Good morning from Hotline. There are 32 days until Election Day and we’re tracking:
WHICH House races are most likely to flip
WHAT President Trump promised on the campaign trail last night
WHY the DOJ is reevaluating the Watergate scandal
Let's get after it.
What's News
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: With redistricting fights settled and October ad buys filed, Hotline ranked the 25 House races most likely to flip in November. The list reflects the headwinds Republicans face as gas prices rise and President Trump’s favorability falters. But the GOP’s aggressive mid-cycle redistricting effort means 10 of the 25 most vulnerable districts are held by Democrats. (Hotline reporting)
THE BIGGER THEY ARE. The DCCC added eight offensive targets to its Districts in Play list: KS-02, MI-01, NC-13, NJ-02, OK-05, TX-09, VA-06, and WA-05. The DCCC now lists 66 districts as targets. (release)
GO BIG. “Democrats are investing in deep-red districts that could pad a future majority” that would spare Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries headaches while seeking the speakership. With progressive skeptics and moderate holdouts, Jeffries could be forced into uncomfortable negotiations if the size of the Democratic majority gives him no wiggle room. (Politico)
THE PATH. “With 33 days to go, Democrats are torn between triaging their resources and satisfying all corners of their party's diverse but fractious racial coalition.” Black Democratic leaders have taken their concerns “about the lack of Black candidates on the DCCC's ‘Red to Blue’ list” to party leaders. (Axios)
HOUSE FUNDRAISING ROUNDUP: Army veteran Leela Gray (D) announced raising more than $1.4 million in Q3 in her bid against Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL 13), according to a release shared first with Hotline. (release)
AZ-06. Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza (D) announced raising more than $3.3 million last quarter. (Politico)
FL-14. Rep. Kathy Castor (D) announced raising $2.5 million in Q3 and entered October with $1.3 million on hand. (Punchbowl News)
IA-01. 2024 nominee Christina Bohannan (D) announced raising more than $2.7 million in Q3. (release)
KY-06. Former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo (D) announced a Q3 haul of $1.35 million.
TX-15. Musician Bobby Pulido (D) announced raising more than $3.4 million. (Politico)
REPUBLICANS: During the first rally of his midterm blitz in Durant, Oklahoma, Trump again promised $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans keep control of Congress in the midterms. He told voters to pretend he is running and said if Republicans don’t win, Democrats will impeach him. (New York Times)
WHITE HOUSE: A few days before taxpayer-funded “ads began airing, the White House Office of Management and Budget added $20 million to a Department of Homeland Security budget line designated for ‘commemorative events.’” Congress approved the spending in the OBBBA, and it was intended for “line-of-Duty death memorials, Department or agency anniversaries, and commendation ceremonies.” (Washington Post)
WE’LL DISCUSS THIS LATER. Senior White House officials, reportedly led by White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, told Attorney General Todd Blanche the Justice Department should “move slowly on any abortion-related actions ahead of the midterm elections.” Wiles reportedly “suggested that an aggressive approach on abortion would generate unwanted attention” and could alienate voters. (Washington Sun)
2028 WATCH: Vice President JD Vance said the midterm results will help inform whether he launches a 2028 bid but that he tries “not to think too much in hypotheticals.” Vance said he finds it obvious that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) “is running for president,” but Vance is focused on helping downballot Republicans. (NBC News)
VOTING: The DNC filed a lawsuit alleging that the Defense Department “secretly changed a postcard used by U.S. citizens overseas in a way that makes it harder to register to vote.” The suit alleges the department declared a state of emergency, allowing it to eliminate a checkbox on the form for voters to acknowledge they are U.S. citizens who have never lived in the country—usually children of citizens. (AP)
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will have problems after Election Day. Either leader’s fate could be determined by the midterms’ results, especially with Thune facing the ire of Trump and his supporters while Schumer faces criticism from progressives. Both are in-cycle in 2028.
