Spotlight: Testing Trump’s Limits in the Shortest Primary of 2026

The death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) set off the shortest primary of the 2026 cycle. It’s also the most challenging test of President Trump’s endorsement power yet.

Trump is staking his influence in the party on newly appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R) in tonight’s special Republican primary to replace her late brother. 

Despite his misses in GOP gubernatorial and House primaries, the president’s Senate endorsement record this cycle is spotless so far.

“She's the perfect person to carry on Lindsey's legacy,” Trump said during a Monday tele-rally for the senator. “Darlene had no intention of doing it, and I said, ‘You've got to do it. It's the best thing. You're the best person for it.’ And so she wasn't, she wasn't the one to jump in. I was the one to ask her to jump in and she agreed.”

This won’t be a cakewalk for Darline Graham. Nine other Republicans, including Reps. Ralph Norman (R-05) and Russell Fry (R-07), former Rep. Mark Sanford (R), and businessman Mark Lynch (R), are also running. With the crowded field and the incumbent’s low name recognition, it’s highly unlikely that tonight’s primary will yield a majority, prolonging the contest for two more weeks until a runoff on Aug. 25.

“You got some superstars in here and some professionals and you got Darlene who’s never been in the cafeteria,” former South Carolina Republican Party Chair Katon Dawson told Hotline. “That matters in a Republican Party. They want to know you.”

Palmetto State Republicans have dealt the president a mixed bag this cycle. A Trump-backed redistricting push to eliminate the state’s lone Black-majority congressional district failed in the state Senate in May following GOP opposition. Lindsey Graham, bolstered by Trump, avoided a runoff after defeating Lynch, 57%-29%, in the June 9 GOP primary. Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R) narrowly placed first in the GOP gubernatorial primary, but couldn’t maintain that momentum in the runoff. With Evette poised to lose, Trump split his endorsement between her and state Attorney General Alan Wilson (R). He defeated Evette, 69%-31%, in the June 23 runoff.

One South Carolina GOP strategist told Hotline that Darline Graham is expected to qualify for the likely runoff, making the second spot a battle mainly between Fry, Norman, and Sanford.

Fry, a MAGA stalwart who hails from the vote-rich Horry County, is directly targeting the new senator over her lack of political experience and her support for data center construction without local control. Meanwhile, the pro-Fry Palmetto Leadership Fund has spent $1.1 million to boost him and criticize Norman’s conservatism. Norman, who hails from York County, is relying on his high name recognition from his unsuccessful gubernatorial bid while aligning himself with the party’s fiscal conservatives. Sanford, who represented the Lowcountry in Congress and briefly ran for the open SC-01 seat this year, is focused on tackling the national debt as the pro-Sanford American Leadership Action Fund reserves $1.8 million on his behalf.

Darline Graham’s alignment with the president could help her secure first place in the primary, but a potential runoff could further call into question her conservative credentials as her GOP opponents try to brew up a second Trump endorsement rebuke in the state.

— Nicholas Anastácio

nanastacio@nationaljournal.com

Top News

VOTERS ARE VOTING: What’s This Life For

Voters are heading to the polls in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin, several delayed House primaries in Alabama, and the special election primary to replace Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

MONTANA SENATE: My Own Prison

Neither personal development coach Alani Bankhead (D) nor former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar (I) withdrew from the race before Monday’s deadline.

NORTH CAROLINA 11: With Arms Wide Open

Local GOP officials picked state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom (R) to replace embattled Rep. Chuck Edwards (R) on the ballot.

CONNECTICUT GOVERNOR: Higher

Gov. Ned Lamont (D) is facing a challenge from the left as he runs for his third term.

Hotline's National News

Curated by Erika Filter

VOTERS ARE VOTING: Contests in AL, CT, MN, SC, VT, and WI

Voters are heading to the polls in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin, several delayed House primaries in Alabama, and the special election primary to replace late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Progressives are looking to continue their hot streak and at least one incumbent Democrat faces a serious challenger.

• 7 P.M. Polls close in South Carolina and Vermont. Results can be found here for South Carolina and here for Vermont.
• 8 P.M. Polls close in Alabama and Connecticut. Results can be found here for Alabama and here for Connecticut.
• 9 P.M. Polls close in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Results can be found here for Minnesota and here for Wisconsin.

VOTING: DHS Increases Push to Deport Noncitizens Who Registered to Vote

“The Trump administration is making an intense push to identify and deport noncitizens who registered to vote, even if they did so inadvertently or never cast ballots.”

