What's News
MIDTERM MADNESS: The pro-Israel group AIPAC announced “it will no longer issue endorsements or directly earmark contributions to candidates, but” it will remain involved with its affiliated super PAC, United Democracy Project.
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UNDER SCRUTINY. This cycle, AIPAC’s “endorsements and donations have become a cudgel against lawmakers from the far left and far right, particularly with the emergence of anti-Israel activist groups targeting lawmakers for receiving money tied to Israel advocacy groups.” The letter announcing the change, “sent from AIPAC leadership to its members,” states that staff will continue to recommend candidates worthy of support to members. (Jewish Insider)
OH GOV: Illinois first lady MK Pritzker (D) announced she is contributing $500,000 to back former state Health Department Director Amy Acton (D) after 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) aired an ad featuring her estranged mother. Pritzker, “who typically shies away from the political spotlight,” will contribute the maximum amount of “$16,615.67 to Acton’s campaign fund, with the remainder going to the Ohio Democratic Party.” (Chicago Tribune) As the fallout mounts over the ad, Sen. Jon Husted (R) said he would “not have run that ad.” (AP)
2028 WATCH: Vice President JD Vance’s “call for fellow Republicans to ‘stop whining’ about” Ramaswamy’s ad highlights his political strategy ahead of 2028: Don’t cave to the opposition and embrace controversy. Vance has defended allies like Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson as they have faced backlash from controversies of their own. (Axios)
VOTING: The DSCC, DCCC, DGA, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries sued President Trump “and the Justice Department, alleging that the Trump administration is unlawfully interfering with the midterms by pressuring states to remove voters from their rolls.” (Washington Post)
- SLOW YOUR ROLL. Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguin blocked DHS from carrying out stops and field interviews as part of its search for voter fraud. Martínez-Olguin “wrote that the stops appeared likely to hamper voter engagement and registration” and said there were signs the government’s “target lists” contain errors and include naturalized citizens. (New York Times)
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Democrats are making a late push to expand the House battlefield, but in some “districts — many of them big reaches for Democrats this cycle, but ones the party says are in play — the Republican candidate has entered the final weeks of the campaign with a cash advantage of well over $1 million.” (Washington Post)
- DMFBUY. “Democratic Majority for Israel’s super PAC will spend $7 million in two key races held by Black lawmakers after an infusion of cash from” former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D). The group will spend $2 million backing Rep. Shomari Figures (D-AL 02) and $5 million backing Rep. Don Davis (D-NC 01). Republicans gerrymandered both of their districts to favor the GOP, but are nonetheless putting up a strong effort to keep their seats. (Punchbowl News)
- WHERE’S LEADERSHIP? Speaker Mike Johnson stumped in WA-03 for state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R) on Wednesday. (Washington State Standard) Jeffries will tour a hospital in CA-48 today with San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert (D). (release)
NY-10: Israeli forces detained former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander (D) “as he helped Palestinian farmers harvest olives in the occupied West Bank.” (AP)
NEW JERSEY: Sen. Andy Kim (D) said he’s open to New Jersey acting to change its congressional map before the 2028 elections. Kim is the figurehead of New Jersey’s good-governance movement, and his support for redistricting would go a long way in convincing Democrats it’s necessary. (New Jersey Globe)
- NJ-09. In one of the most stunning results of 2024, Trump flipped the Paterson-based NJ-09, even as Rep. Nellie Pou (D) narrowly won the race. Two years later, Pou appears to be on a “glide path to reelection,” with neither party investing seriously in the race. The district’s large Latino population swung back toward Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) in 2025 and is expected to do so with Pou as well. (Politico)
IN THE STATES: Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund and Victory Fund and the DGA announced a $3 million push, including digital ads, “to elect gun-sense governors in Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and Wisconsin.” In “Results,” the digital ad in Nevada paints state Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) as tough on crime, and says he is “leading the fight to crack down on illegal firearms.” (release)
OK GOV: The RGA “began spending $3 million this week through an Oklahoma political action committee to support” businessman Mike Mazzei (R) as polls indicate a close race and the DGA gets involved to back state Rep. Cyndi Munson (D). Following a bitter runoff, Mazzei had just “$151,000 in campaign cash at the end of August.” (Oklahoman)