TRIAGE TIME? Republicans are still projecting confidence in their nominees in Georgia and North Carolina, but both states aren’t included in the NRSC’s coordinated TV ad buys. The Trump-allied No Going Back PAC has no reservations in North Carolina and less than $90,000 in ads in Georgia. (Punchbowl News)
2006 TIME? Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), the NRSC’s chair during the 2024 cycle, said during the Grand Strategy Summit on Thursday that there “could be some similarities between the ‘06 cycle and the 2026 cycle … And we ended up losing six seats. That was a night, by the way, we lost some redder states.” (Mediaite)
IA SEN: Digital Freedom Fund PAC, the crypto super PAC funded by billionaires Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is spending roughly $418,000 on direct mail supporting Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-02) and opposing state Rep. Josh Turek (D). The PAC is spending more than $348,000 on anti-Turek mailers and more than $69,000 on pro-Hinson mail. (Politico)
PA-08: Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) is embracing the “same independent ethos” that fueled her independent run for mayor for her challenge to Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R). “Her message: She’s not like other Democrats, not beholden to them and not interested in protecting the political status quo they helped create.” (Washington Sun)
PAIGE AGAINST THE MACHINE. “Cognetti is emblematic of a larger strategic choice from Democrats this year ahead of November’s election. Across the country, Democratic candidates are aggressively distancing themselves from a Democratic Party whose image sunk to record lows after the 2024 election, intent on portraying themselves as something different than the same old Democrat.” (Washington Sun)
WI-03: Attorneys for 2024 nominee Rebecca Cooke (D) issued a cease-and-desist letter to Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) over his use of AI deepfake videos, including one depicting Cooke on the campaign trail with former President Biden and stating that she will “take advantage of as much corruption as possible and give every illegal alien free health care.”
A STRONG MESSAGE. “On Thursday, Van Orden posted another AI-generated video of a red duck in a T-shirt, saying ‘I demand DVO cease-and-desist from telling the truth about me!’” (Washington Sun)
TEXAS: New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) said “more can and will be done for” state Rep. Gina Hinojosa’s (D) gubernatorial bid "and I think the DGA will squarely be a part of that.” But she defended DGA Chair Andy Beshear (D) “from criticism over not spending enough to help unseat” Gov. Greg Abbott (R). The DGA “has helped fund staff and is discussing sending more money her way, but has yet to hit the airwaves in the state.” (Politico)
SENATE SIDE. Trump described state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) “a pain in the ass” during a Denton event, adding to a string of insults the president has made about the Republican nominee. Trump’s latest comment comes after leaked audio obtained by the New York Times showed Paxton saying last month’s GOP midterm convention “dropped our numbers.” (CNN)
SPEAK A LITTLE ESPAÑOL. Of the $188 million spent on ads by Paxton-aligned groups, just $4.2 million—or about 2%—are for Spanish-language ads. State Rep. James Talarico (D) and his allies have spent $4.6 million on Spanish-language spots. (Texas Tribune)
POLLING ROUNDUP: A pair of Fox News polls found Democrats with an edge.
AK GOV. A Cygnal poll (Sept. 24-27; 502 LVs; +/-4.37%) of the initial ballot found former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) with 44%, conservative activist Bernadette Wilson (R) with 24%, former state Attorney General Treg Taylor (R) with 9%, and former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson (R) with 8%. 15% were undecided. (release)
IA SEN. A Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw and Company Research poll (Sept. 24-28; 1,008 LVs; +/-3%) found Turek at 49% and Hinson at 47%. 1% backed another candidate and 2% were undecided.