• PURSUING OLD LEADS. DHS agents are reopening closed voter fraud cases “and investigating voter registration efforts in major cities. Customs officers have detained immigrants suspected of being on the voter rolls at border checkpoints.” Some green card holders applying for citizenship who registered to vote “have been placed in deportation proceedings.”
• NEW JOB DESCRIPTION. DHS has ordered “agents who typically focus on transnational crimes like human trafficking and drug enforcement to hunt for voter fraud.” (New York Times)

WHITE HOUSE: Trump Stands By AI Despite Voter Fears

For all of voters’ emerging doubt surrounding artificial intelligence, “there has been no sign of concern at the White House, where” President Trump “has generally maintained a much more sanguine view about the coming digital revolution.”

• DON’T YOU WORRY ‘BOUT A THING. He “and his top aides have dismissed the suggestion that widespread automation could carry real negative consequences for families, businesses and the broader U.S. economy.” (New York Times)
• VULNERABLE. Will Scharf, who Trump announced would become White House counsel next month, “will be both the legal point man” as Democrats prepare investigations. His role as chair of the National Capital Planning Commission, which oversees Trump’s ballroom and arch projects, could pique Democrats' interest. (Semafor)
• HUSH HUSH. The Justice Department Office of Legal Counsel released a memo saying “the president can assert executive privilege over communications with ‘private advisers … so long as they relate to official presidential decisionmaking, involve or reflect communications with the President or his direct advisers, and are confidential.’” The memo would allow any president, including Trump, to “wall off a broad swath of communication from congressional scrutiny.” (Punchbowl News)
• VIEWS ARE DOWN. Traffic to Truth Social, Trump’s social media platform, “has fallen sharply this summer.” (New York Times)

Hotline's Senate News

Curated by Nicholas Anastácio

MINNESOTA: A Close Dem Primary to Be Decided

The not-so “Minnesota Nice” Democratic primary to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D) is coming to a close. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), carrying the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party’s endorsement, and Rep. Angie Craig (D-02) are locked in a classic progressive-versus-moderate showdown, highlighting the two’s diverging records on immigration amid Operation Metro Surge.

• GOP PRIMARY. The NRSC-backed former sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R) is attempting to hold off several opponents, including 2024 nominee Royce White (R), 2022 MN-03 nominee Tom Weiler (R), and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze (R)—who won the Minnesota GOP’s endorsement. Despite Democrats’ higher likelihood in holding the open seat, Tafoya is hoping to direct focus to the state social services fraud scandal during the campaign. (Hotline reporting)

SOUTH CAROLINA: Graham’s First Election

Sen. Darline Graham (R) is attempting to fend off several challengers in the special Republican primary to replace her late brother on the GOP ticket. Graham, backed by President Trump, faces several notable opponents, including Reps. Ralph Norman (R-05) and Russell Fry (R-07), former Rep. Mark Sanford (R), and businessman Mark Lynch (R). Graham is expected to qualify for a likely Aug. 25 runoff, putting pressure on her foes to secure the second spot. Whoever secures the GOP nomination this month will face 2022 SC-01 nominee Annie Andrews (D) in November. (Hotline reporting)

• A FINAL POLL. A Trafalgar Group survey (Aug. 8-10; 1,027 LVs; +/-2.9%) found Graham at 26.4%, Norman at 19.5%, Fry at 18.4%, Sanford at 18.3%, Lynch at 7.5%, and five other candidates collectively at 4.5%. 5.4% were undecided. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. With a runoff likely, the most important number to pay attention to tonight is Graham’s vote share. In the GOP gubernatorial primary, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R) placed first with 28.9%, but only garnered 31.4% in the runoff against state Attorney General Alan Wilson (R) weeks later.

FLORIDA: Mark Kelly Endorses Alexander Vindman

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) endorsed retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman (D) in the Democratic primary to take on Sen. Ashley Moody (R) in November’s special election. Kelly joins Sens. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) and Jack Reed (D-RI)—all combat veterans—in backing Vindman over state Rep. Angie Nixon (D) ahead of the Aug. 18 primary. (Florida Politics)

IOWA: Josh Turek’s First General Election TV Ad

State Rep. Josh Turek (D) launched his first general election TV ad, highlighting his Paralympic background and his willingness to work with both parties in Washington. Titled “USA,” the 30-second spot features Turek declaring he’ll “work with anyone to fight the corruption, clean up Washington, and make them work for us again.” The statewide ad will run on television, streaming, and digital platforms. (release)

MICHIGAN: State Dem Party Black Caucus Endorses Abdul El-Sayed

The Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus endorsed 2018 GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) against 2024 nominee Mike Rogers (R). The MDPBC, which backed Rep. Haley Stevens (D-11) in last week’s Democratic primary, said in a statement that “Democrats must unite rather than fight yesterday’s primary battles while opponents organize for November.” (release)