MI SEN: AIPAC is making a last-minute investment to boost 2024 nominee Mike Rogers (R), planning to give the pro-Rogers Great Lakes Conservative Fund as much as $9 million to defeat 2018 GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D). The seven-figure donation comes after Rogers reversed his skepticism on aligning himself with AIPAC, particularly after the group’s spending became a flashpoint during the Democratic primary. (New York Times)
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Senate Republicans are considering whether to spend in Mississippi to defend Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) and send more money for Kansas and South Carolina. “Democratic challengers are polling within the margin of error in more than half a dozen deep-red states, according to internal GOP polls.” (Axios)
ME SEN: WinSenate, an affiliate of the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, is launching a $7 million buy for its closing message in Maine. The buy consists of three ads that feature direct-to-camera testimonials of voters accusing Sen. Susan Collins (R) of becoming a different senator over the past six years. Two of the spots feature former Collins voters who blame the incumbent for the fall of Roe v. Wade and accuse her of corruption. (Punchbowl News)
SENATE DEBATE ROUNDUP: In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and pastor Adam Hamilton (D) shared some testy exchanges during their final debate before Election Day. Marshall routinely attempted to tie Hamilton to Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, even as the Democrat pledged he wouldn’t back Schumer as party leader. The senator also defended some of the president’s agenda points, including his Russia diesel deal and his tariff policy. When Marshall blamed high diesel prices on the war in Ukraine, Hamilton retorted “Nobody believes that.” (NBC News)
- MICHIGAN. El-Sayed and Rogers managed to end their final debate with fireworks, questioning each other’s loyalties. The Democrat routinely tied Rogers to Trump throughout the debate while the Republican questioned at one point if El-Sayed was “for America” or “for these terrorist groups overseas.” El-Sayed called Rogers “shameful,” arguing he’s committed to the Constitution. (AP)
NV-02: Retiring Rep. Mark Amodei (R) said he voted for a third-party candidate, fulfilling his vow to not vote for 2024 NV-04 candidate David Flippo (R). (Politico)
POLLING ROUNDUP: Three New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group polls conducted for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter in Iowa, Ohio, and Texas either found Democrats ahead or within the margin of error against Republicans in competitive Senate and gubernatorial races.
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IA SEN. A poll of the Iowa Senate race (Oct. 9-13; 602 LVs; +/-4%) found state Rep. Josh Turek (D) at 46%, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-02) at 44%, and Greene County Attorney Thomas Laehn (L) at 8%. 2% were undecided.
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IA GOV. State Auditor Rob Sand (D) led businessman Zach Lahn (R), 54%-43%, with 3% undecided.
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OH SEN. A poll of the Ohio Senate contest (Oct. 9-13; 959 LVs; +/-3.2%) found former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) ahead of Husted (R), 49%-43%. 7% backed other candidates and 1% were undecided.
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OH GOV. Acton led Ramaswamy, 49%-44%. 6% backed the Libertarian candidate and 1% were undecided.
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TX SEN. A poll of the Texas Senate election (Oct. 9-13; 934 LVs; +/-3.2%) found state Rep. James Talarico (D) ahead of state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), 49%-44%. 2024 nominee Ted Brown (L) got 3% and 4% were undecided.
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TX GOV. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) were statistically tied, 48%-46%. The Libertarian got 3% and another 3% were undecided. (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter)
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OHIO REPEAT. A Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw and Company Research poll (Oct. 15-19; 1,592 LVs; +/-2%) of the Ohio Senate race found Brown ahead of Husted, 52%-47%, with 2% undecided.
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TIE. Acton got 50%, Ramaswamy got 48%, and 1% were unsure. (Fox News)
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TEXAS PHOTO FINISH. A Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw and Company Research poll (Oct. 15-19; 1,398 LVs; +/-2.5%) of the Texas Senate race found Paxton and Talarico tied at 49% each. 1% were undecided.
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HOWDY. Abbott led Hinojosa, 52%-47%, with 1% undecided. (Fox News)
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TEXAS TOAST. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Texas survey (Oct. 17-19; 1,000 LVs; +/-3.1%) of the Texas Senate race found Talarico at 48%, Paxton at 46%, Brown at 1%, and 5% undecided.
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RUN IT BACK. Abbott also led Hinojosa, 49%-45%. The Libertarian got 1% and 4% were undecided. (release)
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CO-05. An internal poll (Oct. 14-18; 500 LVs; +/4.4%) for Army veteran Jessica Killin (D) found her narrowly leading Rep. Jeff Crank (R), 46%-44%. The GSG poll found 10% undecided. (release)
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