IA GOV. State Auditor Rob Sand (D) led businessman Zach Lahn (R), 53%-44%. 1% backed another candidate and 2% were undecided. (Fox News)
KS SEN. A Global Strategy Group poll (Sept. 13-16; 800 LVs; +/-3.5%) conducted for the Democratic Attorneys General Association found pastor Adam Hamilton (D) at 47%, Sen. Roger Marshall (R) at 43%, and 2022 nominee David Graham (L) at 5%. On a two-way ballot, Hamilton got 49% and Marshall got 47%. (Politico)
ME SEN. An AARP poll (Sept. 20-22; 982 LVs; +/-3.1%) conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research found former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) at 50% and Sen. Susan Collins (R) at 47%. 1% backed another candidate and 3% were undecided.
ME GOV. The same poll found former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (D) at 52%, lawyer Bobby Charles (R) at 39%, and state Sen. Rick Bennett (I) at 6%. 3% were undecided. (release)
TX SEN. A Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw and Company Research poll (Sept. 24-28; 881 LVs; +/-3%) found Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%. 1% were undecided.
TX GOV. Abbott led Hinojosa, 52%-47%, with 1% unsure. (Fox News)
WA-03. A DHM Research poll (Sept. 17-27; 543 LVs; +/-4.2%) found state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R) at 48%, statistically tied with Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) at 47%. (Oregon Public Broadcasting)
Paging the Hotline
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National Journal Radio Bonus Episode: House-Flipping
Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado and House-campaigns correspondent Zach Blackburn discuss the latest updates in the race for the House, the impact of redistricting, and which seats are most likely to flip.
The midterms are just weeks away, but the precise contours of the House battleground remain unsettled. Look no further than NY-03, where the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC has unloaded about $6 million in ad reservations against Rep. Tom Suozzi (D). Democrats don’t expect Suozzi to be endangered in a Democratic-favorable environment, but Republicans are spending like he’s a top target. With Congressional Leadership Fund and NRCC spending included, 2024 nominee Mike LiPetri (R) has an approximate $9 million advertising advantage, according to AdImpact. The GOP money advantage, though, means Republicans can afford to take big swings. — Zach Blackburn
Iowa and Texas are reachable targets for Senate Democrats, but both appear harder to flip than other states on the map. Yet recent Fox News’ polling shows Democratic nominees in both states holding their support among registered voters despite the GOP ad blitz in the last month. The Iowa poll shows the margin between state Rep. Josh Turek and Rep. Ashley Hinson remained stable since a June poll showed the Democrat ahead. The Texas poll showed state Rep. James Talarico slightly widening the gap between him and state Attorney General Ken Paxton since a July poll. Among likely voters, both races are still within the margin of error, but it’s notable that a deluge of GOP spending isn’t making a major dent in the contests at the moment. — Nicholas Anastácio
Fresh Brewed Buzz
“For nearly two years, the Justice Department has made it a priority to investigate people who previously investigated President Trump. Now it is reaching back in history to consider whether prosecutors mistreated an earlier Republican president: Richard Nixon.” (Wall Street Journal)
Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) “ex-lover was taken into custody in a Cheesecake Factory parking lot after he got caught bringing a large knife to a Phoenix gun shop. Prosecutors claim Matthew Ammel, 39, discussed building a rifle and threatened to come after Sinema and ‘take her down.’” (Arizona Republic)
“U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro will no longer be able to bring charges against former Olympian David Hearn after a Washington, D.C., Superior Court judge dismissed the Reflecting Pool vandalism case with prejudice.” (Washington Examiner)
President Trump will receive his intelligence briefing at 11 a.m. At 12:30 p.m., he will participate in a policy meeting, then will depart the White House for Mobile, Alabama. The president will deliver remarks at 7 p.m., then will return to the White House.
Swizzle Challenge
“In God we trust” is the motto of Florida.
No one won yesterday’s challenge. Here’s our question: What was the name of President Nixon’s American Cocker Spaniel?
“I really wanted to put some time in to really think: Do you really want to do this?” — Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV) on a potential gubernatorial comeback campaign (Semafor)
...Chaser
“Leave me alone, please!” — Norman Osborne
“Hiding in the shadows. Hiding from who you truly are.” — Green Goblin mask
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