Election Day is a little over a month away but it’s never too early to chart out the races to watch that could give some indication for how the night will go.
A trio of increasingly competitive races in Virginia—one of the first states to close its polls and count its ballots efficiently—could provide plenty of early canaries in the coal mine for Republicans.
Wave watch: Democrats are expected to flip Rep. Jen Kiggans’ (R-VA 02) Virginia Beach seat on the back of former Rep. Elaine Luria’s (D) strong campaign. The seat was basically 50-50 in 2024 with President Trump carrying the district by less than a point. Primary and special election turnout trends indicate that Luria should walk away from this one relatively early in the night. If Kiggans holds on, we’re in for a wild, unpredictable cycle.
Wave warning: Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R-VA 01) race has steadily shifted toward Democrats’ favor as the national environment continues to deteriorate for Republicans.New polling released today found Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor (D) leading Wittman. Trump carried the district by a little less than 5 points.
Tsunami warning: All bets are off for Republicans if Rep. John McGuire (R-VA 05) goes down in a district Trump carried by 12 points. Democrats are targeting 33 other GOP-held seats that Trump carried by 12 points or fewer throughout the country.
PACs aligned with President Trump have spent more than $180 million in ad reservations between Sept. 1 and the end of the year, according to the nonpartisan ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
TOP SPENDERS. No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC, two groups reportedly linked to President Trump, spent a combined $22.5 million on the Michigan Senate race, MAGA Inc. spent $22.1 million on the Texas Senate race, and No Going Back PAC spent $17.3 million on the Ohio Senate race.
HOUSE. No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC spent a combined $88.3 million across 40 House races. (Hotline reporting)
MIDTERM MADNESS: Republicans Set Democrats Up to Oppose Legislation Banning Congressional Stock Trading
Congressional stock trading has “become the sleeper issue of the election cycle, with accusations flying from both parties that lawmakers are using inside information to buy and sell stocks to pad their personal wealth,” spurring Senate Republicans to rush a vote on legislation that would ban the practice.
SCHEME. “Republican leaders knew that the legislation was not fully baked and did not have nearly enough support, so they tacked on some conservative election law provisions that ensured Democrats would oppose the bill.” All 47 Senate Democrats voted to block the measure, giving Republicans a window to hammer them “for allowing members to trade stocks.” (Washington Sun)
BIG PICTURE. Advertising spending on congressional races has reached $1.5 billion overall, an increase of $317 million since last week. (Washington Post)
WHITE HOUSE: Taxpayer-Funded Ad Touts Iran War
Another taxpayer-funded ad appeared on cable news channels Wednesday night promoting President Trump’s war with Iran.
DETAILS. The spot “flaunts a flashing series of missile strikes and F-22 jet acrobatics interlaced over bombastic speech from Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.” (Washington Sun)
SLIPPED HIS MIND. In a wide-ranging interview with TIME Magazine, Trump said he hasn’t thought of sending ICE agents to the polls in November. He said he doesn’t “rule anything out or in” when it comes to declaring a state of emergency ahead of the midterms. Trump said he “could use” the Insurrection Act and “a lot of people think I should use it sometimes.” (TIME)
CHECK IN THE MAIL. “The White House began mailing $500 refund checks” to roughly “1 million Americans who the administration says were overcharged for their ObamaCare insurance.” (The Hill)
2028 WATCH: Newsom Signs Laws Regulating Employer Use of AI
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed laws banning employers from using artificial intelligence “to predict a worker’s emotional state by using their biometric data,” requiring “employers to send written notices to workers if AI is responsible for mass layoffs,” and banning employers from using “AI to decide to fire someone.”
2028 QUESTION. Newsom said the moment when he decides whether to run for president “will arrive when it arrives.” (AP)
LEARNING FROM THE MASTER. Newsom watches videos of former President Clinton and seeks his advice in regular late-night phone calls.
THE BRANDING. “Newsom is pitching himself as … a seasoned technician of center-left governance who steered the fourth-largest economy in the world with one hand and fought MAGA with the other.”
ABUNDOCRAT. Newsom credits New York Times columnist Ezra Klein with pressuring him “to dig into the environmental laws that block infrastructure and housing.”
THE REMEDY. Newsom is sketching out a 36-page political blueprint dubbed “Project 2029,” a play on the MAGA blueprint “Project 2025.” His proposals include “zoning reform … new domestic strategies and tariffs, preschool things, a cap on childcare, family leave, paid sick leave, child tax credits,” and industrial decarbonization.
