Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. There are seven days until Election Day and we’re tracking:

• WHICH South Carolina Republican endorsed the Democratic Senate nominee
• WHERE congressional leaders are campaigning
• WHY there's a political food fight over the Cheesecake Factory 

Let's get after it.

Think you can outplay the politics pros?

Three quick games that test how well you really know the people, races and policies shaping the day’s politics

What's News

FIRST IN HOTLINE: A Hart Research poll (Oct. 20-25; 950 LVs; +/-3.5%) conducted for A More Affordable Nevada, the DGA-backed group, found state Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) leading Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), 49%-45%. This is the first publicly released poll that shows Ford leading outside the margin of error. (Hotline reporting)

REPUBLICANS: President Trump will campaign with football stars Johnny Manziel, Colt McCoy, and Danny Amendola in campaign appearances in Lubbock and Corpus Christi, Texas. “The appearances bring some of Texas' biggest football names onto the campaign trail in a state where the sport commands an enormous following,” and they continue Trump’s pattern of incorporating football onto the campaign trail. (Axios)

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Democrats are targeting several GOP-held seats in difficult terrain, but “it is far from certain that Democrats can pull off a single upset in any of the red states typically considered out of reach for them.” If Democrats fail to deliver wins in some of these GOP strongholds, “it could be a long time before they have another chance.” (New York Times)

VOTING: In a 2-1 decision, an appeals court “declined to rule on whether California elections officials can count roughly 20,000 ballots that the Justice Department alleges likely belong to noncitizen voters.” The panel broadly ruled that it was too early for an appeals court to weigh in, and Trump administration and California officials will relitigate the issue today before a federal district judge. (AP)

• GO NORTH. “In a letter to Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs, the Justice Department” asked Washington state to set aside ballots from 405 “people it alleges registered to vote without U.S. citizenship.” The DOJ “said it had identified 1,500 votes cast by” the 405 people in past elections. (AP)

KS GOV: Building the Future, “an offshoot of the pro-AI super PAC Leading the Future,” is spending more than $1.5 million to boost state Senate President Ty Masterson (R). The group said it would back candidates who support guardrails “‘while ensuring American leadership in AI and creating good-paying jobs for American workers.’” State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D), who has proposed a data center moratorium, “called Masterson a ‘stooge for Big Tech’ who wants ‘to put a data center on every corner and in every cornfield.’” (NBC News)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: House Republicans set their leadership elections for Nov. 10. If Republicans lose their majority, as many expect, Speaker Mike Johnson could face a challenge for minority leader, perhaps from Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH 04). (Politico)

• ULTERIOR. Democratic wins in redistricted races could prove vital for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for two reasons: “to prove that Trump’s mid-decade congressional redistricting has backfired, and to create a Democratic majority that’s easier to govern.”
• UNPOPULAR. “Jeffries may face a fractious progressive base ready to challenge his leadership even before he claims the House’s top gavel. But purple-district candidates” don’t see him as a polarizing figure like Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA 11), the former speaker, once was. (Semafor)
• PUSHING IT. “House Democrats are pushing into redder and redder territory. History shows those last-minute moves don’t usually pan out, even in favorable cycles.” Since 2018, Democrats haven’t flipped any seats added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue priority “list in the September or October before Election Day, according to a Politico analysis.” (Politico)
• WHERE’S LEADERSHIP? Johnson will visit Rep. Mike Lawler (R) in NY-17 today. (Punchbowl News) Jeffries met with Houston-area Reps. Christian Menefee (D-TX 18) and Sylvia Garcia (D-TX 29) to discuss immigration policy. (Houston Public Media)

GA GOV: The DGA is investing another $5 million to back former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms’ (D) bid against self-funding healthcare executive Rick Jackson (R). DGA Chair Andy Beshear made the announcement at a canvass launch Monday in Atlanta with Bottoms and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). The group has invested a total of $16 million in the Toss Up race. (WANF)

TX GOV: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) raised $26 million between Sept. 25-Oct. 24. He spent $35.4 million and has $8.6 million on hand. State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) hauled in $17.5 million, spent $19.1 million, and has $990,000 in the bank. (Texas Ethics Commission/Texas Ethics Commission)

• ON AIR. Somos PAC launched a six-figure Spanish-language digital ad campaign to support Hinojosa. One spot, titled “No Te Dejes,” highlights Hinojosa’s upbringing in the Rio Grande Valley. Hinojosa launched her campaign last year “No Te Dejes,” which can translate to knowing yourself and fighting for it. (release)

NEW YORK: The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC placed its first broadcast buy in NY-03, a $980,000 ad campaign to back Rep. Tom Suozzi (D). Republicans have spent millions in the district, but Democrats, confident in Suozzi’s chances, hadn’t responded in kind, until now. GOP groups have pulled out of the district, though. (Politico)

• PUT THE FRIES IN THE BAG. Lawler donned a McDonald’s apron and worked the drive-thru, telling voters he’d given them “extra SALT,” playing on his support for state and local tax deductions. (Judge Street Journal)

