Top of the Hour

Good morning from Hotline. Today we’re tracking:

• WHO is leading in the latest poll of the swingy MI-10
• WHERE President Trump will spend is campaign money
• WHY more trees are coming down in East Potomac

Let's get after it.

What's News

FIRST IN HOTLINE: The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC sponsored an MI-10 poll (Aug. 10-13; 600 LVs; +/-4.4%) that found former special-victims prosecutor Christina Hines (D) and Army veteran Mike Bouchard Jr. (R) tied at 45%. Global Strategy Group conducted the polling in the Toss Up district, which Rep. John James (R) is leaving to run for governor. (release)

MA-06: Former State Department official Mariah Lancaster (D) dropped out of the race to succeed Rep. Seth Moulton (D) and endorsed state Rep. Tram Nguyen (D) ahead of Tuesday’s primary. Nguyen is one of several perceived frontrunners in the Solidly Democratic district’s primary. (Boston Globe)

WHITE HOUSE: President Trump’s actions since retaking office in 2025 “have complicated—if not undermined” Republicans’ promises to lower inflation and slash government spending. Trump renewed his global trade war and took aim at Canada, which “could drive up prices for Americans,” and his war with Iran reached the six-month mark on Friday. (New York Times)

REPUBLICANS: Although Trump will not appear on the ballot in November, his super PAC, MAGA Inc., “plans to run advertisements that feature his name and play up his political record.” Despite the president’s sagging popularity, “vulnerable Republicans cannot afford to antagonize Trump because they need his help to turn out his base and tap into the $400 million war chest he controls.” (Washington Post)

ALASKA: Former state Sen. Tom Begich (D), who came in second in the all-party gubernatorial primary, dropped out and endorsed former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) in the general election. Kreiss-Tomkins, now the lone Democrat, will face conservative activist Bernadette Wilson (R), former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson (R), and state Attorney General Treg Taylor (R) in November. (Anchorage Daily News)

• SENATE SHUFFLE. Former U.S. Forest Service employee Dan J. Sullivan (R) qualified for the Senate general election, but the fourth spot is too close to call between LGBTQ+ activist David Leslie (D) and perennial candidate Gerald Heikes (R). Leslie is ahead of Heikes by 104 votes. (AP) Leslie said he hasn’t decided whether he’ll stay in or withdraw from the race ahead of today’s withdrawal deadline. (Bolts)

MI SEN: 2018 GOV candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) apologized to a group of Jewish Democrats on Saturday for a “hurt people hurt people” comment he made in a March statement on an attack against a Detroit-area synagogue. El-Sayed said that “nobody deserves to have their pain trampled on,” adding he “should have just issued a statement, of course condemning it, and it just should have been the full stop.” (New York Times)

• SELF-SABOTAGE? Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), a fervent El-Sayed backer, said he’s worried that Democratic leaders are rooting for the Democratic nominee to lose. Sanders argued some Democrats view El-Sayed as “a threat to oligarchy” and a “threat to American foreign policy and our continued support for the extremist Netanyahu government in Israel.”
• BIG BUYS. WinSenate PAC, an affiliate of the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, launched a $4.5 million ad campaign against 2024 nominee Mike Rogers’ (R) support for the Iran war. The 30-second spot argues Rogers “claimed it would end quickly, but we keep paying the price.” (Politico)

CAMPAIGN FINANCE: “About $1 billion in anonymous money is sloshing through the political landscape in 2026 … Nearly every major primary and battleground race this fall has been or will be shaped by secret funds.” Dark money in races often supersedes the war chests of the candidates themselves, relegating them to comparative bystanders in their own races. (New York Times)

NH SEN: Former Vice President Kamala Harris endorsed Rep. Chris Pappas (D-01) ahead of his Sept. 8 Democratic primary against scientist Karishma Manzur (D), a Democratic Socialists of America member. Other potential 2028 hopefuls backing Pappas include former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Cory Booker (D-NJ). (WMUR)

TX SEN: State Rep. James Talarico (D) is up with his first negative TV ad against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), spotlighting the Republican’s allegations of corruption. Titled “Most Corrupt,” the eight-figure ad buy targets Paxton’s 2023 impeachment by state House and his sizable real estate portfolio, arguing Texans “cannot afford Ken Paxton’s corruption.” The ad first aired on Saturday “during Texas Christian University’s opening football game against the University of North Carolina.” (Texas Tribune)