• OLD SOCIAL MEDIA BRIGADE. El-Sayed removed several videos, “at least 100 of which appear to have been made private,” from his YouTube channel as he runs for office. One of the since-removed videos gives four reasons “why fireworks suck” while another video proposes replacing the Second Amendment with a constitutional right to healthcare. (CNN)

• CITATION, PLEASE. The GOP-aligned SLF is running a “mid five-figure advertising campaign across northern Michigan” to boost El-Sayed’s 2018 comment that he “hate[s] Mackinac so much,” referring to Mackinac Island. The comments were featured in a 2020 documentary about the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary. (Politico)

MONTANA: Alani Bankhead, Seth Bodnar Remain in Race Past Withdrawal Deadline

Personal development coach Alani Bankhead (D) and former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar (I) didn’t withdraw from the Senate race before Monday’s deadline, increasing the likelihood of former U.S. Attorney for Montana Kurt Alme (R) winning in November. Richie Melby, the communications director for the Montana secretary of state’s office, confirmed to Hotline in a statement that the office “did not receive a withdrawal from a candidate for Montana’s U.S. Senate race” prior to the withdrawal deadline. (Hotline reporting)

• AWKWARD. As Monday’s deadline passed, the Montana Democratic Party mistakenly released a statement on X that said the party “respects Alani Bankhead’s decision to suspend her campaign for the U.S. Senate.” The party quickly deleted the post and released another statement that maintained Democrats’ support for Bankhead. (Semafor)

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Chris Pappas’ Latest Ad Goes Back to 1996

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-01) released TV and digital ads that go back in time to 1996, when former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) was first elected to Congress. The 30-second TV spot excoriates Sununu’s past congressional record, arguing he “gave huge tax breaks to pharma companies and sided with the insurance industry. And then he went to work for them and made $35 million.” Sununu still faces a GOP primary against former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) on Sept. 8. (release)

Hotline's House News

Curated by Zach Blackburn

ALABAMA: Primary Redo in Four Congressional Districts

Voters in AL-01, AL-02, AL-06, and AL-07 will select new nominees after Alabama legislators redrew the congressional map this year. Rep. Shomari Figures (D-02), redrawn in a new district that favors Republicans, is seeking a second term, and several Republicans, including Trump-endorsed state Rep. Rhett Marques (R) and Army veteran Joshua McKee (R), are seeking the nomination to face him in November. (AP)

CONNECTICUT 01: Larson Faces Make-or-Break Challenge

The 78-year-old Rep. John Larson (D) faces a generational challenge from 47-year-old former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin (D), who has outspent Larson and wields the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D) has the backing of some progressive groups, but Bronin is expected to pose a threat to Larson’s longtime incumbency. (Hotline reporting)

MINNESOTA 02: State Legislative Dems Look to Replace Craig

With Rep. Angie Craig (D) running for Senate, state Reps. Matt Little (D) and Kaela Berg (D) and state Sen. Matt Klein (D) are duking it out to succeed her. Little has the backing of progressive groups, while EMILYs List has spent on behalf of Berg. Klein is running with less establishment backing, but he’s raised more than either of his opponents. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the district Likely Democrat, and state Sen. Eric Pratt (R) is the presumptive GOP nominee. (Hotline reporting)

WISCONSIN: Cooke Tries to Hold on For Second Shot at Van Orden

2024 nominee Rebecca Cooke (D) is seeking renomination to challenge Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-03), to whom she lost by less than 3 points in 2024. Eau Claire City Councilor Emily Berge (D) is running a progressive campaign against Cooke, but she’s faltered in fundraising and polling.

• WI-07. Rep. Tom Tiffany’s (R) gubernatorial run opened up a safe GOP seat that’s attracted a collection of interesting candidates, including podcast producer Michael Alfonso (R), the son-in-law of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. Alfonso has President Trump’s backing, and he must defeat a field that includes Marine Corps veteran Kevin Hermening (R), who was one of the Americans held captive by Iran for more than a year starting in 1979; dog musher Niina Baum (R); and 2020 WI-03 candidate Jessi Ebben (R), an Ashley Furniture executive. (Hotline reporting)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: DCCC Adds Poindexter, Hines to Red to Blue

The DCCC added two Democratic nominees to its Red to Blue list: Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter (D), who is challenging Rep. Max Miller (R-OH 07), and former special-victims prosecutor Christina Hines (D), who is competing with Army veteran Mike Bouchard Jr. (R) to succeed Rep. John James (R-MI 10). Physical abuse allegations against Miller have put the red-leaning OH-10 squarely into play, as several polls show the congressman trailing Poindexter. (release)