OLD WOUNDS. Newsom suggested former Vice President Kamala Harris is weak, complaining her 2024 campaign “didn’t stand up for California’s Medi-Cal expansion to undocumented immigrants.”
NO TIME LIKE THE PRESIDENT. Asked whether he would drop out of the 2028 presidential race if Harris announces a campaign after him, Newsom said, “You can’t hold off on making a decision, waiting, waiting, waiting. But I don’t think that will—I’m not concerned about that, candidly.” (Vanity Fair)
THE NEXT KENNEDY CAMPAIGN. Sen. John Kennedy’s (R-LA) trip to Ohio to boost Sen. Jon Husted (R) reportedly “helped raise more than $2 million.” Kennedy has also been out to boost former Sen. John Sununu (R) in New Hampshire and has headlined state party events in Indiana and Tennessee.
NEXT STOPS. Kennedy said he plans to visit Georgia, Michigan, and other Senate battlegrounds.
SENATE FOR NOW. Kennedy plans to run for reelection in the Senate in 2028 but said people with “a lot of money” have tried to recruit him to a presidential run. He summed up his feelings on a White House bid as “never say never.” (Politico)
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: NRSC Chair, Schumer Differ on Midterm Outlook
NRSC Chairman Tim Scott said on Wednesday that “Republicans will hold the Senate majority without any question,” but said he wouldn’t provide a “specific number” on the size of the GOP’s majority next term. It’s a departure from his previous predictions that Republicans will hold 54 or 55 Senate seats following the midterms. Scott added that “expanding the majority is not outside the realm of reason.” (Hotline reporting)
SCHUMER SMILES. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the Democrats’ odds of retaking the majority are “50/50. We’re right on the edge of winning. Two things could have us lose. One, they steal the election. … The second thing is money.” (Semafor)
BLOCKED. Senate Democrats blocked two GOP-led bills on congressional stock trading and voter ID and data centers on Wednesday, denying Republicans a win on their last day in session before Election Day. Sen. Jon Husted’s (R-OH) Ratepayer Protection Act and Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R-NE) Stop Insider Trading Act failed to break the 60-vote filibuster. (NBC News/Politico)
AD ROUNDUP: Ken Paxton’s $20M Ad Blitz
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) launched a $20 million ad campaign, “one of the largest-ever single media investments in a Texas Senate race.” Paxton’s ad buy adds onto Republicans’ massive ad spending advantage in the Lone Star State over state Rep. James Talarico (D). (Politico)
OHIO. The GOP-aligned SLF is adding $14 million to its investment in Ohio for Sen. Jon Husted (R). The GOP super PAC’s latest reservation brings the groups’ total investment in the Buckeye State to $93 million. Nearly $250 million has been spent on the special election between Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). (NBC News)
CRYPTO CORNER. Digital Freedom Fund PAC, a crypto-aligned super PAC primarily funded by billionaires Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, invested $3 million into a direct mail campaign boosting Husted over Brown. Half of the investment will be spent on pro-Husted mailers and the other half will be spent on anti-Brown mail. Fairshake PAC, another crypto super PAC, previously announced plans to spend at least $30 million against Brown. (Politico)
REINFORCEMENTS. Defend the Vote launched a $7 million TV buy slamming Husted over data centers, reminding the audience that the senator is being called “the face of data centers.” The 30-second ad aims to tie data centers to higher electric bills. (Punchbowl News)
POLLING ROUNDUP: Progressive Nominees Face Margin-of-Error Races
Polls in Maine and Michigan show progressive Democratic Senate nominees lagging behind their party’s more moderate gubernatorial candidates.
MAINE. A co/efficient survey (Sept. 28-30; 1,240 LVs; +/-2.77%) found Sen. Susan Collins (R) at 48% and former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) at 46%. 6% were undecided. (release)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. A margin-of-error race is a good sign for Collins, who is benefitting from a GOP ad spending advantage and a higher name ID. The senator is certainly facing difficult headwinds entering November, but just like 2020, she shouldn’t be counted out.
MICHIGAN. A Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw and Company Research poll (Sept. 24-28; 1,028 LVs; +/-3%) found 2018 GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 50% and 2024 nominee Mike Rogers (R) at 49%. 1% were undecided.
