State Spotlight: What PA’s One-Seat Majority House Can Teach Congress

Since Democrats flipped the Pennsylvania state House in 2022, narrow control of the chamber has been decided by one seat. Tuesday night, two Democrats won special elections in reliably safe seats to maintain the party’s razor-thin majority.

There’s no room for error in Pennsylvania, just like there’s no room for error in Congress. While Republicans have a slightly larger margin in Washington, they’re not nearly as effective at passing laws and working with the minority party as their lawmaking colleagues in Pennsylvania.

“The ideology of the laws should be decided by the majority. From there, you can compromise on legislation, but it’s values you can’t compromise on,” Democratic Majority Whip Mike Schlossberg told Hotline. 

Hotline spoke to four Pennsylvania lawmakers about how they make the Legislature work under such trying conditions.

“Work for the policies and the people. Not politics,” said state Rep. David Rowe, the House Republican Policy Chair. 

The one thing all legislators that spoke to Hotline stressed was the importance of compromise, though sometimes that’s easier said than done.

Despite Democrats controlling both the state House and executive, Republicans hold the majority in the state Senate. Legislators on both sides of the aisle pointed to delivering a budget that the Senate GOP would pass last year as a prime example of the type of compromise necessary to keep the commonwealth functioning. 

“If you’re really interested in governing in an evenly divided Legislature, you have to be willing to accept that you will be divided on things, but that if you want anything done that would be considered positive, you’re going to have to swallow things you don’t like,” Minority Leader for the House Republican Caucus Jesse Topper told Hotline.

House Republican Appropriations Chairman Jim Struzzi stressed the importance of compromise in a one-seat minority, saying that legislators need to be “willing to negotiate in good faith and accept compromise” when needed. “If you can show these traits, mutual respect and positive outcomes will follow,” he said.

“Because there are only 100 or so of us, it forces you to build the relationship you need,” Schlossberg said. “Building personal relationships makes all the difference in the world. Even if you only agree on one issue.”

In Congress, some unconventional friendships have led to meaningful policy decisions—just look at Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY 04) and Ro Khanna (D-CA 17) sitting together at the State of the Union address, brought together by their joint desire to have the Epstein files released.  

“I have friends on both sides,” Topper said. “I also have people I wouldn’t necessarily hang out at a barbecue with, but that doesn’t matter.”

— Hannah Thacker 

hthacker@nationaljournal.com

Top News

MIDTERM MADNESS: The Pretender

Even if President Trump doesn’t endorse them, there’s a growing pool of Republican candidates who are running like he does.

TEXAS SENATE: Everlong

Muddled polling shows a messy field on the Democratic primary while Sen. John Cornyn (R) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) seem poised for a May runoff.

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Times Like These

DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel reflected on his tenure leading the committee in 2006 and drew parallels to the party in 2026.

GEORGIA GOVERNOR: Best of You

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) and health care executive Rick Jackson (R) have effectively turned the GOP primary into a two-man race.

Hotline's National News

Curated by Erika Filter

MIDTERM MADNESS: Trump Team Cracks Down on Wannabe Endorsed Candidates

Republican candidates who President Trump did not endorse are acting like he endorsed them anyway, causing confusion. 

• STOP THAT. Trump lawyer Jesse Franklin-Murdock sent 2024 TX-23 candidate Brandon Herrera (R), who is running again, a cease-and-desist letter, “accusing him of deceptively editing an image in a campaign mailer to make it look like he was in a photo with Trump.”

• HERE WE GO AGAIN. Trump’s team had to swat “down candidates they perceived as falsely insinuating they had Trump's support” during the 2022 cycle. (Axios)

POLLING ROUNDUP: Trump Approval Stays Below 50%

An Emerson College poll (Feb. 21-22; 1,000 LVs; +/-3%) found President Trump’s approval rating at 43%, with 55% disapproving. 