• MORE ENDORSEMENTS. Advocacy group Defend the Vote will endorse a slew of Democratic House candidates on Tuesday: state Sen. Mike McGuire of CA-01, former state Sen. Richard Pan of CA-06, Visalia Unified School District Trustee Randy Villegas of CA-22, state Rep. Manny Rutinel of CO-08, former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton of FL-07, state Rep. Jasmine Clark of GA-13, former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo of KY-06, state Senate President Pro Tem Jeremy Moss of MI-11, retired firefighter Bob Brooks of PA-07, and Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder of TN-05. (Hotline reporting)

CALIFORNIA 22: Villegas Launches Ad Touting Blue Collar

Visalia Unified School District Trustee Randy Villegas (D), the Democrat challenging Rep. David Valadao (R), is launching a new TV ad “filmed in his family’s autoshop, another spot underscoring the political science professor’s blue-collar roots.” The “ad is set to run in the district’s two major media markets, Bakersfield and Fresno,” with unspecified spending behind it. (Politico)

MICHIGAN 07: Jeffries Tried to Broker Peace Among MI-07 Moderates

Activist William Lawrence (D) secured the nomination to challenge Rep. Tom Barrett (R) last month to the chagrin of establishment Democrats who had hoped either former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam (D) or former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink (D) would advance.

• THE MESSAGE. “At the DCCC’s behest, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called a key backer of” Maasdam and Brink. “Jeffries’ message: if neither would get out, would they at least stop attacking each other?”
• THE JOKE. Neither side stopped the attacks, and Lawrence, who some Democrats worry could underperform, nabbed the nomination. (Punchbowl News)

NORTH CAROLINA 11: GOP Finds State Legislator to Fill in for Edwards

Local GOP officials picked a new nominee to replace outgoing Rep. Chuck Edwards (R): state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom (R) is now tasked with defending the seat against farmer Jamie Ager (D). Edwards announced he would drop his reelection campaign after the House Ethics Committee found it likely that he had violated congressional sexual harassment rules. (WNCN)

OHIO 07: Miller Stays in Race, Risking Reelection

The deadline for Miller to withdraw his bid for reelection officially passed on Monday, and the congressman, who faces abuse allegations from two former partners, will be on the ballot come November. (AP)

• LET IT HAPPEN. Members of President Trump’s political team “asked Ohio Republicans last week not to wage a public pressure campaign against” Miller after they determined he would not drop his bid. Such an effort “would complicate messaging, the officials argued, when those same leaders would likely later have to defend Miller’s candidacy against a Democratic challenger.” (Politico)
• RATING CHANGE. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted OH-07 from Likely Republican to Toss Up, citing the physical abuse allegations and polls that have shown Miller trailing. (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter)

Hotline's States News

Curated by Abby Turner and Sam Cormier

CONNECTICUT: Lamont Looks to Stave Off Progressive Challenger

Gov. Ned Lamont (D) is facing a challenge from the left as he runs for his third term. State Rep. Josh Elliott (D) has gained steam in recent weeks, but despite tapping the same brains behind New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s (D) campaign, he isn’t finding the same success as other progressive insurgents this cycle. State Sen. Ryan Fazio (R) is the presumptive Republican nominee. (Hotline reporting)

MINNESOTA: Republicans’ Pillow Fight to Face Amy Klobuchar

Republicans are locked in bitter infighting to face presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) after Gov. Tim Walz (D) dropped his reelection bid. President Trump backed MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell (R) while the state party endorsed 2022 candidate Kendall Qualls (R). State House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R) remains in the race despite not snagging either nod, creating a nasty quarrel while November favorite Klobuchar focuses on her general election race. (Hotline reporting)

VERMONT: Democrats To Tap Scott’s Opponent

Democratic primary voters will select a nominee to face Gov. Phil Scott (R), who is seeking his sixth term in the traditionally blue state. Child care advocate Aly Richards (D) has the backing of former Govs. Howard Dean (D) and Madeleine Kunin (D). She faces economist Amanda Janoo (D). Scott, who has gone against MAGA and remains popular, is expected to cruise to reelection in November. (Hotline reporting)

WISCONSIN: Moderate Dem Effort to Stunt Francesca Hong To Likely Fall Short

State Rep. Francesca Hong (D), a democratic socialist, is the favorite for the gubernatorial nomination after moderate Democrats failed to coalesce around an alternative. Her closest competition is Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D), who retiring Gov. Tony Evers (D) has backed, though he continues to trail her in polling. State Sen. Kelda Roys (D) and Greater Milwaukee Committee President Joel Brennan (D) are also running but have polled in the single digits.