COMPARISON. A poll of registered voters (Sept. 24-28; 1,203 RVs; +/-2.5%) found El-Sayed ahead of Rogers, 51%-48%. An August poll found Rogers ahead of El-Sayed, 51%-47%. (Fox News)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Both nominees are within the margin of error, but it’s notable that El-Sayed’s numbers have improved in roughly one month while Rogers remains underwater.
NORTH CAROLINA. A Catawba College/YouGov survey (Sept. 4-15; 885 LVs) found former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) ahead of former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, 48%-37%. 5% backed another candidate and 10% were undecided. (release)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Cooper’s advantage in this race can be seen in his 14% support among President Trump’s 2024 voters. The former governor also led Whatley, 39%-32%, among non-2024 voters, hindering the Republican’s ability to consolidate the GOP base or make inroads elsewhere.
SOUTH DAKOTA. A Zenith Research poll (Sept. 24-27; 500 LVs; +/-4.4%) conducted for 2022 nominee Brian Bengs (I) found Sen. Mike Rounds (R) ahead of the independent, 53%-47%, with undecided voters pushed. (release)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. South Dakota, similar to Idaho and Nebraska, could see independent Senate candidates make inroads in otherwise GOP-heavy parts of the country. Yet South Dakota voted for Trump by 29 points in 2024, much more than the president’s 20-point victory in Nebraska.
FLORIDA: DSCC Chair Virtually Stumps for Angie Nixon
DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand will host a virtual event for state Rep. Angie Nixon (D) today, boosting the Democratic nominee in her race against Sen. Ashley Moody (R). “Nixon said this week that the DSCC has not committed to helping her air ads.” (Washington Sun)
MAINE: Troy Jackson Apologizes to Jewish Mainers
Former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) apologized to Jewish Mainers after saying in a WCSH interview this week that Jewish people don't like to use the term “genocide” to describe Israel’s war in Gaza “only because, you know, they're Jewish.” Jackson affirmed his use of the term in a statement, but apologized for making a “generalization about Jewish Mainers' views that doesn't reflect what I meant to say. I apologize for the pain that caused.” Jackson also pledged to “fight antisemitism and work for lasting peace and security for Palestinians and Israelis." (WCSH)
MICHIGAN: Jewish Michiganders Pressure Abdul El-Sayed With Policy Demands
Nonnegotiable Michigan, a group of Jewish Michigan Democrats that includes state Rep. Noah Arbit (D) and University of Michigan Regent Mark Bernstein (D), raised concerns about 2018 GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D). The group is also pushing the Democratic nominee, who is critical of the Israeli government, to “affirm five baseline commitments to American and Israeli Jewish safety, self-determination, statehood and political participation.”
NOT A MONOLITH. El-Sayed holds some support from Michigan’s Jewish community, including state Attorney General Dana Nessel (D), former Reps. Carl Levin (D) and Andy Levin (D), and Michigan Jews for Democracy. (Michigan Advance)
FLIP IT. Saginaw County Sheriff William Federspiel (D) endorsed 2024 nominee Mike Rogers (R) over El-Sayed. Federspiel notably endorsed 2022 GOV nominee Tudor Dixon (R) over Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) during the 2022 governor’s race. (WJRT)
OHIO: Facebook Glitch Messes With Sherrod Brown’s Ads
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) said in a Sunday Substack post that a “technical glitch” with Facebook’s ad platform caused half of his campaign ads to “go dark with no notice,” potentially costing the campaign “thousands and thousands of dollars—and potentially thousands of votes.” A Meta spokesperson confirmed the error and said Brown’s campaign ads “have since been restored” with no charge for the undelivered ads. (Politico)
TEXAS: James Talarico Reverses Anti-Fossil Fuel Money Pledge
State Rep. James Talarico (D) reversed a 2022 pledge he took as a state legislator to refuse campaign donations from individuals working in the oil, coal, and natural gas industries. No Fossil Fuel Money, a coalition of 25 environmental-focused organizations, identified nearly $37,000 in donations that are considered pledge violations. A Talarico spokesperson said the campaign is keeping the donations, adding that the Democrat “supports an all-of-the-above energy strategy.” (NBC News)
The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and House Majority Forward announced raising $230 million in Q3. In 2024, the groups raised about $150 million. The release didn’t come with a cash-on-hand total. (Punchbowl News)
NY-17. Army veteran Cait Conley (D) announced raising more than $5 million in Q3. (Politico)
PA-07. Firefighter Bob Brooks (D) announced raising more than $2.5 million in Q3 for his race against Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R). (Politico)
HOUSE POLLING ROUNDUP: Lawler, Cait Conley Neck-and-Neck
An Emerson College/PIX11 News poll (Sept. 27-29; 400 LVs; +/-4.9%) found Army veteran Cait Conley (D) leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R) within the margin of error, 48% to 46%. President Trump received a 43% approval and 53% disapproval ratings in the survey. (release)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. This Hudson Valley race is about as Toss Up as a race can get. Lawler is well-known and well-liked in the region, but it might not be enough to save him from the anti-Trump political gravity. For now, though, it’s a margin-of-error race, and public and private polling is showing as much.