• 2028 DEMOCRATS. A subpoll of Democratic likely primary voters (438 LVs; +/-4.6%) showed the plurality, 24%, undecided on who they would support in a 2028 Democratic primary. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) had the next most support at 20%, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 16%, former Vice President Kamala Harris at 13%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY 14) at 9%, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) at 7%. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D), and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) got 5% or less. 
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Treat this more as a gauge of name ID than a gauge of who will gain support in 2028, as none of these candidates have officially announced campaigns yet. Newsom’s publicity tour over the last year appears to be working, but the other top two candidates, Buttigieg and Harris, have run presidential campaigns once before. 
• 2028 REPUBLICANS. In a subpoll of likely Republican primary voters (454 LVs; +/-4.6%), Vice President JD Vance had 52%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio came second with 20%, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) reached a distant third with 6%. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2024 candidate Nikki Haley (R), and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) reached 4% or less. 11% of voters were undecided. (release)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The Republican field is much more developed. Vance’s early lead is commanding. Rubio has publicly expressed support for a Vance presidential candidacy, and Kennedy Jr. has said he won’t pursue a 2028 campaign. This early polling indicates they might face an uphill battle if they change their minds. 

REPUBLICANS: Vance to Boast Administration Successes in Wisconsin

Vice President JD Vance will visit a machining facility in Plover, Wisconsin, today and deliver remarks touting the Trump administration following the State of the Union address. (release)

• ON THE GRILL. Hillary Clinton is set to appear in Chappaqua, New York, “for a closed-door deposition in front of the House Oversight Committee as part of its investigation into” convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Former President Clinton will appear for his deposition tomorrow. (New York Times)
• CONCEDE AND MINIMIZE. “Trump administration officials are downplaying their push to overhaul vaccine policy and instead touting their work on food and drug pricing, as some Republicans warn that vaccines could prove to be a liability in the midterm elections.” (Washington Post)

VOTING: SAVE America Act Faces Uphill Battle in the Senate

Despite President Trump’s call for Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, “getting the bill through the Senate will be impossible—unless the president and his MAGA allies convince Republican senators to find a way around” the filibuster. 

• ON THE AGENDA. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he would hold a vote on the legislation to get Democrats’ opposition on the record.
• TALK IT OUT. Some Republicans are pushing for an old-fashioned “talking filibuster,” forcing opponents to actually speak on the floor to prevent legislation on the table from passing. 
• QUICK MATH. “Even if each of the 47 Democratic senators only spoke twice for three hours on a single question, that would take 282 hours. … Amendments and various procedural motions could extend debate indefinitely. Meanwhile, other Senate businesses would be on hold.” (Wall Street Journal)
• NOT SO FAST. Thune said “there’s no way for Senate Republicans to maintain the procedural unity required in order to pass the SAVE America Act” through the talking filibuster. (Punchbowl News)
• THE BIGGER PICTURE. “With his words and deeds,” Trump “appears to be undermining Americans’ trust that the midterms will be free and fair.” He “is again warning Republicans that Democrats are going to rig the results” while promoting election deniers to federal positions, deploying Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to hunt for voter fraud, and calling for Republicans to “nationalize” elections. (New York Times)

Hotline's Senate News

Curated by Nicholas Anastácio

POLLING ROUNDUP: Juliana Stratton Gains Momentum in Ally’s Internal

A Public Policy Polling survey (Feb. 23-24; 546 LVs; +/-4.2%) conducted for the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which supports Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), found Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-08) at 29%, Stratton at 27%, and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-02) at 13% in the Illinois Senate Democratic primary. A hypothetical Stratton-Krishnamoorthi matchup found Stratton ahead, 37%-32%. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Krishnamoorthi has been the frontrunner in this primary, putting the onus on Stratton to catch up. Illinois Future PAC, a super PAC tied to Gov. JB Pritzker (D), could give the lift Stratton needs, but it could be cutting it close with the primary on March 17.

• LOUISIANA. A Quantus Insights survey (Feb. 23-24; 1,428 LVs; +/-2.8%) of the GOP primary found state Treasurer John Fleming (R) at 34%, Rep. Julia Letlow (R-05) at 25%, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) at 20%, and 21% undecided. 

