Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. Today we’re tracking:

• WHERE progressives think they can notch more primary wins
• WHO South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R) selected to replace Sen. Lindsey Graham (R)
• WHY 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) disagreed with his own pollster

Let’s get after it.

What's News

WI GOV: State Rep. Francesca Hong (D) “has a monopoly on the left flank in a crowded primary field vying for slivers of the electorate.” But the math in a crowded field “that has fueled Hong's rise in an election without ranked-choice voting or runoffs could begin working against her” as the field consolidates.

• PROGRESSIVE COUNTER. Candidates have leaned in on the electability argument in the primary to face Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-07). Two candidates who have dropped out have endorsed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D), who, alongside former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D), could become Hong’s fiercest competition. Hong isn’t worried that she’ll hit a ceiling in the primary, telling Hotline “We're actualizing the big-tent party that the Democrats want to be, and our coalition spans across ideologies.” (Hotline reporting)
• A SMALLER WAR CHEST. Rodriguez announced Monday “that she discovered her campaign has hundreds of thousands dollars less cash than she thought after campaign ads slated to run last week did not air because of unpaid invoices.” She announced on Sunday that she had fired her campaign manager “after discovering contributions had been double counted and expenses were undercounted.” Rodriguez thought she had enough for a $1 million TV ad buy the campaign announced last week, but came to learn she has just $200,000 on hand. (AP)

OH GOV: 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) declined to dispute a claim that a poll conducted by his own pollster was “fake” in a recent appearance on the Hugh Hewitt Show. Hewitt called an AARP poll in a Columbus Dispatch story that showed Ramaswamy statistically tied with former state Health Department Director Amy Acton (D) “fake.” When asked if anyone is “doing good polling on” the governor’s race, Ramaswamy didn’t object to the polling being “fake” and said “good polling has dried up.”

• THAT’S AWKWARD. The poll was conducted in part by Fabrizio Ward, one of the polling firms led by President Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio. Ramaswamy has paid Fabrizio, Lee & Associates LLC, Fabrizio’s campaign polling firm, over $738,000 since launching his gubernatorial campaign. (Hotline reporting)

VOTING: Trump will reportedly use a Thursday primetime speech “to address newly declassified intelligence reports that the White House asserts reveal plans by foreign nations to interfere in the 2020 election.” (MS NOW)

SC SEN: Gov. Henry McMaster (R) announced Monday that he’ll appoint disability advocate Darline Graham Nordone (R) to fill the seat of her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R). Nordone, who’ll be the first woman to represent South Carolina in the Senate, will serve the remaining months of Graham’s term.

• SPECIAL PRIMARY. Several Republicans are eyeing runs in Aug. 11 special primary to replace Graham on the GOP ticket. Businessman Mark Lynch (R) is currently running, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-05) is expected to make an announcement Tuesday, and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R), Reps. Nancy Mace (R-01), William Timmons (R-04), and Russell Fry (R-07), and former Rep. Mark Sanford (R) are considering bids.

• WAIT FOR THE CUE. The president is expected to weigh in ahead of the August primary. Some Palmetto State Republicans hope Trump will endorse someone who could defeat Mace and Norman, who both unsuccessfully ran for governor. (AP/Punchbowl News)

WHITE HOUSE: Trump announced “he will reimpose a naval blockade on Iranian ports and levy new charges on commercial ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz—a move that unravels the last threads of the preliminary peace deal with Iran while introducing a new and controversial strategy apparently aimed at recouping some costs incurred during the conflict.” The administration has not yet divulged “any information on how or when it will seek to collect fees from cargo ships crossing the” Strait of Hormuz. (ABC News)

REPUBLICANS: Candidates running in battleground states may avoid the GOP midterm convention in September to avoid tying themselves to the president. Just two of 28 candidates in gubernatorial, Senate, and House races provided an on record response on whether they would attend the convention, and neither explicitly said they would attend. (Politico)

