost all of which are data centers—onto the state’s main power grid.”
• BACK IT UP. But Abbott reversed course this summer amid growing frustration over data centers, and a pressure campaign from Hinojosa. (Politico)

WISCONSIN: State Parties Are GOV Nominees’ Biggest Backers

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) raised $15.5 million between Sept. 24-Oct. 19, including $9.9 million from the state party. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-07) raised $10.1 million during that time period, $9 million of which came from the state GOP. Tiffany narrowly leads with cash on hand, $4.8 million to Crowley’s $4.1 million. (WisPolitics)

WYOMING: State GOP Won’t Back Party Nominee for GOV

State GOP Chair Bryan Miller has refused to endorse state Sen. Eric Barlow (R) or Constitution Party nominee Rebecca Bextel (I) for governor. Miller said “the party didn’t endorse Barlow because the state senator who won the GOP nomination didn’t participate in the party’s vetting process during the primary election cycle,” but won’t back Bextel for governor because she is not a Republican. Bextel appeared on former Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s show on Saturday and “accused state Republican Party leadership of being ineffective.” (Cowboy State Daily)

Overlooked: Running Into Fall

Written by Ryan Saenz

With the arrival of fall comes the arrival of marathon season. Runners across the world are taking to the start line in numerous cities to tackle a 26.2 mile—or 42.195 kilometer—course. Of the eight current Abbott World Marathon Majors, the world’s largest and most renowned marathons, the Berlin, Chicago and New York City marathons all take place within a roughly monthlong stretch. Beyond the World Majors are hundreds of other races both in the U.S. and abroad that take place as the leaves change colors. In the nation’s capital this past weekend nearly 30,000 runners took part in the Marine Corps Marathon (including your Overlooked author). Multiple politicians have had their try at completing a marathon, including soon-to-be Texas Gov. George W. Bush (R) in the 1993 Houston Marathon, soon-to-be Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in the 2005 Anchorage Marathon and even then-Vice President Al Gore (D) in the 1997 Marine Corps Marathon. With the summer firmly in the rearview mirror, chances are a marathon will be coming to a city near you.

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