• RUNOFFS. Fleming led Letlow, 42%-32%, with 25% undecided in a runoff scenario. Fleming also led Cassidy, 57%-23%, with 19% undecided. Letlow led Cassidy, 48%-27%, with 25% undecided in a runoff. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Fleming could be a thorn on both Cassidy and Letlow’s sides as both of their conservative credentials are called into question. Letlow could see reinforcements from President Trump’s allies, but it won’t guarantee that she’ll face Cassidy in the runoff.

• TEXAS. An Impact Research poll (Feb. 10-12; 800 LVs; +/-3.5%) conducted for state Rep. James Talarico (D) found him ahead of Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-30), 47%-43%, with 9% undecided. A December poll showed Crockett ahead of Talarico, 52%-35%, with 10% undecided. (release)

• TALARICO BUMP. A Public Policy Polling survey (Feb. 25; 599 LVs; +/-4%) conducted for the pro-Talarico Lone Star Rising PAC found Talarico ahead of Crockett, 48%-42%, with 10% undecided. The same poll showed Talarico at 68% favorable and 10% unfavorable, and Crockett at 76% favorable and 6% unfavorable. (Texas Tribune)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Pro-Talarico polling challenges the notion that Crockett is the frontrunner, but this race is not guaranteed to either candidate. Both Democratic rising stars have their strengths in the primary, but both will need to wait until Tuesday to see who can shine in November.

ILLINOIS: Crypto Super PAC Targets Juliana Stratton

Fairshake PAC, a crypto super PAC, is waging a “multimillion-dollar ad campaign” against Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) in the Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D). The group said it is launching “a robust effort to educate Democratic primary voters across the state over the next three weeks about Juliana Stratton’s record and hypocrisy.” 

• PROXY. Stratton doesn’t have a lengthy crypto policy record, but she’s backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Gov. JB Pritzker (D)—two Democrats not favored by the crypto industry. 
• RECORDS. Reps. Robin Kelly (D-02) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-08) both voted for an industry-backed crypto bill last year. Krishnamoorthi also backed the CLARITY Act, but Kelly voted against the bill. (Politico)

MICHIGAN: NRSC Chief Bullish About Mike Rogers

NRSC Chairman Tim Scott said on Fox News Wednesday that he views Michigan as the GOP’s best chance to flip a seat in November. Scott pointed to 2024 nominee Mike Rogers’ (R) glidepath to the GOP nomination as well as his early endorsement from the president. Scott also compared Rogers’ comeback bid to that of Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA) in 2024. (X)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Senate Republicans are conflicted on whether Georgia or Michigan is their best pickup opportunity this November. GOP strategists who’ve spoken to Hotline are more bullish on Georgia given its partisan environment. An early endorsement from President Trump cleared the Michigan field for Rogers’ comeback bid, but the same can’t be said in Georgia’s GOP primary. There’s no clear frontrunner while Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) sits on a $25.6 million war chest. Trump won Georgia by a higher margin than Michigan in 2024, but the Peach State’s shift toward Democrats and the Wolverine State’s movement toward red waters could give the GOP a different perspective.

• REINFORCEMENTS. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-11) rolled out a series of endorsements from current and former Congressional Black Caucus members. Former Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D), the most recent Black Michigan Democrat elected to the House, endorsed Stevens’ bid alongside 14 CBC members. (Punchbowl News)

TEXAS: Cornyn’s Allies Set to Monitor Tuesday’s Primary Margins

Sen. John Cornyn (R) is expected to head to a 10-week runoff against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) after Tuesday’s primary, but Republicans are still tuned into the initial GOP primary’s results. Cornyn’s supporters are hoping the senator can finish close behind Paxton, giving them an indication that a Cornyn runoff win could be more feasible. 

• POSSIBILITIES. Paxton is in a formidable position against Cornyn, a prospect that Majority Leader John Thune said could make the race more expensive and more flippable “depending on who the Democrats nominate.” (Politico)

• UNDERDOG. State Rep. James Talarico (D) continues to view himself as the “underdog” in the Democratic primary as he faces Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-30). Talarico is implicitly grouping Crockett into the Democratic establishment, and selling himself as the only candidate that won’t accept corporate PAC contributions. 