2028 WATCH: The Democratic Socialists of America’s “leaders are increasingly at odds over who should speak for them, what policies they stand for—and whether to support” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY 14). As DSA internally hesitated to endorse Ocasio-Cortez, she has distanced herself from the national group. (Axios)

VOTING: “The rate at which mail votes have been rejected for arriving late has ticked up in primaries this year and general elections last year in roughly a dozen states, prompting election officials to worry that the U.S. Postal Service is ill-equipped to deliver ballots in the fall midterms.” However, the Postal Service still “delivers more than 95 percent of mail ballots on time.” Some election officials are increasing the number of drop boxes in their jurisdictions and encouraging voters to use them instead of relying on the Postal Service. (New York Times)

KS GOV: A Global Strategy Group poll (Aug. 13-16; 600 LVs; +/-4%) conducted for state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D) found her and state Senate President Ty Masterson (R) statistically tied, 47%-46%. (release)

MN GOV: The state Supreme Court rejected MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell’s (R) bid for a recount of the Republican primary, where he lost to state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R) by 45,000 votes. (Minnesota Star Tribune)

WI-03: Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) has pivoted to using AI-generated videos of his challenger, 2024 nominee Rebecca Cooke (D), including false snippets of the Democrat ordering “peasants” to support her candidacy. A Van Orden spokesperson said the video is satirical, while Cooke considers the content “nasty mudslinging” and an attempt at deception. (WPR)

Paging the Hotline

Care to share your feedback on the newsletter? Have a tip? Just want to say hello? Drop us an email here.

Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado, states and governors correspondent Abby Turner, House campaign correspondent Zach Blackburn, Senate campaign correspondent Nicholas Anastácio, and national political correspondent Erika Filter share their findings from the primary season so far.

Hair of the Dog

“Wild lines shut down popular giveaway at Pokemon Worlds in SF” (SFGate)

Our Call

With President Trump’s popularity sagging and facing a distressing economic outlook, some Republicans have taken the “give us another chance” approach to the midterms. Vice President JD Vance has often said in media appearances that although the economy is not where voters want it to be, they should give the administration time for its policies to play out. However, President Trump himself has rejected this wait-and-see approach in favor of touting his successes—despite evidence to the contrary. In his rallies for downballot Republicans, he tends to tout his signature legislation the OBBBA—though he tends not to mention affordability directly, according to a NOTUS analysis. He has reportedly said MAGA Inc., his affiliated super PAC, should use its vast resources to air ads highlighting his second-term accomplishments. Republicans are in a difficult spot—they are aiming to woo the disengaged voters who turn out for Trump, but it’s not clear they’ll be able to avoid the president’s baggage in that process. — Erika Filter

Fresh Brewed Buzz

“Why We’re Not Hanging Up on Phone Polling” (Nate Cohn, New York Times)

“Several U.S. military leaders have advised Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and risks weakening their ability to confront threats elsewhere, including the U.S. homeland.” (Washington Post)

“Do D.E.I. Bike Paths Exist? The Trump Administration Says Yes.” (New York Times)

“Iran and the United States traded attacks for the first time in over a month overnight into Monday, in an exchange that risks reigniting the damaging conflict after weeks of relative military calm.” (CNN)

“Trump says Kristen Welker of 'Meet the Press' will be reported to FCC” (USA Today)

“A board of Trump loyalists keeps dragging out a legal fight over the” Kennedy Center’s future. (The Atlantic)

“At East Potomac Park, Trees Are Falling and Tensions Are Rising” (NOTUS)

Rooster's Crow

The House is in at noon. The Senate is in at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session.

President Trump will participate in a policy meeting at 2 p.m. At 3 p.m., he will make an announcement on healthcare affordability. The president will participate in signing time at 4:30 p.m. 

Swizzle Challenge

The first architect of the Capitol was William Thornton.

No one won our last challenge. Here’s our challenge: Which actor did Princess Diana dance with at the White House?

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

Shot...

“Poetry is not sexual misconduct.” — Embattled Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC 11) in a letter delivered to colleagues defending his relationships with his young female staffers (NOTUS)

...Chaser

“Oh, let's make fun of the girl who took a risk and put herself out there creatively.” — Marnie Michaels (Girls)

Kirk A. Bado, Hotline Editor

Managing Editor: Hannah Thacker

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