WA-03: An Emerson College poll (July 8-10; 500 LVs; +/-4.4%) conducted for the Northwest Progressive Institute found state Sen. John Braun (R) statistically tied with Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D), 45%-44%. The poll found the pair leading the pack in next month’s top-two primary. (release)

NE GOV: Former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom (I) announced he is running as a nonpartisan candidate in the governor’s race against Gov. Jim Pillen (R) and former state Sen Lynne Walz (D). Lindstrom has kickstarted his effort to collect at least 4,000 signatures by Aug. 3. (Nebraska Examiner/X)

ME SEN: State Rep. Valli Geiger (D), a close ally of oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) during his campaign, passed on a bid to replace him on the Democratic ticket. Geiger instead endorsed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D) ahead of next week’s nominating convention. College professor Andrea LaFlamme (D) dropped out of the race. (WABI)

• ICE TALK. Democrats running for the nomination “seized on the Monday shooting of a man in Biddeford by a federal immigration agent, with some aiming to tie” Sen. Susan Collins (R) to federal immigration endorsement under Trump. Former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) vowed to “abolish ICE” while former state CDC Director Nirav Shah (D) said ICE “should be broken down, dismantled, and built back up in a new way that actually respects the rule of law.” (New York Times)

NV GOV: State Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) raised nearly $2.6 million in Q2, according to his campaign. The campaign hauled in $1.4 million and an affiliated super PAC raised $1.1 million. With the two combined, Ford has $3.7 million in the bank. (release)

SENATE FUNDRAISING ROUNDUP: The GOP-aligned SLF said the super PAC and its nonprofit affiliate One Nation raised $140 million during Q2. SLF said the super PAC entered July with $238 million on hand. (Axios)

• MASSACHUSETTS. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-06) appeared to outraised Sen. Ed Markey (D) during Q2. Moulton said he raised nearly $1.4 million during the period. Markey said he raised nearly $1.1 million. (Boston Globe)

• MICHIGAN. 2018 GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) said he raised more than $4.5 million during Q2. (Politico)

• MINNESOTA. Former sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R) said she raised more than $3 million during Q2, ending June with over $2.6 million on hand. (release)

• NORTH CAROLINA. Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) said he raised more than $14.8 million during Q2. (Politico)

• NEW HAMPSHIRE. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-01) raised $3.5 million during Q2, ending June with more than $5.1 million on hand. (WMUR)

HOUSE FUNDRAISING ROUNDUP: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise announced raising $9 million in Q2. (Washington Examiner)

• CO-06. Rep. Jason Crow (D) announced raising $611,000 and holding $2.7 million in cash on hand. (Punchbowl News)
• NJ-09. Rep. Nellie Pou announced raising $415,000 and had $1.8 million on hand. (New Jersey Globe)
• PA-01. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) announced raising $1.3 million with $6.4 million in cash on hand.
• PA-07. Firefighter Bob Brooks (D) announced raising $1.3 million and holding $1 million in cash on hand.
• VA-01. Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor (D) announced raising nearly $750,000 and had almost $1 million in cash on hand. (Punchbowl News)

IOWA: Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) requested a Hatch Act investigation into Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. after the cabinet official encouraged “a pair of third-party candidates in Iowa to drop out of contested House races so Republicans could keep control of Congress.” (Washington Post)

DEMOCRATS: A new memo from Voto Latino “says Latino voters face unprecedented economic stress” and cautions Democrats against focusing solely on Trump. It says “Democrats should instead message on Republican ‘failures’ and offer concrete policy changes.” (Politico)

TECH CORNER: “AI-powered platforms are training bots to sound like political candidates in text messages” with potential voters. Those bots also gather data on message recipients and what they want from their representatives. (NPR)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Trump endorsed seven GOP congressional candidates on Monday. Five have already clinched the GOP nomination in their respective districts, while state Sen. Brent Taylor (R) in TN-09 and businessman Anthony DiLorenzo (R) in NH-01 still face primaries. (The Hill)

MI SEN: 2024 nominee Mike Rogers (R) launched a $1.3 million ad campaign, his first general election buy. The 30-second spot features Rogers’ wife, Kristi Rogers, saying her husband is “a family man” with “a steely spine” as she details their connections to the middle class. (Punchbowl News)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

National Journal's Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook unpack the evolving situation in Maine's Senate race.