• DISAGREE. Crockett disagrees with Talarico’s assertion, calling attention to the more than $20 million spent on his behalf. (KTVT)

• CHURCH. Both Democrats are tapping into churches ahead of Tuesday’s primary. “Talarico has made his church’s ethos of compassion central to his campaign, while … Crockett is tapping into the civic power of Black churches.” (Texas Tribune)

• CELEBRITY TIME. Rapper Cardi B endorsed Crockett in the Democratic primary through an Instagram story. (Hotline reporting)

• LATEST FEATURE. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has spent $3.4 million on ads featuring Crockett in the hopes of boosting GOP turnout in the primaries and the general election and elevating Crockett in her Democratic primary. A pair of ads group Crockett with other Democratic figures, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY 14), and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D). (New York Times) 

Hotline's House News

Curated by James A. Downs and Hannah Marr

REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP: South Carolina Proposal Could Backfire, Republican Says

The referendum to repeal Utah’s anti-gerrymandering Proposition 4 law “appears headed to the ballot.” It is now 86 signatures shy of the statewide goal, and on Wednesday the campaign “crossed the 8% threshold in five more Senate districts, bringing the total to 14 of the required 26.” However, a countercampaign to remove signatures from the repeal is underway and threatens the GOP effort. The current pace puts the repeal over the line in 27 districts, meaning if two were to fall under the threshold, the repeal effort would fail. Several districts have already qualified with margins of under 200, making them vulnerable to the countercampaign. (Utah Political Watch)

• VIRGINIA. All six of Virginia’s Democrats are backing the state’s redistricting efforts, with the group penning a letter to voters urging them to support the amendment that would allow state legislators to redraw their districts. Their support is a “big deal,” given “some members were privately hesitant about a map that was aggressively gerrymandered.”

• YOU’VE GOT MAIL. In the letter, the members shared that while they support banning gerrymandering nationwide, they support the amendment as a “necessary response” to President Trump’s redistricting efforts in red states. (Punchbowl News)

• MORE VIRGINIA. The Washington County Board of Supervisors unanimously passed a resolution opposing Virginia redistricting on Tuesday night, citing concerns with Democrats’ plan to expand the VA-09 seat—home to Washington County. The board said it will make it more difficult for lawmakers to serve their constituents. It also argues the new map would dilute representation of rural Virginia. Board of Supervisors Chairman Dwayne Ball also expressed discontent with the redistricting’s timing given the upcoming 2030 census, which he said will likely lead to redistricting again. (WJHL)

• SOUTH CAROLINA. “A Republican-backed redistricting consultant told S.C. House lawmakers that a proposed redraw of the state’s congressional map could backfire and harm Republicans more than help.” The consultant, John Morgan, previously helped redraw the South Carolina map. He said that a potential redraw to axe the state’s lone Democratic seat could backfire to produce a 5-2 Republican-leaning map. 

• STATE OF PLAY. A South Carolina redraw hasn’t gained much momentum, but members of the state’s Freedom Caucus have pushed to eliminate Rep. Jim Clyburn’s (D-06) seat. Morgan also warned the map could face legal hurdles to maintain standards such as continuity and preserving communities of interest. (Charleston Post and Courier)

• RETRIBUTION TOUR. Trump continued his crusade to oust Indiana lawmakers who opposed the redistricting plan. He endorsed opponents to state Sens. Travis Holdman (R), Jim Buck (R), and Greg Walker (R), all of whom voted to reject the proposed Indiana map. He’s now endorsed candidates running against six opponents of the lines. (WXIN)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Rahm Emanuel Tells All

The 2006 and 2026 cycles “aren’t identical, but party officials agree they rhyme. Health care, gas prices, and cost of living have all emerged as key Democratic campaign issues heading into November.” Then-DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel (D) noted there are some warning signs for Democrats, such as the fewer number of seats because of redistricting and the financial disparity between Republicans and Democrats, but Emanuel “projected confidence in the trends that have helped the minority in the past.”

