Serving Maine Up on a Golden Platner

Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. Today we’re tracking:

HOW much longer oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) can sustain his flailing Maine Senate campaign
WHICH Senate race tops our list of states most likely to flip
WHERE is Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Let’s get after it.

What's News

ME SEN: The Democratic Party is abandoning oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) after a woman he previously dated accused him of sexually assaulting her in late 2021. Platner denied the allegations, but party leaders and several of his fervent supporters aren’t standing behind him following his latest scandal. (Politico)

PULLING RESOURCES. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand called on Platner to “immediately withdraw as the Democratic nominee for Senate” in a joint statement, adding the DSCC “will not invest in the Maine Senate race if Platner remains on the ballot.” (release) Senate Majority PAC spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement that the Democratic-aligned super PAC “is redirecting resources away from the Maine Senate race in light of the latest allegations against Graham Platner.” (release)
PLATNER’S RESPONSE. Platner said in a roughly two-minute video that “any accusation of non-consensual behavior is categorically false,” but added that “we are taking time to reflect on our best path forward.” (X)
DROPOUT TIMELINE. “In a private call with his campaign staff on Monday evening, … Platner did not announce plans to withdraw but implied such a decision would be coming.” If Platner chooses to withdraw from the race by July 13, the Maine Democratic can choose a replacement nominee by July 27. (New York Times)
WHO COULD REPLACE. Platner’s replacement could be one of the Democrats that lost in the gubernatorial primary, including state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), former state CDC Director Nirav Shah (D), and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D)—who lost to Sen. Susan Collins (R) in 2014. Other potential replacements include former congressional staffer Jordan Wood (D), who previously ran for the Senate before losing in the ME-02 primary, and brewer Dan Kleban (D), a previous Senate candidate. Gov. Janet Mills (D), Rep. Jared Golden (D-02), and state Rep. Joe Baldacci (D), who also lost in the ME-02 primary, aren’t expected to pursue the seat or be selected by the state party. (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter)

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Hotline updated its rankings of the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip this fall. North Carolina remains the most flippable seat this cycle as Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska climbed the list to round out the top four. Maine fell to the fifth spot, reflecting Platner’s flailing campaign and Democrats’ writing off the race if he stays on the ballot. Georgia and New Hampshire also fell down the list as Democratic pickup opportunities slowly become more flippable than GOP targets. Iowa, Texas, and Minnesota remain at the bottom of Hotline’s rankings. (Hotline reporting)

FIRST IN HOTLINE: An internal Democratic poll (June 22-25; 400 LVs) conducted by IMPACT Research found Rep. Shomari Figures (D-AL 02) in a statistical tie with state Rep. Rhett Marques (R), 44%-45%, in a district that Republicans redrew to put Figures out of a job. Figures is on the DCCC’s Frontline list, and the poll found that Marques is especially undefined, with only 31% name ID.

DCCC CHAIR SUZAN DELBENE SAYS: “Shomari is the fighter that the people of Alabama need in Congress, and his seat is critical to Democrats winning back a majority. This poll shows that Alabamans are poised to reject Republicans' cynical politics and re-elect Shomari because he’s focused on solving America’s affordability crisis and creating opportunities for all families to thrive.” (release)

2028 WATCH: Former White House adviser Rahm Emanuel “plans to use a speech in Tel Aviv on Wednesday to warn that America’s relationship with Israel is ‘not sustainable’ unless the Israeli government sharply changes course.” According to a draft of his speech, he plans to criticize “all parties involved in the decades-long conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbors—warning that Israel has become a ‘pariah’ under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling out ‘the corruption of the Palestinian leadership’ and challenging the “unconditional support” the United States has offered Israel.” (Washington Post)

SENATE FUNDRAISING ROUNDUP: Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN 02) said she raised more than $2.6 million during Q2 as she faces Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) in the Aug. 11 Democratic primary. Craig said she entered July with more than $5 million on hand. (Semafor)

KANSAS. Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) said he raised nearly $3.7 million during Q2 toward his bid against Sen. Roger Marshall (R). (release)

TX SEN: Majority Leader John Thune is set to attend a July 22 fundraiser for state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) later this month after backing Sen. John Cornyn (R) ahead of the May 26 GOP runoff. Thune will be joined by NRSC Chairman Tim Scott and several Senate Republicans, including Sen. Ted Cruz (R). (Axios)

NM GOV: Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland (D) raised $1.1 million in the four-week period before the June 2 primary, leaving her with $2.3 million on hand as she enters the general election. Former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull (R) raised $349,000 during that period and had $298,000 in the bank. (Albuquerque Journal)

MA GOV: Gov. Maura Healey (D) and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll (D) raised $1.1 million in June bringing their total Q2 fundraising to $3.1 million, according to the campaign. The ticket has raised $5.4 million since the start of the year. (release)

KY SEN: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) “was hospitalized on June 14. Since then, his office has provided few updates about his condition,” spurring rampant speculation about his health. “Emergency responders the morning the Kentucky Republican was hospitalized reported performing CPR on an unconscious individual undergoing cardiac arrest at the senator’s Washington address,” but McConnell’s office has not commented on those reports. (New York Times) Even McConnell’s Senate colleagues are in the dark. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) said: “Many of us aren’t speaking about Mitch McConnell’s condition because we know nothing about his condition.” (X)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Redistricting means that the DCCC has a larger-than-usual number of Frontliners, who are exempt from paying dues because their funds go straight to their own reelection bids. But with more exemptions, “some are worried it could cause a cash crunch” for the Democratic campaign arm. (NOTUS)

DEMOCRATS: Rep. Troy Carter (D-LA 02), who will likely be the next chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, said the caucus has “always been revered as the conscience of the Congress, and we will still be the conscience of the Congress if we lose one, two, three or 10 members.” He expressed disapproval for the proposal to “carve up majority-minority districts in blue states as well as red ones” to combat Republicans’ redistricting spree. (Politico)

KS GOV: State Sen. Ethan Corson (D) dropped his second TV ad of the primary cycle, featuring term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) direct-to-camera praising Corson and saying “Look, this is a tough job. It takes strength, judgement, and backbone. Ethan Corson has all three.” The spot is part of a $1 million TV ad campaign airing in Kansas City, Topeka, and Wichita media markets. Corson faces fellow state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D) for the Democratic nod. (release)

AZ 06: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) launched a social media ad attacking Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza (D) with clips featuring her criticizing legislation to bar transgender athletes from women’s sports, backing state support of gender-affirmation procedures, and opposing new tax cuts or tax credits. (release)

WI-07: Podcast producer Michael Alfonso (R), the son-in-law of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, is trying to ride endorsements from his father-in-law and President Trump, but “Alfonso’s detractors, including prominent Republicans,” deem him too young and inexperienced. (AP)

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While DSA-backed challengers toppled several establishment Democrats in New York last month, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) emerged untouched. She has largely avoided becoming a target of the progressive movement by forming a cooperative relationship with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) and standing up to President Trump. Her fate was secured when Mamdani, who backed several of last month’s successful challengers, endorsed her for reelection over DSA-aligned Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado (D). Though progressives continue to criticize Hochul, they have instead honed in on legislative races where they see better chances at unseating incumbents, while Hochul’s role opposing Trump has squashed efforts to cast her as an establishment Democrat unwilling to fight. — Abby Turner

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