Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. There are 28 days until Election Day and we’re tracking:

• WHICH races Republicans are triaging
• WHY President Trump pulled his propaganda PSAs
• HOW much tickets cost for Capitals legend Alex Ovechkin’s final home game

Let's get after it.

What's News

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: The GOP-aligned SLF and its affiliates have spent more than $395 million in ad reservations between Sept. 1 and Election Day, according to AdImpact. The GOP super PAC, the largest spender this cycle, has invested its nine-figure war chest into ten states, including seven GOP-held and three Democratic-controlled.

• BIG BENEFICIARIES. In Texas, SLF has spent $255.2 million and Texas PAC—an affiliate aimed at electing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R)—has spent $122.7 million, and One Nation has spent $17.4 million. SLF has spent $74.6 million in Ohio, $34.7 million in Michigan, $31.6 million in Maine, and $30.1 million in Iowa. The group has also spent $24.5 million in Georgia, $22.7 million in North Carolina, $13.7 million in Alaska, $13.1 million in New Hampshire, and $10.1 million in Kansas. (Hotline reporting)

• COMING ATTRACTIONS. SLF is injecting $5 million into South Carolina to defend Sen. Darline Graham (R) against 2022 SC-01 nominee Annie Andrews (D). (Axios) In a Monday Truth Social post, President Trump called the Democratic nominee an anti-transgender slur, referring to her as “Annie ‘Trannie’ Andrews.” (Truth Social)

• DEM CHANGES. The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC removed $1.1 million in North Carolina buys this week after SLF paused its future spending for former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, leaving the group with $18.8 million in future reservations in the state. (Politico) The Democratic group also spent $2.1 million for Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) through its Texas Forever affiliate. (Washington Sun)

FIRST IN HOTLINE: The Democratic-aligned American Bridge PAC today launched ad campaigns criticizing Republicans running in the Mississippi Senate race, CO-05, NC-11, and OH-07. The ads will appear on TV, digital, radio, and in mailers.

• MS SEN. The group will spend $2.1 million in Mississippi, including an ad accusing Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) of cutting Medicaid for families in the state.
• HOUSE. The PAC launched a $500,000 buy in OH-07 that includes an ad highlighting allegations of physical abuse against Rep. Max Miller (R), which he’s denied. A $380,000 buy in CO-05 accuses Rep. Jeff Crank (R) of corruption, and a $300,000 buy in NC-11 argues state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom (R) would support cuts to Medicaid if elected. (Hotline reporting)

WHITE HOUSE: Trump said he will use money from his super PAC, MAGA Inc., instead of taxpayer dollars to fund his TV ads glorifying himself that often pull from past campaign speeches. Trump said using taxpayer dollars “is a rather standard thing to do” and blamed the “Radical Left” for criticism over his decision. (AP)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Seven House races have crossed the $30 million threshold in advertising: FL-25, NC-01, IA-01, MI-07, WI-03, NY-17, and TX-34. Republicans have spent especially heavily in these districts as they seek to protect their most vulnerable members or pick up gerrymandered districts that should be falling their way. (Punchbowl News)

• MISTAH SPEAKAH! Speaker Mike Johnson starts a seven-state campaign swing in Pennsylvania today, boosting four GOP incumbents facing challenges from Democrats. (Politico)
• RENT OR OWN? “Democrats are trying to figure out where their money goes furthest. Are they better off seeking to run up their numbers by competing in less expensive races or for open seats in Republican areas? If they do, they might struggle to hold onto many of those seats in a couple of years, when there is less likelihood of a blue wave.”
• THEIR CHANCE. One such conundrum is in PA-01, where Democrats think they could hold on to the seat longterm if they could just knock off Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R), a talented vote-getter in the district that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried. (New York Times)
• TRIAGING. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said that despite the GOP’s cash advantage, Republicans need to narrow the spending map and walk “away from races they don't think they can salvage” (Axios)