• MAJOR ISSUE. Party operatives who spoke to Hotline about 2006 pointed to corruption emerging as a key issue for Democrats, just as it did 20 years ago. President Trump “and his family have inked foreign real estate and crypto deals, netting billions of dollars” since his return to the White House, and several private companies have donated to his ballroom renovations. (Hotline reporting)

• ENDORSEMENTS. Defend the Vote, an outside group which backs candidates supporting pro-democracy reforms, endorsed a slate of Democratic candidates across the battlefield. The group backed fisherman Bill Hill in AK-AL, state Assembylmember Jasmeet Bains in CA-22, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott in IA-03, teacher Jake Johnson in MN-01, Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett in NJ-07, Army veteran Cait Conley in NY-17, Rep. Christian Menefee (TX-18), former Rep. Ben McAdams in UT-01, former Rep. Elaine Luria in VA-02, and emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman in WI-01. (Hotline reporting) 

• HONEST MIKE. Speaker Mike Johnson told Newsmax following the State of the Union that if “we lose the midterms, heaven forbid, it would be the end of the Trump presidency in a real effect.” The president would labor to pass any meaningful legislation, and “Democrats have already signaled that if they take back the House, the final two years of Trump’s time in office will be filled with investigations of the Republican administration.” (Washington Post)

• ANOTHER ENDORSEMENT. The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC endorsed smokejumper Sam Forstag (D) in the Democratic primary to take on Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT 01). (release) 

PRIMARY ROUNDUP: Quarter of Voters Remain Undecided in IL-09 Poll

A Public Policy Polling survey (Feb. 20-21; 501 LVs; +/-4.4%) of IL-09 Democrats found Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss (D) leading with 24%. Progressive influencer Kat Abughazaleh (D) had 17% and state Sen. Laura Fine (D) received 16%. 22% of voters are undecided with less than a month before the March 17 primary. (Evanston RoundTable)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Biss appears to be a modest favorite based on a litany of independent and internal polling, but a lot can change in the next three weeks—especially considering the 22% of undecided voters. Given Abughazaleh’s favor with younger voters, according to the poll, she may still have a shot if she can mobilize voters. Fine’s strength with older Democrats, a more reliable primary voting bloc, keeps her in the running. It’s now up to which candidate can make a closing argument that resonates beyond their core base and translate potential support into turnout. 

• DARK MONEY MOVES. After AIPAC’s spending in a New Jersey special election unintentionally boosted a progressive candidate, attention turned to the looming IL-09 contest, where the center-left Fine has received AIPAC-aligned support. Some local Democrats don’t believe the spending—which has criticized Biss—will necessarily move voters toward the more progressive Abughazaleh. 

• THEORY OF THE CASE. Longtime Illinois strategist David Axelrod said he believes voters will filter through the message if “people recognize the source as AIPAC by another name” and backfire for Fine. He thought it less likely than the NJ-11 special that the ads would boost Abughazaleh. (Politico Illinois)

• KY-04. Rep. Thomas Massie (R) is openly mocking President Trump while facing one of his endorsed primary challengers, turning the race into a test of whether GOP voters value loyalty to Trump over Massie, who has pushed back very publicly against Trump in his charge to release the Jeffrey Epstein files. 

• DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD. Massie’s Epstein files crusade has earned him “international acclaim” because of his role in “toppling key figures in foreign governments and exposing a web of impropriety among the global rich and powerful.” But he’s not been without backlash, especially from those aligned with Trump, who say his push to get the files released are an attempt to hurt Trump and a distraction from what they think Massie should be focused on.

