Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. Today we’re tracking:

• HOW DNC Chairman Ken Martin can dig his way out of this financial mess
• WHICH states will lead the 2028 nominating calendar
• WHY Republicans are sweating the midterms 

Let’s get after it.

What's News

HOTLINE EXCLUSIVE: An internal CA-48 poll (July 9-14; 500 LVs; +/-4.4%) for San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert (D) found her leading San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) within the margin of error, 48%-46%. Rep. Darrell Issa (R) is retiring after redistricting turned his red seat into a left-leaning district. Lake Research Partners conducted the poll. (release)

DEMOCRATS: DNC leaders have asked “vendors not to send bills until after the midterm elections,” the latest sign of their financial struggles. DNC Chair Ken Martin has reportedly “found himself increasingly isolated, gripped by the fear that he will lose his job and relying on a vanishingly small circle of people he trusts.” (New York Times)

• BET THE HOUSE. The DNC “put its physical headquarters up for collateral last year in order to obtain a $15 million line of credit to help invest in off-year elections.” The building has also been used as collateral in 2019, 2018, 2014, and other years but comes as Martin attempts to defend his management of the committee. (NOTUS)
• MARK YOUR CALENDAR. The DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee approved six states to hold their presidential nominating contests in the early window in 2028, starting with South Carolina on Jan. 22, Nevada on Feb. 1, New Hampshire on Feb. 8, New Mexico on Feb. 15, Michigan on Feb. 22, and Virginia on Feb. 29, a week before Super Tuesday. Leaders including former DNC Chair Donna Brazile and South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain argued the Palmetto State should go first to reaffirm the party’s commitment to Black voters in light of the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which threatens to erase majority-Black congressional districts. The full DNC will vote on the calendar in their meeting next month. (Hotline reporting)

ME SEN: Former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) secured the Democratic nomination to take on Sen. Susan Collins (R) on Saturday at the party’s nominating convention. Jackson said he hasn’t spoken to oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) “in weeks” but “said that there wasn’t much daylight between his policy vision and Platner’s message, which galvanized many Democrats.” Jackson enters the general election with a significant financial disadvantage to Collins. “Jackson raised $1 million in his rapidly developing Senate bid,” but Collins has more than $11 million cash on hand. (Bangor Daily News)

• AD WARS. Wasting no time getting on general election footing, Pine Tree Results PAC, an organization supporting Collins, “is putting seven figures behind its first ad hammering” Jackson for his ties to Platner. The 30-second spot features a narrator saying Jackson is “another phony we can’t trust.” (Politico)

MICHIGAN: Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) raised $5 million in the latest fundraising period running from Jan. 1 to July 20 in the gubernatorial race. She had $6.4 million in the bank. Rep. John James (R-10) raised $3.1 million during that time period and had $1.4 million in his campaign’s bank. A PAC backing James hauled in $2.5 million this year and had an additional $1.9 million in the bank. 2022 candidate Perry Johnson (R) has spent nearly $30 million of his own fortune on his campaign. (Bridge Michigan)

• MI SEN. 2018 GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) projected confidence a week ahead of the Aug. 4 primary, telling supporters in a call that a win “would give him a platform to push the progressive movement forward.” He “likened himself to David and the forces that have lined up against him to Goliath.” El-Sayed said: “I need to use the platform that I have, and frankly, AIPAC and all the other corporations are going to give me if I win this race.” (Politico) El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens (D-11) will face off in their final debate tonight at 7:30.