VA-01. A Washington Post-Schar School poll (Sept. 23-28; 609 LVs; +/-4.5%) found Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor (D) leading Rep. Rob Wittman (R), 50%-46%.
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. After VA-02, Wittman’s seat is the Democratic Party’s best chance at a flip in Virginia. Taylor’s status as a prosecutor lets her slot into the successful archetype of a service-oriented Democrat, and Virginia’s been hit hard by federal layoffs.
VA-05. The Washington Post-Schar School survey (Sept. 23-28; 600 LVs; +/-4.6%) found Rep. John McGuire (R) leading former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) 51%-45%. (Washington Post)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Meanwhile, the Democrats are making a push in a much more Republican district. Trump won the central Virginia district by about 12 points, but McGuire’s embrace of the president and his agenda could cost him as Trump’s favorability continues to slip.
TX-09. An internal poll (Sept. 18-19; 560 RVs; +/-4%) conducted by Public Policy Polling for activist Leticia Gutierrez (D) found her garnering 39%, trailing Army veteran Alex Mealer’s (R) 45%. (Semafor)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Trump carried the newly redrawn TX-09 by about 20 points in 2024, making the district one of the heaviest lifts for Democrats. Mealer is the clear favorite, but if Democrats want to spend in the region, Gutierrez could make it a competition.
TX-10. An internal poll (Sept. 18-22; 613 LVs; +/-4.3%) conducted by Change Research for Army veteran Caitlin Rourk (D) found her trailing attorney Chris Gober (R), 48%-41%. (Semafor)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. In an overwhelmingly blue tsunami, Democrats might have a shot at nabbing the open seat vacated by Rep. Michael McCaul (R). Gober’s ties to former Trump adviser Elon Musk have put him on the hot seat in the district, but he should still sail to Congress, barring an extraordinary upset.
TX-15. The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC released a Normington Petts poll (Sept. 24-28; 400 LVs: +/-4.9%) showing musician Bobby Pulido (D) leading Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) outside of the margin of error, 54%-41%. (CNN)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Trump won TX-15 by 18 points two years ago, and such a swing would shock even the most optimistic Democrats. South Texas polling can be tricky, but if any district could host such a swing, it might be the 15th, which is about 80% Latino.
LOUISIANA 06: Attack Ad Highlights Rape Allegation
An ad from the Louisiana First Victory Fund “highlighted a 19-year-old Iberia Parish Sheriff Department’s report” in which state Sen. Blake Miguez (R) was accused of rape by his then-girlfriend. “The report said she fled their apartment in New Iberia, hid from Miguez, called 911 but ended up not pressing charges,” and he has denied the allegation.
JUNGLE PRIMARY. Miguez is running against state Sen. Rick Edmonds (R) and several other candidates in the redrawn district’s jungle primary to replace Rep. Cleo Fields (D). Club for Growth has backed Miguez with ad campaigns. (Times-Picayune/New Orleans Advocate)
MAINE: Hannah Pingree Isn’t Taking Her Race for Granted
Former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (D) “has all but sealed the deal in the state's governor race, while the Senate race comes down to the wire.” But she told Hotline “she’s not taking this race for granted.” She has proposed a moratorium on data centers and banning Flock cameras in her bid against lawyer Bobby Charles (R) and state Sen. Rick Bennett (I).
PINGREE SAYS: “We have seen unbelievable enthusiasm, and I would say Democrats and independent voters are fired up. We had double the turnout among Democrats in the Democratic primary as compared to the Republican primary for governor, and a lot of the unenrolled voters who are allowed to vote in either primary chose to vote in the Democratic primary. Mainers are very frustrated about where the country is going.”