• CLAWS OUT. Massie’s main challenger, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein (R), has taken the opposite approach. He’s aligned with the president on almost every matter, whether that be tariffs or his opinion on the federal debt, and has also called the congressman a “Judas.” (NOTUS)

COLORADO 08: Female Candidate Depicted as Piñata at Forum

Former state Rep. Shannon Bird (D) was depicted as a piñata because of her absence at a forum on immigration this week. COLOR Latina and Working Families Power, “two influential progressive organizations,” hosted the event, where Bird’s record on immigration was scrutinized. The candidates and organizers “repeatedly mocked and laughed at the piñata. … Wynn Howell, the state director of the Working Families Power, quipped they wouldn't destroy the piñata because ‘we don't beat women.’” Bird is the only woman in the race to take on Rep. Gabe Evans (R). (Axios Denver)

Hotline's States News

Curated by Abby Turner

STATE OF THE STATE: Whitmer Delivers Final State of the State Address 

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) will focus on “childhood education and trying to put more money in Michiganders’ pockets” in her final year as governor, she detailed in her State of the State address. 

• BACK TO SCHOOL. Whitmer said her budget includes the largest targeted literacy investment in state history, including “teaching reading skills earlier, and fully funding free, full-day pre-kindergarten for all children to set up that early success.”
• ON HEALTH CARE. She criticized federal cuts to Medicaid, and proposed a plan to “cap interest rates on medical debt, prevent medical debt from showing up on credit reports, require hospitals to set up financial assistance programs for patients, and would ban liens or foreclosures on homes because of medical debt.” (Michigan Advance)

POLLING ROUNDUP: Top Three Democrats Emerge in CA GOV Polling 

A Public Policy Institute of California survey (Feb. 3-11; 1,049 LVs; +/-3.9%) found a five-way tie in the gubernatorial primary. Former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R) had 14%, former Rep. Katie Porter (D) had 13%, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) had 12, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-13) had 11%, and 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer (D) had 10%. 30% supported other candidates and 10% were unsure. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. In California’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, voters and party delegates are sending different signals about who the party’s frontrunners should be, a disconnect that’s unlikely to thin the crowded field. Recent polling shows Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer leading among voters. But at Saturday’s state party convention, Swalwell led in delegate count, followed by former state Controller Betty Yee (D) and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D), who have polled at the bottom of the ticket. Yee and Becerra have long been in and around state politics, making them familiar faces to party regulars. With mixed cues from voters and delegates, lower-polling candidates have little incentive to drop out. Party leaders, who fear the possibility of two Republicans advancing to the general election, may ultimately need to publicly back voters' top candidates to slim down the field.

• PENNSYLVANIA. A Quinnipiac University poll (Feb. 19-23; 836 RVs; +/-4.7%) of the Pennsylvania governor’s race found Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) leading state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R), 55%-37%, with 6% undecided. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Despite the state GOP’s effort to consolidate around a single candidate early in the cycle, it looks it won’t be enough to topple Shapiro. 66% of those polled haven’t heard enough about her, making it hard to compete with the favorable Shapiro. 

• NEW YORK. A Marist poll (Feb. 16-19; 1,442 RVs; +/-3.3%) found Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) leading Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R), 50%-33%. 2% said they would support a different candidate and 15% were undecided. 

• APPROVE. Hochul’s approval rating is at 46%, the highest since October 2021. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The tide has turned for Hochul. She was once seen as an unpopular, possibly vulnerable incumbent. With Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-21) out of the race, and a rising national profile, this is her race to lose. 

• WISCONSIN. Marquette Law School poll (Feb. 11-19; 394 RVs; +/-6.3%) found two-thirds of voters remain undecided in the Democratic primary. State Rep. Francesca Hong (D) had 11%, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) had 10%, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D) had 6%, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) had 3%. Other candidates polled at 2% or below. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Hong, Barnes, and Rodriguez are statistically tied in this poll. Hong is a self-described Democratic socialist, and has been compared to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D). The brand might work in the Big Apple, but Wisconsinites are unlikely to elect a Democratic socialist in the primary or general election. 

ARIZONA: Governor’s Race Tests MAGA’s Statewide Power 

With Rep. Andy Biggs (R-05) as GOP frontrunner and as Arizona “Republicans struggle to regain control, they may once again put forward a candidate in the general that’s favored by the party’s hard-right flank, a strategy that’s been a losing formula in recent statewide elections.” 