NE-02: The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund is pulling ad buys from NE-02, where political strategist Denise Powell (D) is favored to defeat Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding (R) and flip the seat. The Democratic-aligned “House Majority PAC has already pared back here too.” (Punchbowl News)

AZ GOV: Gov. Katie Hobbs’ (D) campaign is hitting back at Turning Point USA’s $15 million investment to support Rep. Andy Biggs (R-05), according to Turning Point PAC’s filings with the Arizona secretary of state. Michael Beyer, Hobbs’ communications director, said in a statement that “No amount of money in the world will erase Biggs' record of protecting corrupt pedophile cult rings and raising costs on Arizonans. After Republicans have sounded the alarm for weeks about Biggs' floundering campaign, this 15 million dollar bailout from Kari Lake's allies will not change Biggs’ toxic record that is too extreme for Arizona.”

• WHAT ARIZONANS ARE SEEING. Turning Point PAC has spent or reserved $5.5 million in ads according to AdImpact, and is behind a flurry of “Democrats for Biggs” campaign signs that have drawn complaints for potentially violating state law. (Hotline reporting)

VOTING: Trump criticized election officials in Maricopa County, Arizona, “after about 3,000 ballots were mistakenly mailed early to voters,” though the misfire would have no effect on voters. Trump called Maricopa “a very, very dishonest county.” (AP)

MICHIGAN: Former President Obama will stump for 2018 GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) at an Oct. 24 rally in Detroit. The former president’s visit “could give El-Sayed a boost on the first day of Michigan’s required early in-person voting period,” especially in a region he lost to Rep. Haley Stevens (D-11) during the Democratic Senate primary. (AP)

AK GOV: The RGA is pumping $1.6 million to Kodiak PAC, a group backing the three GOP candidates for governor. The move comes after the DGA dished out $1.3 million to Forward Frontier, a group opposing the Republican candidates. (Alaska Beacon)

NEW YORK: “The New York State United Teachers” will launch a super PAC meant to flip NY-17 and NY-21, dedicating an initial $1 million to the effort.

• DCCC BUYS. The DCCC launched six-figure coordinated ad buys with Army veteran Cait Conley (D) in NY-17 and Rep. Josh Riley (D-NY 19), even as national GOP groups have pulled out of spending against the latter. (Politico)

FUNDRAISING ROUNDUP: In the Texas Senate race, Paxton raised $18 million across his campaign and joint fundraising committees in Q3. Paxton’s fundraising haul is much lower than Talarico’s $30 million haul during Q2, emphasizing the GOP nominee’s need for outside money to push him across the finish line next month. (Politico)

• VA-07. Rep. Eugene Vindman (D) raised $3.4 million in Q3 and holds $5.7 million on hand.

• TX-26. Rep. Brandon Gill (R), a GOP rising star whose reelection campaign is uncompetitive, raised $4.68 million in Q3 and holds $2.6 million on hand. (Punchbowl News)

TX GOV: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will not attend Trump’s event in San Antonio on Wednesday, citing scheduling conflicts with campaign events he already has planned. (Houston Chronicle)

• HAUL. Abbott’s campaign announced he raised $20 million from July 1 to Sept. 24. He has over $17 million cash on hand. State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) raised $13 million in the latest reporting period, including $3 million in the last ten days after independent polls showed her neck-and-neck with Abbott. Hinojosa’s campaign didn’t disclose the amount on hand. (release/release)

DEBATE ROUNDUP: In the Maine Senate race, Sen. Susan Collins (R) and former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) will debate tonight in the first of four debates. Gubernatorial nominees will debate tonight in Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, and South Carolina. (Hotline reporting)

POLLING ROUNDUP: Polls in Maine and Michigan show Democrats narrowly ahead in must-win Senate races.

• ME SEN. A Marist University poll (Oct. 1-4; 1,505 RVs; +/-3.8%) found Jackson ahead of Collins, 51%-47%. 1% backed another candidate and 1% were undecided.