PINGREE-COLLINS VOTERS. Pingree and Sen. Susan Collins (R) has seen some crossover in polling as the Senate race remains neck-and-neck. Pingree said, “I think people admire women and women leaders,” but “there are a lot of women in the state of Maine who are concerned about reproductive rights, and that is an issue in which people are pretty fired up.” (Hotline reporting)
POLLING ROUNDUP: Tom Tiffany, David Crowley Tied in WI
A Marquette Law School poll (Sept. 16-23; 692 LVs; +/-4.8%) found Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) and Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-07) statistically tied, 49%-46%, with 5% undecided. (release)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Tiffany hasn’t been bogged down by President Trump like other Republicans have. That’s because he tried to distance himself from the president on day one of this campaign, including not focusing on him in advertisements. While other Republicans are feeling the pressure of Trump’s slipping approval ratings and worsening national environment, Tiffany is remaining insulated, but he still isn’t immune to the headwinds.
ALABAMA. An Alabama Policy Action poll (Sept. 21-25; 800 RVs; +/-3.5%) conducted by Napolitan News Service found Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) leading Sen. Doug Jones (D), 50%-37%. (Yellowhammer News)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Even if Democrats blow past expectations on Election Day, Alabama is likely still out of reach.
KANSAS. A GSG poll (Sept. 13-16; 800 LVs; +/-3.5%) by the Democratic Attorneys General Association found state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D) and state Senate President Ty Masterson (R) statistically tied, 49%-46%. (Washington Sun)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Other polls have had Masterson in the lead. This is Republicans’ best shot for a gubernatorial pick up, but it won’t be a shoo in. Holscher is finding strength in her call for a data center moratorium.
MAINE. A co/efficient survey (Sept. 28-30; 1,240 LVs; +/-2.77%) found former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (D) at 47%, lawyer Bobby Charles (R) at 38%, and state Sen. Rick Bennett (I) at 6%. 9% were undecided. (release)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. This race is night and day to the Senate and ME-02 races. Pingree has put this race away, and isn’t seeing the same struggles as her fellow Democrats in winning over independent or Republican voters.
MICHIGAN. A Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw and Company Research poll (Sept. 24-28; 1,028 LVs; +/-3%) found Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) ahead of Rep. John James (R-10), 54%-45%. 1% were undecided. (Fox News)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. James hasn’t led in a single public poll since the primary. This race likely stays in Lean Democrat given the competitive Senate contest it shares a ballot with. But this race is likely going to Democrat’s based on Benson’s performance.
OREGON. A DHM Research poll (Sept. 17-27; 915 LVs; +/-3.24%) commissioned by Oregon Public Broadcasting found 2022 nominee Christine Drazan (R) and Gov. Tina Kotek (D) statistically tied, 46%-44%. Another candidate got 3% and 8% were undecided. (OPB)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Kotek hasn’t led in any polling since the primary. Drazan is giving voters who are apathetic about Kotek an alternative to explore. But when it comes to Election Day, voters in the reliably blue state will likely run home to Kotek.
STATE OF THE STATES: CPR Shifts FL, TX to Lean Republican
The Cook Political Report with Amy Watler shifted Florida and Texas’ gubernatorial contests from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
FLORIDA. Democrats believe former Rep. David Jolly’s (D) “moderate profile gives independents and even disaffected Republicans a compelling reason to potentially split their tickets.” Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19) “a vocal pro-Trump Republican, recently removed several references to” President Trump “from his website.” But the Sunshine State “still has strong Republican DNA and has shattered past Democratic hopes, and it’s hard to see Jolly ultimately pulling off an upset given the financial imbalance.”
TEXAS. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is taking hits from “worsening environment in the Lone Star State.” State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) is seeing a boost from “an organic environmental shift in the state, and Hinojosa—particularly because she is a Latina with a surname that’s well-known in the Rio Grande Valley—has a unique opportunity to take advantage of the ways” state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is dragging down the Republican ticket. But Abbott still has the cash advantage over Hinojosa. (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter)
CALIFORNIA: Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton Spar in Only Scheduled Debate
Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) sought to tie former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R) to President Trump in Wednesday's CNN debate, likely their only debate ahead of Election Day.
THE TRUMP OF CALIFORNIA. Becerra “compared Hilton’s proposed tax cuts—including eliminating state income taxes on the first $150,000 Californians earn, along with a flat 8% tax rate on income above that level—to those enacted by Trump, and claimed Hilton is ‘proposing Trump tax cuts, believing you’re going to get better results.’”