• ALREADY SETTLED. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-07) is the presumptive nominee in this race, which is one of Republicans' best pickup opportunities on the gubernatorial map. Republicans, who see Hong as the easiest opponent to defeat, have spent millions boosting her on air ahead of the primary. (Hotline reporting)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Hong is the Democratic favorite in today's gubernatorial primary, but where she wins could offer clues about how her party views the progressive’s general election chances. The WOW counties—Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—north of Milwaukee were traditionally Republican strongholds, but Democrats have made gains here in recent cycles as the suburbs grow and tilt toward the left. Democrats in a general election don’t need to pick up these counties to win statewide, but they can’t drop the ball here. If Hong outperforms Crowley in the WOW counties, it’s a sign that Democratic voters, especially those in GOP-leaning areas, are confident in the general election chances against Tiffany. But if Crowley leads, it could signal that moderate Democrats remain skeptical of Hong, a warning sign that she could struggle to expand her coalition in these areas come November.

ARIZONA: Hobbs Officially Announces Former Republican as Lt. GOV Pick

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) officially announced her selection of former Mesa Mayor John Giles (I), a former Republican, as her choice for lieutenant governor. It’s the first cycle that gubernatorial nominees in Arizona must select a running mate after voters approved a 2022 ballot measure creating the lieutenant governor post.

• IN HIS OWN WORDS. In a video introducing the ticket, Giles said “I was a lifelong Republican before becoming an Independent because extremists shouldn’t stand in the way of getting things done.” (release)

FLORIDA: Pro-Byron Donalds PAC Ad Attacks David Jolly Over Transgender Issues

Friends of Byron Donalds, a PAC backing Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19) in the gubernatorial race, launched a seven-figure ad campaign attacking former Rep. David Jolly (D) over his past comments supporting gender-affirming care for minors and transgender athletes in youth sports. The spot will air “across broadcast television, streaming services, and digital platforms” and is “one of the largest single-campaign media investments in the final stretch of the primary contest.” (Tampa Free Press)

IOWA: Zach Lahn Ramps Up Public Events

Businessman Zach Lahn (R) “is ramping up a series of public town halls—hitting the road in an effort to introduce himself to general election voters across the state.” But Lahn, who faces state Auditor Rob Sand (D), may “need a come-from-behind strategy to clinch victory.” Sand has been in the public eye since 2018, has name recognition across the state, and has led Lahn in polling since the primary. (Des Moines Register)

MASSACHUSETTS: Mike Mongue Releases Statewide Ad On Cost Burden

Businessman Mike Minogue (R) launched a statewide TV ad ahead of the Sep. 1 primary election highlighting the cost burden on families. The 30-second spot, titled “Massachusetts is Working for Some, But Not All” discusses how “workers and families are struggling to pay their energy bills, to pay healthcare, to pay childcare, and the jobs are leaving.” As governor, Minogue says he will “bring his expertise from a business perspective, from a combat veteran perspective, and also from someone who donates time and energy and money into the community.” Minogue, the state GOP-endorsed candidate, faces former MBTA chief administrator Brian Shortsleeve (R). (release)

PENNSYLVANIA: Stacy Garrity Under Fire for Right-to-Work Endorsement

State Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) has received an endorsement from Associated Builders and Contractors, a right-to-work group that “supports mostly non-union contractors in the construction industry.” The backing has caused backlash from other industry colleagues, such as the Pennsylvania Building & Construction Trades Council and the International Union of Operating Engineers, which have backed Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). (PennLive)

Overlooked: Trump vs. Pop Stars

Written by Sam Cormier

Accounts linked to President Trump’s campaign and the White House removed social media posts featuring songs from pop superstar Taylor Swift. The posts featured her songs, “August” and “Father Figure.” Swift has not recently spoken about Trump, though she publicly endorsed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. After the endorsement, Trump posted to Truth Social in September 2024: “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!” Swift is not the first artist to call out the Trump administration for using their songs in promotional videos. In December 2025, pop star Sabrina Carpenter’s song “Juno” was used in a video montage depicting ICE raids. In response, Carpenter posted: “this video is evil and disgusting. don’t ever involve me or my music to benefit your inhumane agenda.” In another effort to promote ICE, pop star Ariana Grande’s hit from 2024 “Bye” was featured in a TikTok video promoting the agents making arrests. Grande commented on the post saying, “Please do not use my music in relation to this barbaric, inhumane, heinous nonsense.”

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