• GOING STATEWIDE. President Trump has made gains in the Grand Canyon state and the “state’s Republican Party has since been remade in Trump’s image.” But the shift hasn’t been as successful in statewide races. “Arizona hasn’t elected a Republican member of the U.S. Senate since 2016, nor a Republican governor since 2018.” (AP)

CALIFORNIA: Silicon Valley Hits the Airwaves for Matt Mahan 

An independent expenditure committee backed by Silicon Valley executives is spending $4.8 million on TV ads backing San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan’s (D) bid for governor. 

• WHAT TO SEE. “The two 30-second ads highlight the Democrat’s life story—being raised in a working-class family and working on a grounds crew and as a middle school teacher—and his accomplishments leading the state’s third-largest city.” The ads begin airing today. 
• BEHIND THE CURTAIN. Businessman Rick Caruso (D), who passed on bids for governor and Los Angeles mayor, is involved with the effort. (Los Angeles Times)

GEORGIA: GOP Fields Turns Into Two-Man Race 

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) and health care executive Rick Jackson (R) have effectively turned the GOP primary into a two-man race, and “are trading blows as if” state Attorney General Chris Carr (R) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) “aren’t even in the race.” 

• APPLE OF TRUMP’S EYE. “Jackson’s ads, paid for by his personal fortune, are everywhere. So is his message: he’s the outsider who’ll be” President Trump’s “favorite governor,” prompting Trump-endorsed Jones to turn all of his attention to Jackson. Jones has “launched a media counteroffensive, also largely funded by his personal wealth, to remind voters he secured Trump’s endorsement months ago.

• IN THE STATE HOUSE. Allies of Jones in the Legislature are “pushing legislation that would bar candidates for governor from running if they have a financial interest in state contracts.” Jackson’s health care companies have done more than $900 million business in Georgia. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

• DEM FIELD SHRINKS. State Rep. Ruwa Romman (D) dropped out of the governor’s race and will instead run for an open state Senate seat. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

WISCONSIN: DLCC Backs State Supreme Court Candidate with Five-Figure Investment

The DLCC is investing five-figures, the maximum legal contribution, to Wisconsin Court of Appeals Judge Chris Taylor (D) in the race for state supreme court and spotlighting her candidacy ahead of the April 7 election, according to a release first shared with Hotline. Taylor faces Wisconsin Court of Appeals Judge Maria Lazar (R) for the open seat on the bench. If Taylor is elected, liberals will hold onto the court majority through 2030. The race comes a year after $115 million was spent in the state supreme court race where liberals clung to their majority, becoming the most expensive judicial race ever in the country. 

• DLCC PRESIDENT HEATHER WILLIAMS SAYS: “Democrats are on the cusp of flipping the legislature in Wisconsin, but before we get to November, strengthening the liberal majority on the court is imperative to the future of power in this state.” (Hotline reporting)
• IN THE POLLS. Marquette Law School poll (Feb. 11-19; 818 RVs; +/-4.3%) found two-thirds of voters are undecided in the race, which is a little more than a month out. Taylor led Lazar, 17%-12%, with 66% undecided. (release

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. For how much attention last year’s state Supreme Court race got because of former Trump adviser Elon Musk’s hefty investments, this race is remaining relatively quiet on a national level. Both campaigns have a lot of work to do in the next five weeks to boost name ID and bring out voters.

Overlooked: There’s A First Time For Everything

Written by Hannah Marr

When former President Clinton appears for his deposition Friday, he will enter uncharted constitutional territory by becoming the first former president compelled to testify before Congress in a closed-door investigative proceeding. The extraordinary step comes as the House intensifies its months-long probe into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Clinton has acknowledged flying on Epstein’s plane in the early 2000s but denies wrongdoing and says he cut off contact years before Epstein’s 2019 arrest. Still, with arrests abroad—including former Prince Andrew—and mounting pressure on Congress to deliver results, nearly 19 members of the House Oversight Committee are expected to press the former first couple for answers. The spectacle highlights both the political stakes and the rarity of forcing a former commander-in-chief to answer lawmakers’ questions under subpoena.

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