THE BIDEN YEARS. Hilton hammered Becerra’s record as HHS secretary, “including his department’s handling of a record surge of unaccompanied migrant minors who arrived at the US-Mexico border.” He also argued ‘that Democrats who have full control of the state’s government in Sacramento deserve the blame for making it “impossible for regular, working people to live in this state anymore.’” (CNN)
OHIO: Vivek Ramaswamy-Backed Gas Tax Holiday Passes
“Ohio state lawmakers have approved a 90-day gas tax holiday at the urging of” 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R). Gov. Mike DeWine (R) signed the holiday into law on Thursday. Ramaswamy pushed for the gas tax suspension, with the help of his running mate state Senate President Rob McColley (R), after former state Health Department Director Amy Acton (D) first proposed the tax break. (Ohio Capital Journal)
OREGON: RGA, Nike Co-Founder Aren’t Going to Bat for Christine Drazan
The two biggest contributors to 2022 nominee Christine Drazan’s (R) 2022 bid are so far staying on the sidelines in 2026: the RGA and Nike co-founder Phil Knight. The two gave a total of $8.5 million in 2022, but “Drazan’s campaign had not reported a single contribution” from either. RGA Chair Greg Gianforte appeared alongside her at a Wednesday event in Eugene, and an RGA spokesperson declined to comment on “the organization’s spending strategy or plans.” (OregonLive)
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The GOP cavalry isn’t coming in for Drazan. Multiple polls have shown her within striking distance of Gov. Tina Kotek (D), who has been dogged by complaints about crime and homelessness in Portland. However, neither the RGA and Knight, her biggest backers in 2022, are convinced that trying to defeat an incumbent governor is worth the investment. Even if that last minute boost comes in, it might not be enough. Drazan’s momentum points more to dissatisfaction with Kotek’s first term than a real appetite for Republican leadership in the traditionally blue state during a rocky midterm year for the GOP. Kotek is used to close races, and on-the-fence voters will likely hold their noses at the polls to vote for her.
SETTING THE STAGE. Kotek and Drazan will face off in their first debate tonight at the University of Oregon. (Salem Statesman Journal)
TEXAS: Latino Leaders Turn Up the Heat In Push for DGA Investment
State Rep. Gina Hinojosa’s (D) “allies have recruited a cadre of officials, including some from the early-voting states of Nevada and New Mexico, to push” DGA Chair Andy Beshear (D) “to direct the group to spend $10 million on her campaign against” Gov. Greg Abbott (R). And if the DGA “fails to invest in her bid, some Latino leaders could withhold their support from” Beshear, the Kentucky governor, “should he, as expected, run for president in 2028.” (New York Times)
SHERIFFS WANT A NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN. Hinojosa is painting herself as a supporter of law enforcement and securing the border in her latest ad. In “Law Enforcement,” law enforcement officials criticize Abbott for loving “law enforcement on camera,” but “off camera we are on our own.” The officials then say Hinojosa will work across the aisle to back “Stronger borders, safer communities, and fewer kids heading down the wrong path. That’s why I’m voting for Gina Hinojosa.” (release)
WISCONSIN: Tom Tiffany Leads in Fundraising Thanks to Billionaire Backers
Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-07) hauled in $26.3 million over the last two months, “thanks largely to transfers from the state GOP after the party received $27.6 million from billionaires Diane Hendricks, Dick Uihlein and Liz Uihlein.” The state party transferred $24.2 million to Tiffany during the reporting period.
CASH MONEY. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) raised $10.2 million during that time period, including “$2.5 million in transfers from the state Dem Party and a series of PAC contributions.” (WisPolitics)
The midterm elections are officially next month. But before voters head to the polls, they must weather the American political storm aptly referred to as the “October surprise.” Coined by President Reagan’s campaign in 1980 over the potential for then-President Carter to strike a deal that would end the Iran hostage crisis, the term has come to describe last-minute major developments that can upend one campaign or boost another. In October 2000, a Maine journalist revealed the Republican nominee, George W. Bush, had been arrested for drunk driving 24 years earlier, a revelation one Bush strategist said likely cost the candidate the popular vote and as many as five states. The 2016 election packed multiple October surprises, including the release of the Access Hollywood tape where President Trump was overheard using explicit language toward women and then-FBI Director James Comey’s announcement the bureau would investigate Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server. Former NFL running back Herschel Walker’s 2022 bid for the Senate in Georgia was marred by controversy after it was revealed he had paid for his wife’s 2009 abortion while claiming to be “100% pro-life.” Walker would go on to narrowly lose in a runoff election to Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA).
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