• ME GOV. A poll of the governor’s race found former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (D) at 52%, lawyer Bobby Charles (R) at 40%, and state Sen. Rick Bennett (I) at 6%. 2% were undecided. (release)

• MI SEN. A Mitchell Research & Communications poll (Oct. 1; 682 LVs; +/-3.8%) found El-Sayed ahead of 2024 nominee Mike Rogers (R), 45.6%-41.4%. 7% backed third-party candidates and 6% were undecided. (release)

• NV GOV. A Noble Predictive Insights poll (Sept. 22-26; 708 LVs; +/-3.68%) found Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) and state Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) statistically tied, 42%-40%. State Board of Education member Danielle Ford (I) got 7%, other candidates got 3%, and 9% were undecided. (release)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado and House-campaigns correspondent Zach Blackburn discuss the latest updates in the race for the House, the impact of redistricting, and which seats are most likely to flip.

Hair of the Dog

“In Photos: Churches celebrate St. Francis of Assisi with blessing of the animals” (WAMU)

Our Call

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is shaking in his boots about state Rep. Gina Hinojosa as evidenced by his high cash burn rate. Abbott started this year with a staggering $105.7 million war chest, but as of Sept. 24, he had $17 million in the bank. His reserves still far outpaces Hinojosa’s, who has $4.1 million on hand according to her latest filing. But Abbott's burn rate signals he is facing fiercer competition than in 2022. When Abbott faced 2022 nominee Beto O’Rourke (D) in a race rated Likely Republican, he started the year with $62.6 million and had $16.4 million on hand by this point in the cycle. Abbott's spending is a sign that alarm bells are going off in the closing weeks, but depleting his war chest may just do the trick to secure a fourth term. — Abby Turner

Fresh Brewed Buzz

“Jim Bakker, who lost his ‘PTL Club’ televangelism empire in sex and money scandals, dies at 86” (AP)

Disgraced former Speaker Dennis Hastert, “whose political legacy as Congress' longest-serving Republican House speaker was later fouled by allegations that he had molested high school athletes during his prior career as a teacher and wrestling coach, has died, a coroner said Monday. He was 84.” (NPR)

“Potential Iranian Drone Attack Led to Exit of U.S. Aircraft From British Air Base” (New York Times)

Tickets for Capitals legend Alex Ovechkin’s final home game against the Pittsburgh Penguins “are already reaching staggering prices” after The Great 8 announced his retirement on Monday. (WUSA)

“The hosts of ‘Pod Save America’ have built a media juggernaut—and are using it to channel a new progressive rage.” (Peter Savodnik, The Free Press)

“Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s ‘Machine Gun,’ Has a New Gig at Fox News” (New York Times)

“The White House is refusing to allow Politico on Air Force One on Monday, which means the news organization cannot fulfill its press corps pool responsibilities.” (CNN)

Rooster's Crow

The House is in at 4 p.m. for a pro forma session. The Senate is in at 1:30 p.m. for a pro forma session.

President Trump will attend two policy meetings at 11 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. The president and first lady Melania Trump will host a reception for Gold Star families at 1 pm. At 4 p.m. Trump will deliver remarks at the Sparrows Point Shipyard in Baltimore before returning to the White House.

Swizzle Challenge

President Washington on the Mount Rushmore monument is the only one to have detail below the chin.

No one won yesterday's challenge. Here’s our challenge: Which incumbent governor was born in Japan?

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“The right should not take them for granted, and the left should not condescend or cosplay. Who’s actually going to meaningfully care about these people as human beings?” — Political strategist Ellen Carmichael on disaffected young men (Washington Sun)

...Chaser

“When I get sad I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.” — Barney Stinson (How I Met Your Mother)

Kirk A. Bado, Hotline Editor

Managing Editor: Hannah Thacker

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