WHITE HOUSE: “The Justice Department criminally charged” former FBI Director James Comey “over allegedly leaking a sensitive national security document” to the New York Times in October 2016 the third instance of prosecutors making accusations against Comey. The Justice Department said “the document that the two charges are outlined in … is not enforceable and that they have yet to file their official charges against Comey. The move is instead an attempt to push back the 10-year deadline on bringing charges under the Espionage Act against the former FBI director, which expired earlier this month.” (CNN)

FL-14: Former state Rep. Mike Beltran (R) “filed a defamation lawsuit against a woman who had been trafficked as a teen — part of his legal work for” Chris Dorworth, an associate of former Rep. Matt Gaetz “who is being accused alongside the former congressman of participating in an alleged sex trafficking scheme.” A Beltran spokesperson “criticized The 19th for reporting on Beltran’s work representing Dorworth and said Beltran was carrying out his ‘constitutionally mandated duty.’” (The 19th)

SC SEN: Former Govs. David Beasley (R) and Jim Hodges (D) issued a joint endorsement for 2022 SC-01 nominee Annie Andrews (D) as she challenges Sen. Darline Graham (R). Beasley notably lost reelection to Hodges in 1998. (release)

• PULSE CHECK. A Targoz Market Research poll (Oct. 16-25; 895 LVs) conducted for the South Carolina Policy Council found Graham at 47%, Andrews at 46%, and two third-party candidates at 3%. 4% were undecided. (WHNS)

NC SEN: Former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley returned to the air over the weekend after temporarily pausing his TV ads for roughly two weeks. One 30-second ad argues “the far left would be in charge” if voters elected former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) next week. Cooper’s campaign is launching its own seven-figure ad buy, one “that’s larger than the amount of money Whatley’s campaign has on hand.” (Washington Sun)

ME SEN: Former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) launched a seven-figure ad blitz in his final pitch of the campaign. Titled “Heart,” the 30-second spot argues that “Mainers will decide the direction of this whole country,” insinuating that a vote for Sen. Susan Collins (R) is supporting the best interests of the president and billionaires. (MS NOW)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado brings on DCCC communications director Courtney Rice to check in on the race for the House.

Hair of the Dog

“‘Zero-energy companionship’: bizarre hobby takes seed among China’s stressed young adults” (The Guardian)

Our Call

If the bottom falls out for Republicans, watch NJ-02. The long tail of GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli’s 14-point loss in the governor’s race last year has left party donors disengaged and voters dismayed. Now, early turnout numbers are slumping for Republicans and rising for Democrats, even compared to last year’s blowout. This could cost Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-02) his seat. Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock (D) remains a longshot, especially given Van Drew’s ability to outpace the Republican ticket, winning 58% in 2024. But there’s a chance that Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) devastated the Jersey GOP so badly last year that Van Drew is at risk. — Zach Blackburn

Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson has vowed to balance data center construction with sensible regulation, but a $1.5 million boost from a pro-AI PAC could complicate that message. Masterson has supported data center development with local controls and protections, a stark contrast to state Sen. Cindy Holscher’s call for a moratorium. As Hotline previously reported, Holscher defeated establishment pick state Sen. Ethan Corson (D) in part because he didn’t back a moratorium, and the same stance could bite Masterson. Now the outside spending adds fuel to Holscher’s fire, who has tapped into data center discontent as a main platform in her populist campaign. She can position this final week of the race as a referendum on AI and corporate interests trying to sway this must-win seat for Republicans. — Abby Turner

Fresh Brewed Buzz

“Bob Woodward Thought Jeff Bezos Had His Back. Now He Feels Disillusioned.” (New York Times)

The Cheesecake Factory controversy has now entered its fourth day in the news cycle with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent taking questions outside the D.C. franchise. (Fox News)

“Is The Cheesecake Factory Really a Restaurant for Regular Americans?” (Washington Sun)

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) “and a group of fellow basketball enthusiasts have been secretly using the NYPD Police Academy’s gymnasium in Queens to play pickup ball, according to four people familiar with the games.” (Politico)

“Chuck Todd, Chris Cillizza to host live election night broadcast” (Axios)

“A federal judge agreed Monday to extend an order blocking the Trump administration’s renovation plans for a century-old public golf course in the nation’s capital.” (AP)

“‘Screaming into a void’: why the job market in D.C. is uniquely soul-crushing right now” (The 51st)

Rooster's Crow

The House and Senate are out.

President Trump will depart the White House for Corpus Christi, Texas. At 3 p.m., he will deliver remarks, then will depart Corpus Christi for Lubbock. The president will deliver remarks at 7 p.m., then will return to the White House. 

Swizzle Challenge

Georgia did not attend the First Continental Congress.

Maggie Sampsell-Jones won yesterday’s challenge. Here’s our challenge: Who was the first American to receive the Nobel Peace Prize?

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“A Catholic Republican 2028 Nominee Would Make History. Does Anyone Care?” (Washington Sun)

...Chaser

“Is the Pope Catholic?” — Carol Burnett when asked if she's a Democrat (UPI)

Kirk A. Bado, Hotline Editor

Managing Editor: Hannah Thacker

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