WHITE HOUSE: President Trump set aside “plans to sharply escalate” his military campaign against Iran over concerns “that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East.” Trump “and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises.” (New York Times)

REPUBLICANS: “Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm that their party faces a listless and demotivated base ahead of November’s midterm elections.” An analysis by Americans for Prosperity Action found that “about 1 in 5 reliable Republican base voters are at risk this November,” but reaching those “voters at the door usually moves them toward Republican candidates—or at least away from Democratic ones and toward undecided.” (Washington Post)

VOTING: An appeals court upheld a lower court’s ruling blocking key parts of Trump’s executive order restricting mail-in voting. The executive order called on DHS to compile state-by-state lists of citizens “and called on the Postal Service to verify voters based on the lists provided by the states.” (New York Times)

REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP: Former President Obama will headline a Martha’s Vineyard fundraiser next month for the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which plans to tackle redistricting in states like Maryland and New York before the 2028 elections. (Punchbowl News)

• DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN. Despite netting several seats with their redistricting push, “the 2026 House map is no more favorable to Republicans than the 2018 map, and it may actually be a little less favorable.” (Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball)

FLORIDA: Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19) has now raised more than $103 million as of July 17. His PAC raised $92 million and his campaign hauled $10 million since launching. He has $70 million on hand. (Florida Politics)

• THE VISIBLE HAND. Republicans in the Sunshine State’s competitive House primaries are anxiously awaiting Trump’s potential endorsements in their races, but the president has remained quiet thus far. (Politico)

WI GOV: The United Auto Workers Wisconsin State CAP Council has endorsed former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) for governor. (WITI)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

Hotline Editor Kirk A. Bado talks to Hotline correspondents Zach Blackburn, Nicholas Anastácio, and Abby Turner to discuss the big takeaways from the first half of the primary season.

Hair of the Dog

“Japan’s monkey sensation Punch gets thousands of birthday messages as he turns 1 on Sunday” (NBC News)

Our Call

Facing internal battles and questions over his leadership, DNC Chair Ken Martin has attempted to carve distance between himself and the powerful Rules and Bylaws Committee, which just issued its recommendation for the 2028 primary calendar. In May, during the fallout surrounding the DNC’s flawed 2024 autopsy, Martin, who does not have a vote on the RBC but can attend meetings, stayed in the background. He appeared onsite but declined to speak publicly. He counseled the committee in its two most recent meetings but stressed on Thursday that his job was “not to put my thumb on the scale” as the committee decided the nominating calendar. The party chair may face a reckoning at next month’s convening of the full DNC, but he’s worked to put the calendar beyond that scrutiny. — Erika Filter

Fresh Brewed Buzz

President Trump’s material at the WHCA Dinner redux bombed. (Politico)

“How IndyCar’s most ambitious street race became a test of politics, security and spectacle in Trump’s DC” (CNN)

“Officials who separated former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg from his young twins last month relied on a vague and unsubstantiated allegation from an accuser authorities later deemed possibly ‘mentally unstable,’ according to previously unreported police records.” (Washington Post)

“Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the power to stop pharmaceutical companies from advertising directly to consumers. He could do it almost instantaneously by revising the ’90s-era guidance giving drugmakers the opening to run 30-second TV ads on their products.” (NOTUS)

“The shrinking world of former president Joe Biden” (Washington Post)

“A Heritage Foundation employee faces a drug-possession charge after a security screening at a Senate office building turned what tested presumptively positive as cocaine and fentanyl, according to court records.” (NOTUS)

Rooster's Crow

The House is in at 9:30 a.m. in a pro forma session. The Senate is in at 3 p.m.

President Trump will depart the White House for Waterford, Michigan. At 1:55 p.m., he will view a drag race and vehicle demonstration at a General Motors facility in Milford, Michigan. The president will participate in a tour and gift ceremony at 2:10 p.m. At 2:50 p.m., he will deliver remarks, then will return to the White House.

Swizzle Challenge

The first woman to preside over the Senate was Sen. Hattie Caraway (D-AR).

No one won Friday’s challenge. Here’s our challenge: Which activist ran for Washington D.C. mayor as the “World Citizen Party” candidate in 1986?

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“The best thing Biden could do to help that effort is to get as far away from the spotlight as possible.” — Democratic strategist Sawyer Hackett (Washington Post)

...Chaser

“Can't you see we don't want you anymore!? Why can't you go back where you came from!? Leave us alone!” — George (Harry and the Hendersons)

Kirk A. Bado, Hotline Editor

Managing Editor: Hannah Thacker

Make sure to follow us