Hair of the Dog

“Argentina court recognizes two goldfish as sentient beings with rights” (CNN)

Our Call

Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez appeared to be emerging as the moderate consensus candidate who would give progressive state Rep. Francesca Hong a run for her money in the Aug. 11 primary. But the emerging finance scandal drowning her campaign may torpedo the electability argument moderate Democrats were making for Rodriguez. Her opponents argue Rodriguez’s mismanaged campaign has no shot against Rep. Tom Tiffany in the toss-up state. If Rodriguez loses steam as the consensus candidate, it’s anyone’s game. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee professor Mordecai Lee told Hotline before the campaign finance scandal that state Sen. Kelda Roys (D), who has polled at the bottom of the field, “is still a serious candidate.” Roys, who ran unsuccessfully in the 2018 primary, launched a $500,000 media buy in mid-June, well before Rodriguez and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and raised $1.2 million ahead of the Q2 deadline. — Abby Turner

Energy policy is hard, but as prices rise, officials have embraced proposals to rein in the much-maligned data centers popping up across the country. Look no further than the Empire State this week: Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) became the first governor to implement a moratorium on the construction of new large data centers, and Rep. Josh Riley (D-NY 19), a GOP target this fall, introduced a bill that essentially would require new data centers to offset their electricity use. Democrats have also sought to blame President Trump or the region's grid operator for rising prices, but those attacks haven’t stuck quite as cleanly. Instead, officials have to pick between embracing the tax-revenue-boosting facilities and joining the bipartisan, grassroots opposition against these information warehouses. — Zach Blackburn

Fresh Brewed Buzz

“Investigators have found evidence that Corey Lewandowski may have been involved in improperly awarding government contracts during his time as a senior aide at the Department of Homeland Security, according to people familiar with the matter.” (Wall Street Journal)

“The Woman in the Photo Wanted to Be Alone. Instead, She Went Viral.” (NOTUS)

For President Trump, “this latest leak hunt is really personal.” (CNN)

“Trump loses his ‘Senate whisperer’ after Graham’s sudden death” (Roll Call)

FairPredicts, a new watchdog organization that aims to regulate prediction markets, launched a digital and box truck ad campaign today in D.C. “to expose the bad actions being taken by Kalshi.” The ad campaign comes as Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour participates in an Axios panel. (release)

“10-foot-tall ‘Iran War Participation Trophy’ on National Mall mocks Trump” (Washington Post)

Rooster's Crow

The House is in at 10 a.m. The Senate is in at 9:30 a.m.

President Trump will greet Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at 11 a.m. At 11:15 a.m., they will have a bilateral meeting. Trump will participate in a policy meeting at 1:30 p.m. At 3:30 p.m., he will participate in a swearing-in ceremony with Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT). The president will participate in a pre-tape interview with Fox News’ Trey Yingst at 4:30 p.m. 

Swizzle Challenge

Secretaries of Housing and Urban Development Scott Turner and Jack Kemp have also played in the NFL.

Joe Bookman won yesterday’s challenge. Here’s his challenge: Which two people each resigned from the Senate twice to take Cabinet positions for two different presidents?

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“In an era of suspicion, political conspiracy theories flourish online” (Washington Post)

...Chaser

“That's the real question isn't it: why? The how and the who is just scenery for the public. Oswald, Ruby, Cuba, the Mafia, keeps 'em guessing like some kind of parlor game, prevents 'em from asking the most important question: why? Why was Kennedy Killed? Who benefited? Who has the power to cover it up? Who?” — X (JFK)

Kirk A. Bado, Hotline Editor

Managing Editor: Hannah Thacker

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